Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Bridge Bang, Gepard Success
Table of Contents 📖
"It's an absolute travesty"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics video - Ukraine War Update NEWS. He will start with the Ukrainian General Staff figures as usual.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - 15th March 2025
🎦 00:12-02:08⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. He notes that losses are high, and the figures should be treated as a guide given that the actual figures are impossible to verify.
- Personnel: 1,400 (high)
- Tanks: 10 (high - a snip above the daily average)
- Armoured fighting vehicles: 20 (high - daily average)
- Artillery systems: 78 (Very high - almost four times the daily average)
- MLRS: 2 (Good haul)
- Anti-aircraft Warfare Systems: 1
- Drones: 180 (Massively high)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 113 (Significant)
Jonathan notes that these losses will likely be related to activity on the 14th March in the recently liberated areas.
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Ukrainian Losses - 14th March 2025 (Andrew Perpetua Data)
🎦 02:08-04:52⏩
Jonathan now reviews Ukrainian losses from two days of data from Andrew Perpetua (noting that the figures were delayed as he was waiting to add footage from Magyar's Birds).
- Overall losses are three times lower than Russian losses for the day but Jonathan cautions that the high number of Russian civilian vehicle losses skews this figure.
- Jonathan observes that Ukrainian losses in terms of combat assets are broadly similar to Russian losses once civilian vehicle losses are discounted
- Lancet drones have been effective in destroying a Ukrainian AHS Krab and a Bogdana self-propelled howitzer
- The Ukrainians have lost a number of M777 howitzers recently (destroyed and damaged) - probably in and around the recent fighting in the Kursk salient
- 3 Ukrainian Tanks have been irretrievably lost
- 2 infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 1 infantry fighting vehicle captured
- A number of M113 and Humvees lost. Jonathan observes that whilst these are not the most high-tech pieces of equipment, the losses are significant
- 4 MRAPS lost - all were Western provided or Ukrainian built.
- A number of Infantry Mobility Vehicles lost (almost certainly all Western provided). Jonathan notes that this was one of the worst days he'd seen for the ratio of Ukrainian equipment destroyed, abandoned and captured to those damaged.
Russian Losses - 14th March 2025 (Andrew Perpetua Data)
🎦 04:52-09:23⏩
Jonathan now reviews Russian losses from two days of data from Andrew Perpetua.
- The Russians have lost a Pantsir S1, a short-medium range air defence system. Jonathan notes that it is unusual for these to be deployed near the front lines as they are generally used to defend strategic targets, sometimes a long way from the front lines (e.g. Crimea). He speculates that this could be a sign that they are being pushed forward due to a lack of other air defence systems, or that the increasing range of Ukrainian FPV drones means that they are now within range of the frontlines.
- The Russians have lost a number of NT-12 Rapira anti-tank guns. He explains that they are rarely seen in modern warfare as it is easier to use a system like a Javelin. They have a relatively short range of 1.5km and are direct fire weapons (e.g. used against a visible target) rather than indirect fire like a howitzer, which fires beyond line of sight.
- The Russians continue to lose a large number of older artillery systems such as the D-30 and the M46 (dating from the 1950s) which Jonathan describes as a "really old bit of kit".
- A number of BMP-2s and BMP-3s were also destroyed
Ukrainian & Russian Losses - 15th March 2025 (Andrew Perpetua Data)
🎦 09:24-13:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the losses for the 15th March (from Andrew Perpetua). He observes that the losses continue to be in favour of the Ukrainians with a roughly 2:1 loss ratio. Combat asset losses are broadly similar but, as before, the number of trucks, ATVs and civilian vehicles destroyed accounts for the higher Russian losses. Jonathan notes losses for both sides.
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Russian Civilian Vehicle Losses
🎦 13:31-14:22⏩
Jonathan notes that whilst civilian vehicles are being used in the headline loss ratio, they should not be discounted as they are being actively used to transport troops and equipment and for attacks, unlike in the early stages of the war where civilian vehicles were commandeered. This has left Russian logistics lines vulnerable to attacks from Ukrainian forces.
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Russian Army Tactical Group Commander Rebels
🎦 14:22-15:12⏩
A video has emerged online of the commander of a Russian army tactical group complaining about low morale and the treatment of his troops. In the video (shared by WarTranslated), the commander complains that his soldiers are being treated like cannon fodder, sent to the front lines with no regard for their safety. Jonathan observes that this highlights the low morale in parts of the Russian army and the scant regard that the Russian command have for the lives of their troops. He questions whether this amounts to a mutiny but concedes that it is significant that the troops are able to publicly vent their anger and frustration.
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Bridge Near Kherson Destroyed in Ukrainian Airstrike
🎦 15:12-17:12⏩
Jonathan reports that a bridge over the Konka River near Kherson (near the settlement of Oleshky) has been destroyed in a Ukrainian airstrike. The bridge is believed to have been used by the Russians to supply troops in the Dnipro River delta area, and potentially for a renewed offensive across the river. The bridge was destroyed by a guided glide bomb (AASM Hammer) launched from a Ukrainian aircraft. Jonathan shows footage of the bridge being hit. He notes that there have been many reports of Russian forces attempting to land troops across the river in recent days.
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Attritional Warfare
🎦 17:12-18:08⏩
Jonathan cites comments made by Malcolm Nance (former US Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer) during an interview with Jake Tapper (CNN) that the Ukrainians appear to be engaging in a form of highly attritional warfare whereby they are drawing the Russians into attacking their defensive positions, inflicting heavy losses as a result. This analysis is supported by the experience of a Russian soldier fighting near the Dnipro River who claimed that his unit was sustaining daily losses of 80 men.
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Sumy Region Update
🎦 18:08-19:02⏩
Jonathan reports that following the Russian withdrawal from the Kursk salient, fighting has now intensified in the Sumy region. Footage has emerged of Russian forces on ATVs attacking Ukrainian positions near the village of Bazivka, south of Novenka. Jonathan notes that it is too early to say whether the Russians have made any gains but cautions that attacks in the border region remain possible.
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Distance Strikes
🎦 19:02-21:38⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight drone and missile attacks. Ukraine reports that Russia launched 90 Shahed-136 drones, of which 47 were shot down by air defences and 33 were disabled by electronic warfare, leaving a probable 10 drones that reached their targets. Jonathan notes that this is around 10% of the attacking force, which is a concern for Ukraine.
- A seven-year old girl was killed in Chernihiv after a Shahed drone struck a residential building.
- An explosion was reported in Izium. Whilst details are scarce, Jonathan speculates that this may have been the result of a successful strike on a military target.
- Jonathan highlights the continued success of the Gepard mobile anti-aircraft system, noting that one unit operating in Western Ukraine has destroyed 26 Shahed drones and 3 cruise missiles - a record for the West Air Command.
Jankoy, Crimea
🎦 21:38-23:09⏩
Jonathan reports that a fire broke out in the vicinity of the village of Izumrodnoye near Jankoy in Crimea. Jonathan explains that Jankoy is a vital logistics hub for Russian forces in southern Ukraine, containing road and rail links as well as a military airbase and storage depots.
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Fires in Southern Ukraine and Crimea
🎦 23:09-26:06⏩
Jonathan references data from Paul Sweeney who tracks thermal data from NASA's FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) satellites. The data indicates a large number of fires burning in Southern Ukraine and Crimea. Jonathan notes that each "spot" of fire can often be multiple fires and speculates that Ukrainian forces may have been much more successful than is being reported in striking Russian targets.
- Jonathan shows footage of a large fire still burning at the Taurapsi oil refinery (which he reported on previously). He notes that the fire, which has been burning for 3 days, is confined to a single fuel tank,
Long Neptune Missiles
🎦 26:06-26:28⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of the new longer-range Neptune anti-ship missile system, which is believed to have a range of around 1,000km. There has been speculation that the Taurapsi oil refinery fire was as a result of a strike from this system. Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer who notes that the standard Neptune missile has been used very successfully to destroy S300 air defence systems in Crimea and that it is likely that the new system is as accurate, if not more so.
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US Volunteers in Ukraine
🎦 26:28-28:39⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a significant increase in applications to join the Ukrainian Foreign Legion from US citizens following Donald Trump's recent comments and statements about Ukraine. The increase follows the release of a video of an encounter between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. Jonathan notes that whilst these volunteers, many of whom are veterans, are desperately needed, their presence is a double-edged sword. He argues that whilst they are militarily valuable, if captured they become valuable bargaining chips for the Russians as demonstrated by the capture and subsequent prisoner exchange of Britons Aiden Aslan and Shaun Pinner (who had been serving with the Ukrainian marines before the war).
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Russian Withdrawal from Sujia
🎦 28:39-29:07⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed that it has withdrawn its forces from Sujia and is now positioned along the Ukrainian border. Footage had emerged a few days previously showing Russian troops in the town.
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French AWACS Mission Over the Black Sea
🎦 29:07-31:05⏩
Jonathan reports that two days previously, a French E-3F AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft, escorted by two Rafale fighter jets, flew a surveillance mission over the Black Sea, close to Crimea. He notes that whilst similar missions have been flown by the British using Rivet Joint and Eurofighter Typhoons, this mission was conducted unilaterally by the French and not as part of a NATO operation. Jonathan shares a post from Twitter user Visegrad24 reporting on the mission and speculates that this could be a sign that France is seeking to fill a security gap left by the US.
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US Cuts Funding for Voice of America
🎦 31:05-32:21⏩
Jonathan expresses his dismay and disbelief at the recent decision by the US to cut funding for Voice of America, Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, as well as funding for the Kennan Institute and the Wilson Centre (US think tanks). He describes the decision as unconscionable, arguing that it plays directly into the hands of Russia. He states that he is "flabbergasted" by the decision and cannot fathom the logic behind it.
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Putin and Trump Meeting
🎦 32:21-33:14⏩
Jonathan reports that Putin's assistant, Yuri Ushakov has said that a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is "being prepared" and will be organised once the need arises. He also notes that Russia has rejected calls for a ceasefire, dismissing them as a ploy to give Ukraine time to rearm. Jonathan also expresses his surprise at comments made by US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, following a telephone call with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, in which he said that the US would continue to work to restore ties with Russia. Jonathan points out that this contradicts previous statements he made before becoming Secretary of State, when he was critical of Russia.
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Petition to expel Russia from the UN
🎦 33:14-34:08⏩
Jonathan once again urges viewers to sign the change.org petition calling for Russia to be expelled from the UN. He describes the number of signatures as "criminally low" and appeals to his viewers to share the petition.
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Wrap Up
🎦 34:08-34:11⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking his viewers for watching.
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