Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Terminator, Crimea, Wagner, & Attrition
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is the reality of war. So really now it should be at the point of how do we stop the war as quickly as possible where the right side prevail and moral rectitude prevails."
Hello Team!
Jonathan reflects on the grim reality that lines on a map in this war represent human lives lost. He argues the quickest way to stop the war is to provide Ukraine with as many weapons as possible to win efficiently on the battlefield, even though it means enabling more killing. Tea is not mentioned in this intro.
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Crimea is Decisive Terrain
Former US general Ben Hodges argues that Crimea is decisive terrain and that making it untenable for Russian forces with long-range precision weapons and armoured forces to sever the land bridge would compel them to leave. Jonathan suggests that providing Ukraine with a couple hundred ATACMS missiles to saturate Crimea could hobble Russian logistics and take Crimea "out of the game", representing a major setback for Russia.
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Terminator Fighting Vehicle Footage
Footage is shown of a Russian BMPT Terminator fighting vehicle engaging a tree line with its dual 30mm autocannons. The volume of fire is extremely destructive and would be devastating against infantry. The Terminator is built on a T-72 tank chassis but with different weaponry, including anti-tank missiles, grenade launchers and a coaxial machine gun along with the autocannons.
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Lancet Loitering Munition Strikes
Russian Lancet loitering munitions continue to be very effective against Ukrainian targets. Footage shows Lancets destroying two US-provided M777 howitzers and damaging a third near Kreminna. Ukraine does not seem to have an effective countermeasure against the Lancet at this time, which is a significant advantage for Russia.
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Wagner Group Faces Collapse
According to reports, the Russian Wagner Group private military company is struggling with major losses and having difficulty recruiting, with only 10,000 fighters remaining at the front out of the 50,000 recruited, many from prisons. The rest have been killed, gone missing, deserted or surrendered. The first Wagner fighter has defected to the West in Norway and offered to expose war crimes. Wagner's troubles coincide with Putin trying to shift responsibility back to the conventional Russian military. While Wagner has had some success in Bakhmut, it has come at a huge cost and the offensive may be culminating due to unsustainable casualties, although the core Wagner forces maintain some advantages in training and equipment over Ukrainian troops.
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Wars of Attrition - Troops and Economy
Jonathan analyzes the dynamics of the attritional aspects of the war. In terms of troop losses at the front lines, Ukraine may have a slight advantage but is still losing many experienced soldiers that are hard to replace. However, when factoring in the effects of HIMARS strikes on Russian rear areas, this asymmetric advantage shifts casualty ratios more in Ukraine's favour. The other attritional factor is economic, where Russia will struggle to sustain a prolonged war if sanctions and reduced energy revenues deplete its budget, while Ukraine has the financial backing of the West. To win, Ukraine needs to either hold out until Russia collapses economically, or gain a decisive battlefield advantage through superior military technology and capabilities provided by the West to compensate for Russia's larger population and military. Which side can endure the attritional damage longest remains a key question.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and especially those who have generously donated to the channel via Buy Me a Coffee and PayPal, giving shout-outs to some top supporters. He appreciates the high-quality comments and conversation that takes place on his video threads. He will be back with another update tomorrow.
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