Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Mr D Black, EU Armament, Defence Lines, & Water
"The only option is to really try and surrender in some way."
18/06/2023
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses how Russia cannot win in Ukraine as they don't have the forces to occupy a nation of 44 million people. Their only option is to prolong the conflict in hopes the West will lose interest, but many countries are committing to long-term support packages for Ukraine. The war is in a stalemate until one side uses up their reserves. Jonathan admits to sometimes having unrealistic expectations for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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Correction: Senator Dick Black
Jonathan apologizes for incorrectly stating Dick Black was a US Senator. He clarifies that Black was actually a Virginia State Senator until 2020. Despite this, Jonathan maintains that Black is parroting Russian propaganda with his claims about Ukrainian losses in the counteroffensive.
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Russian Defensive Lines
The Russians have built extensive defensive lines in occupied Ukraine, some 2-3 lines deep. YouTube commenter Thierry suggests the Ukrainian tactic should be to engage the first line of defense to force Russia to commit reserves to hold it. This would leave the secondary lines weakly defended for a breakthrough. Jonathan ponders if Russia would tactically withdraw to secondary lines rather than fight to the end. The lines are built along key roads and rivers.
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Rearmament of Europe
Jonathan discusses a conversation with a German-American commenter "defective" on European rearmament after the Ukraine war:
- The EU cannot survive as an independent power without rearming. It is currently reliant on the US for security.
- The EU will need to adapt to better coordinate defense policy across all members. This may lead to a federated Europe or a "multi-speed" EU.
- There are opportunities for countries like Poland and Sweden to elevate their position, while Germany's leadership is cast in doubt due to its Russia ties.
- The shifting political landscape in Europe with the rise of right-wing parties will influence the future of the EU.
Environmental and Humanitarian Issues
- Photos show dead fish and wild boars washing up on beaches in Russian-occupied Kherson region due to the Kakhovka Dam collapse.
- People are still going to the beach in these areas despite the war and pollution.
- A Russian Telegram message indicates their frontline troops are facing drinking water shortages and requesting bottled water. Jonathan believes Ukraine has a logistical advantage supplying their troops.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks his supporters on Buy Me a Coffee and channel members. He appreciates the wonderful community and will continue the discussion on thermal imaging tomorrow.
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