Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: Gerasimov Almost Certainly Dead
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00-00:35⏩ |
| 2 | Gerasimov 'Almost Certainly Dead' | 00:35-05:34⏩ |
| 3 | Wrap up | 05:34-05:40⏩ |
"I think it's incredibly likely that Gerasimov is no more. I think that's incredibly significant... but might end up not being particularly significant because the Russians do such a good job of managing the information space."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan opens the breaking news update with a brief mention of the recent Ukrainian loss of two Mi-8 helicopters, resulting in the death of the pilots. He promises to elaborate further in his upcoming "Hits and Losses" analysis.
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Gerasimov 'Almost Certainly Dead'
🎦 00:35-05:34⏩
Jonathan analyses the speculation surrounding the prolonged absence of General Gerasimov, Russia's top military official, from public view. He cites Russian media reports suggesting Gerasimov's potential dismissal, with Colonel General Poznikir temporarily assuming his responsibilities. Jonathan finds the "no report says where is Gerasimov?" narrative unconvincing, considering his critical role in the ongoing war. He highlights the oddity of Gerasimov's brief, soundless reappearance in a medal-awarding ceremony, dismissing it as strategically released stock footage. Drawing parallels to the case of Admiral Sokolov, the Black Sea Fleet commander presumed dead after a similar vanishing act, Jonathan deems it highly probable that Gerasimov is either dead or incapacitated. He argues that this conclusion aligns more convincingly with the available evidence than the alternative—that Gerasimov is alive and simply incompetent, a notion contradicted by Putin's reported preference for less capable subordinates. Jonathan acknowledges the possibility, however improbable, that Gerasimov's absence might be explained by factors yet unknown. He ponders the potential significance of Gerasimov's demise for the war's trajectory, acknowledging the general's vast military experience while remaining uncertain about the actual impact, given Russia's tight control over information. He concludes by inviting viewer opinions on the matter.
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Wrap up
🎦 05:34-05:40⏩
Jonathan encourages viewers to share their thoughts and signs off, promising to return soon with more updates.
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