Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update - Soledar Woes
Table of Contents 📖
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"There's an asymmetry there that is kind of a seesaw dipping in favour of Ukraine with each and every single week and each and every single assistance package, equipment package, aid package, it goes to Ukraine."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on frontline developments. He notes a decrease in Russian losses compared to the previous week.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian and Ukrainian Losses
- Ukraine shot down 2 Russian Su-25 aircraft and 2 Ka-52 attack helicopters in the past 2 days
- Russia shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 over Bakhmut, a significant loss for Ukraine
- Ukraine struck Tokmak, possibly killing around 200 newly mobilized Russian soldiers
Incidents in Russia
The Russian Foreign Ministry building in Moscow caught fire, with no reason given. This could potentially indicate partisan activity in Russia.
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Ceasefire and Fighting
Russia called a ceasefire but has done significant fighting and taken the most land in months. According to Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister, Russia has never adhered to ceasefire agreements in the 9 years of war since 2014.
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U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine
The U.S. announced another significant military aid package for Ukraine, including:
- 50 Bradley IFVs with TOW missiles and ammunition
- 100 M113 armored APCs
- 55 MRAPs
- 138 Humvees
- 18 155mm self-propelled howitzers with support vehicles
- Ammunition, missiles, rockets, mines, and other equipment
The 18 155mm self-propelled howitzers are likely M109s, which are proving very useful in Ukraine despite being older platforms.
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Tanks for Ukraine
Finland promised to provide Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine if other countries also donate Leopards. Meanwhile, Russia is sending old Soviet-era BMD-1 amphibious IFVs from the 1960s to the front. Jonathan notes the widening asymmetry in equipment between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
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Russian Missile Stockpiles
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has used up large portions of its missile stockpiles:
- 11% of Iskander missiles remaining
- 9% of Kalibr cruise missiles remaining
- 16% of Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles remaining
- 19% of total strategic missiles remaining
Russia's tactical ballistic missile stocks like the S-300 are in better shape. If true, this would leave Russia's stockpiles severely depleted in a potential war with NATO.
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Frontline Update: Kupyansk to Kreminna
- Positional fighting continues northeast of Kupyansk
- Ukraine may be closing in on Tavulzhanka and Vilshana based on reported Russian shelling
- Fighting ongoing around Stelmakhivka and Kuzmivka
Frontline Update: Kreminna to Bakhmut
- Fighting reported west of Kreminna near Dibrova
- Russian attacks repelled near Spirne
- Heavy fighting in Soledar, with Russia making gains. Ukraine may have conducted a tactical withdrawal.
- Wagner Group fighters visually confirmed in central Soledar, with Ukraine pulling back to the north
- Threat of Russia capturing Ukrainian ammunition stored in Soledar salt mines
- Pressure on Bakhmut increasing as Russia advances. Repelled attacks near Klishchiivka.
Frontline Update: Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia
- Repelled Russian attacks in Pervomaiske near Avdiivka
- Minor Russian gains in Marinka being amplified in Russian media
- No significant changes on the Zaporizhzhia front
Kinburn Peninsula
Russian sources claim Ukraine is preparing an operation on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, with reconnaissance activities underway. Fighting also reported on islands in the Dnipro River delta.
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Wrap Up
While the situation looks difficult for Ukraine in Bakhmut and Soledar, Jonathan believes Russia lacks the capacity to achieve significant long-term gains or win the war. He notes the widening asymmetry in equipment and training favoring Ukraine with each passing week and new aid package.
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