Ukraine War Update EXTRA - Proof of Operation Spiderweb Success: Plane & Missile Analysis
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Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video.
- He announces the video will focus on the success of "Operation Spiderweb", the Ukrainian mission involving drones launched from four air bases, which caused significant destruction to Russian strategic long-range bombers.
Russian Ministry of Defence's Initial Claims of Retaliation and Jonathan's Assessment
🎦 00:20-01:14⏩
- Jonathan notes that Russia's latest attack was a retaliation for Operation Spiderweb, as confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) calling the Ukrainian actions "terrorist acts".
- The Russian MOD claimed a "massive strike with high-precision, long-range air, sea and land-based weapons, as well as attack drones".
- Jonathan, however, asserts that Russia's attack was largely unsuccessful, hitting mostly civilian infrastructure with limited evidence of military targets being struck.
Ukrainian Air Defence Performance and Interception Rates
🎦 01:15-01:55⏩, 02:32-03:39⏩
- Ukraine achieved a really good interception rate against the Russian drones and missiles, primarily because the attacks targeted major cities where air defences are strongest.
- In contrast, areas closer to the front lines like Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Kostiantynivka, which lack high-quality air defences, see a higher success rate (around 35%) for Russian drones.
- Out of 407 drones sent into Ukraine, 368 were taken out (199 shot down, 169 suppressed by electronic warfare) – a decent interception rate.
- Ukrainian air defence also intercepted 4 out of 6 Iskander ballistic missiles, 30 out of 36 KH-101 cruise missiles, and 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles. Only one KH-31P anti-radar missile got through.
Reduced Russian Missile and Aircraft Numbers as Evidence of Operation Spiderweb Success
🎦 03:39-04:16⏩
- Jonathan presents two key reasons why Operation Spiderweb is considered a success:
- Fewer missiles sent: The reduced number of missiles launched by Russia is a direct consequence of fewer planes being available to fire them.
- Type of planes used: The specific types of aircraft deployed by Russia also indicate Spiderweb's impact.
- He notes that the General Staff data for last night's attacks might not yet reflect all cruise missile hits, as they typically occur in the early hours and will appear in reports the following day.
Analysis of Russian Missile Strike Volume Compared to Historical Data
🎦 04:16-07:10⏩
- Jonathan points out that compared to other major attacks throughout the war, the 36 missiles intercepted last night place this event quite low in the top 20 largest Russian strikes.
- He highlights that Russia framed this attack as a significant retaliation for Ukraine's "most successful operations" (Spiderweb), even claiming "job done" and that all designated objects were hit.
- Despite this assertion, the scale of the Russian response, in terms of both drones and cruise/ballistic missiles, was not a record and only a "medium amount" were sent, suggesting a diminished capacity.
Russian Use of Tu-160 Bombers Signals Tu-95MS Shortage
🎦 07:10-09:43⏩
- Citing MAX-25 and Militiani (via Defence Express), Jonathan explains that Russia only deployed seven bombers (five Tu-95MS and two Tu-160s) for the recent attack.
- The deployment of Tu-160 bombers, Moscow's primary nuclear-capable aircraft, is unusual for conventional cruise missile strikes and indicates a potential shortage of the typically used Tu-95MS bombers.
- This suggests Russia is being forced to use more costly and complex aircraft due to the impact of Operation Spiderweb.
Operational Differences and Higher Costs of Tu-160 Bombers
🎦 09:43-10:34⏩
- Militiani details why the Tu-95MS is generally favoured for missile strikes:
- Higher airframe and engine longevity due to lower flight loads.
- Simpler construction and use of turboprop engines.
- Suitability for long-duration patrol missions at cruising speeds (750km/h at 8-10km altitude), causing less wear.
- In contrast, the Tu-160, while faster and more powerful, is significantly more complex to operate. Its variable-sweep wings and design for supersonic speeds impose heavier structural loads, leading to faster degradation and much higher operational costs in terms of fuel and maintenance.
Operation Spiderweb Confirmed as Cause for Tu-95MS Shortage
🎦 10:34-11:22⏩
- Jonathan concludes that the increased use of Tu-160 bombers is likely a direct result of losses sustained during Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) "Operation Spiderweb".
- During that operation, at least eight Tu-95 bombers were reportedly hit, either destroyed or damaged, at Russian air bases.
- This provides strong evidence that Operation Spiderweb was a success, impacting not only the number of cruise missiles Russia could fire but also the quantity and type of aircraft available to launch them.
Wrap up
🎦 11:22-11:36⏩
- Jonathan reiterates that Operation Spiderweb was a great success.
- He thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, expressing appreciation for their support.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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