Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Radar hits, SEAD, F-16s, & Girkin Having a Go!
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Table of Contents 📖
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"If you're going to attack, you've got to use a lot of people, a lot of mechanised equipment, combined arms working well, and you've got to have really good artillery support and aerial support as well. But that's not happening. If you have these half-arsed attempts at attacking, you will lose more people."
And here is the summary:
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as an extra Ukraine War Update providing additional nuggets of information to give a greater understanding of the war at large.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Importance of Radar Stations
- Ukrainian long-range artillery hit and destroyed two Russian radar stations overnight, which is hugely important
- Radar stations detect drone, aircraft, helicopter and missile activity, allowing air defense systems to engage threats
- Taking out radar is part of SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations, usually done by aircraft firing anti-radiation missiles
- Destroying radar stations allows Ukrainian aerial activity to operate with less threat and is a big loss for Russia
Igor Girkin's Criticism
- There is tension between the Russian military leadership, Wagner PMC, and military bloggers like Igor Girkin
- Girkin has been very critical of Russian military decision making and lack of clear objectives for troops on the ground
- When Girkin criticizes Russia it lends more credibility since it is "enemy attestation" rather than just Ukrainian propaganda
- Girkin claims the Russian offensives in Marinka, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar have stalled due to heavy infantry losses and lack of artillery ammunition
- He says attacking troops are at a disadvantage to Ukrainian defenders who have good artillery spotting and support
Russian Artillery Struggles
- Multiple sources indicate Russia is struggling with artillery ammunition supplies
- The average Russian artillery fire has dropped from 60,000 shells per day at the peak to around 15-20,000 now
- This is forcing Russia to change tactics and send infantry ahead without proper artillery support
- It remains unclear if Russia can solve the shell supply problem as they have already tapped into Belarusian storage
- Meanwhile, Western countries like Germany are ramping up production of artillery shells
Delays in Western Aid
- The ISW argues that delays in providing Ukraine with long-range fires, air defense systems, and tanks have limited their ability to conduct larger counter-offensives
- Endogenous factors in Ukrainian military and political decision-making have also contributed to delaying offensives
- Indicators that Russia was vulnerable emerged in May-June 2022, but the West did not fundamentally change the scale and type of aid provided
- Recent commitments to send tanks are important but the delay may have cost Ukraine a window to counter-attack this winter
- The West should not conclude future counter-offensives are impossible based on a timeline imposed by their own delays in sending aid
Wrap up
Jonathan notes he has more to cover so will split this update into two parts. He asks viewers to like, subscribe, share and also check out Orest Zub's YouTube channel which has interesting views on the war from a Ukrainian perspective. Jonathan also mentions Orest recently interviewed him.
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