Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Biden is bad, but Putin and Iran are infinitely worse."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:26⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second part of his Ukraine War Update. He's a bit behind today as he's editing the first instalment of his video diary of his time in Ukraine. It's a lot of work but he's looking forward to sharing it soon.

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Canada

🎦 00:26-01:11⏩

The Canadian parliament has called for 83,000 CRV7 missiles to be sent to Ukraine from Canadian Armed Forces surplus stock. These are powerful air-to-ground weapons that were once the most powerful in their class, and were designed to defeat Russian hangars and aircraft. Jonathan notes that this is good news if they can be adapted for use with Ukrainian aircraft.

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Poland

🎦 01:11-01:37⏩

Since the start of 2024, Ukraine has received over 100 Polish Oncilla armoured vehicles. These were jointly developed by Ukraine and Poland, and are equipped with a 12.7mm machine gun. The vehicles also have mine resistant ambush protection (MRAP), including double mine bottom protection. Jonathan notes that these vehicles look very useful.

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Lithuania

🎦 01:37-02:05⏩

Lithuania will join an initiative started by Czech Republic to purchase ammunition for Ukraine. Several other European countries have already signed up to this coalition, which aims to purchase ammunition for Ukraine from a third country (or countries). There is speculation that the ammunition will be purchased from India, South Africa and/or Turkey. A number of nations have apparently pledged 60% of the cost of the initiative, although some have yet to make a public announcement. Anton Grishchenko has highlighted that Ukrainian forces have a significant shortage of shells.

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France

🎦 02:05-04:11⏩

French President Macron is in Prague to discuss the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine. Jonathan notes how integral Czech Republic has been in supporting Ukraine in general, and specifically with regard to the ammunition package. Macron has been very strong in his rhetoric, stating "we are certainly approaching a moment in our Europe where it will be appropriate not to be cowards. We will have to live up to history and the courage it implies" during a visit to Prague. He has also said that there is war in the fields of Europe. Jonathan believes that this strong rhetoric is good for Ukraine. France has also signed an agreement to invest €5 million in the reconstruction of Chernihiv Oblast.

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EU, US and Australian Academics call for increased Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 06:19-06:50⏩

Nearly 500 professors, researchers, writers and former officials from the EU, US and Australia have written to members of the Ramstein group, calling on them to send more weapons to Ukraine. The appeal argues that the current strategy of providing support "for as long as it takes" is obsolete and that Ukraine needs more in order to win the war.

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US Domestic Politics/Newsmax

🎦 06:50-09:51⏩

In a surprise move that will be welcomed by Ukraine's allies, the CEO of pro-Trump, pro-MAGA news outlet Newsmax, Christopher Ruddy, has urged Mike Johnson to put Ukraine aid to the floor for a vote. Jonathan explains that Newsmax and another right-wing news organisation, OANN, have attempted to muscle in on Fox News' territory as the main source of right-wing news in the US. This follows on from Fox News' out-of-court settlements following lawsuits from Dominion (and an ongoing case from Smartmatic) relating to their coverage of alleged fraud in the 2020 US Presidential election, which cost them $838 million. This has resulted in Fox News being more careful in its reporting about the 2020 election, to the extent that news anchors are told to correct anyone who claims there was election fraud. Jonathan notes how Fox News now frequently state that there's no evidence for this. He believes that Newsmax and OANN see an opportunity to step into the void created by Fox's need to be more careful in its reporting. Both organisations are overtly pro-MAGA and pander to Trump supporters. As such, Jonathan notes that this is good news as it indicates a shift in the narrative of these news organisations, and may result in them becoming more supportive of Ukraine. He describes them as predominantly infotainment rather than news channels. Christopher Ruddy has stated that "Biden is bad, but Putin and Iran are infinitely worse", which Jonathan welcomes, albeit he doesn't agree that Biden is bad!

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Ukraine - Sea Drones

🎦 09:51-14:25⏩

The GUR has announced that sea drones will be used to target Russian aerial targets, which Jonathan believes is very significant. He explains that if these drones are equipped with munitions that this will give Ukraine a mobile air defence capability as they can operate in the Black Sea, including very close to Russian coastlines. This will mean Russian aircraft will no longer be able to operate with impunity in these areas. Jonathan then refers to an article in Ukrainian Pravda titled "How Budanov's Magura drones destroy Russian ships" which was published yesterday, before the most recent attack on a Russian patrol vessel, Sergei Kotov. Jonathan highlights a couple of interesting points relating to the use of Elon Musk's Starlink system to operate the drones. The article explains how the first prototypes, which were developed in 2022, used Starlink as the communication channel but the first mission, which took place on 16th/17th September 2022, failed due to problems with Starlink. This was because of Elon Musk's decision to geofence Starlink in the area around Crimea as he didn't want Starlink to be used to attack Russian assets. However, as Jonathan points out, this isn't a justifiable rationale. He has discussed this in previous videos and highlights that Musk was concerned that this would be escalatory. Jonathan disagrees, stating "Russia just sending things willy-nilly to ukraine but ukraine can't hit back can't hit the things that are firing those those cruise missiles because milan says so". He then goes on to explain that the Ukrainians then addressed this problem and updated the drones, stating "the developers tried to get out of the state of starlink hostages in other words being held hostage by elon musk and they succeeded in modern models almost all functions related to communication control are duplicated then when one channel disappears it is possible to work through a parallel one". Jonathan concludes by pointing out that the drones are no longer reliant on Starlink and that this is a direct consequence of Elon Musk's decision to geofence Starlink.

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Ukraine - Military Mobilization and Economic impact

🎦 14:25-15:20⏩

Denis Shmihal has stated that Ukraine needs 8 taxpayers per soldier in order to ensure the military is sufficiently funded. This follows on from the discussion yesterday about the problems with mobilization, where Jonathan highlighted that for every 100,000 soldiers mobilized, Ukraine needs 800,000 taxpayers to fund them. However, mobilizing this number of soldiers removes them from the workforce and reduces the pool of taxpayers. Jonathan speculates that Shmihal is trying to highlight the issues caused by Zelensky's reluctance to order further mobilization.

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Germany - Taurus Missiles/Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 15:20-16:03⏩

UK has urged Germany to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, in light of the recent leak from the Luftwaffe. The leak, which was orchestrated by Russia, included details about British military personnel in Ukraine. However, Jonathan notes that this appears to have backfired on Russia, as rather than forcing the UK to withdraw personnel, the UK have doubled-down on their calls for Germany to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles, stating "you need to give some tourists now that intercepts out come on mate give some tourists to ukraine". Jonathan believes that this was a very astute move by the UK, as it highlights how Russia has shot themselves in the foot.

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Singapore - F-35 Use in Ukraine

🎦 16:03-17:22⏩

Singapore's Defence Minister has told the country's parliament that US F-35 aircraft are being used in the defence of Ukraine, although he clarified that they are being used by allied pilots to assist Kyiv. Jonathan is puzzled by this, stating "i've got this actually to talk about in the geopolitical segment but i might as well say it now the objective of these so singapore's minister of defense nng has said that american f-35s have been actively engaged in missions over ukraine the objective of these missions is to pinpoint the exact locations of russian anti-aircraft missile systems quote in recent activities the united states has mobilized its f-35s to identify the deployment of russian anti-aircraft missile systems within Ukraine the gathered intelligence is subsequently disseminated to NATO countries shared the chief of singapore's military a Pentagon spokesperson denied the statement of the singaporean defense minister saying the United States does not use F-35 fighter jets in the Ukraine What is going on there Why is that Singaporean coming out with that I just I don't get it I don't get that um what the point of that would be unless it's just someone trying to be overtly pro-Russian uh and and drop the the Americans in it who knows".

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Russia - T-14 Armata Tank

🎦 17:22-18:18⏩

The CEO of Rostec, Sergei Chermazov, has explained that the Russian military is not using the T-14 Armata tank in combat operations because it is too expensive, despite the fact that it is more technologically advanced. The T-14 Armata tank, which is often seen at military parades in Red Square, is prone to breaking down. Jonathan sarcastically states that "it's also the one that got stuck". Whilst Chermazov acknowledges that the T-14 is superior to other tanks, it is easier and cheaper to continue to use T-90s. There are only 20 prototypes of the T-14, although Dom Nichols reported that this figure was actually 200. Regardless, Jonathan believes that these are too unreliable and are not used on the front lines. There have been unconfirmed reports that the tanks are being used at training grounds.

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Russia - Drone Procurement/Corruption

🎦 18:19-19:08⏩

Trent Tanelko has reported on corruption within the Russian MOD procurement process. A Russian military reporter has spoken out about the poor quality of the drones supplied by the MOD and how those produced by two smaller companies have proven to be more effective, including against US-supplied Abrams tanks. The drones procured through official channels have proven to be particularly susceptible to Ukrainian electronic warfare, to the extent that they malfunction and fall out of the sky.

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Russia and Ukraine - Drone Production

🎦 19:08-21:26⏩

Jonathan discusses the difficulty of knowing how many drones are being produced by Ukraine and Russia, noting that there are often contradictory reports about this, especially with regard to domestic production. Whilst a year ago it seemed that Ukraine was the more successful in terms of FPV drone production, there have been claims that Russian volunteer and military efforts have not only caught up, but that they are producing more FPV drones each month. However, Jonathan is skeptical about this and believes that Ukraine are still producing more, based on the data about usage. This is despite claims that Ukraine is producing 100,000 FPV drones per month, plus international donations and assistance through fundraising. He explains that whilst there were reports that Russia was producing 300,000 drones in a certain timeframe (and 50,000 per month), this data is at odds with what is actually being used. Jonathan says that he will be speaking to Daniela this week to discuss this in more detail but notes that based on publicly available data, Russian and Ukrainian drone usage with regard to strikes on personnel and positions is broadly comparable, although Ukraine has a slight advantage. However, when it comes to strikes on vehicles, Ukraine is way ahead. This leads Jonathan to believe that even if Russia is producing more drones, if they're not using them it is irrelevant.

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Russia - RBK-500U Drell Glide Bomb

🎦 21:27-22:13⏩

Russia's RBK-500U Drell Glide Bomb has passed all of the Ministry of Defence's tests and will be mass produced. It uses the Russian GLONASS system for targeting. Jonathan expresses concern about this development as it will give Russia access to more powerful bombs. He notes that this highlights how the globe is entering a new era of militarization.

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China - Military Budget

🎦 22:13-22:18⏩

China has announced that it will be increasing its defence budget by 7.2% this year. Jonathan notes how significant this is, although it is still nowhere near the amount spent by the US. Based on 2022 figures, the US spends more on defence than the next 12 countries combined. However, he is concerned by this development, given China's increasingly assertive foreign policy.

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Germany - Compulsory Military Service

🎦 22:18-23:40⏩

Der Spiegel has reported that Germany is planning to reintroduce compulsory military service. This follows an order by the German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, to reinstate conscription. Germany suspended compulsory military service in 2011 but Pistorius wants to push this through before the next election in Autumn 2025. This is because he believes it would be an unpopular move with voters. Jonathan notes how this is another example of the global move towards militarization.

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Germany - Baltic Air Policing

🎦 23:40-25:06⏩

Germany has announced that it will patrol Baltic airspace in response to the threat from Russia. This will involve stationing six Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets and 200 German soldiers at Latvia's Lielvārde military airfield. The mission, which is due to start at the end of November, will last for at least nine months. Jonathan notes how Germany is becoming increasingly involved in the military response to the threat posed by Russia. This announcement has been met with anger by Russia, with Maria Zakharova, a Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, threatening to expel German journalists from Russia. However, Jonathan believes that this is counterproductive and will only serve to strengthen German resolve and increase support for Ukraine.

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EU - Ukraine to Join Defence Industry Support Scheme

🎦 25:06-26:01⏩

The EU has announced that it will invite Ukraine to become a full member of its Defence Industry Support Scheme. This will support the rebuilding and modernization of the Ukrainian defence industry. It will also help to integrate Ukraine into the European defence industry. Jonathan believes that this is a shrewd move as it will strengthen the EU's defence capabilities.

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Spain - Security Guarantees for Ukraine

🎦 26:01-26:17⏩

Ukraine and Spain have started negotiations on a bilateral agreement about security guarantees.

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Poland - Trade with Russia and Belarus

🎦 26:17-27:06⏩

Despite publicly supporting Ukraine, Poland has been accused of hypocrisy over its trade with Russia and Belarus. Polish farmers have protested against the import of cheap Ukrainian grain, which is transiting through Poland. However, at the same time, banned goods have been imported from Russia and Belarus, costing Ukraine an estimated $3 billion annually. A journalist, Michail Tkach, was arrested by Polish police for photographing trucks importing these goods.

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Ukraine - Drone Procurement

🎦 27:06-27:26⏩

Ukraine has allocated 40 billion hryvnias for the purchase of drones.

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Russia - Acquisition of Armenia

🎦 27:26-28:15⏩

Margarita Simonyan, head of the Russian state-controlled media organization RT (formerly Russia Today), has stated that "in five years, there will be no Armenia", leading many to conclude that Putin is planning on invading and annexing Armenia, particularly given that the US Congress is paralysed.

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EU - Gas Imports from Russia

🎦 28:15-28:25⏩

The Kyiv Independent has reported that the EU's gas imports from Russia have fallen by 71% since 2021.

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Wagner Group - Central African Republic

🎦 28:25-29:14⏩

Images have emerged of people in the Central African Republic wearing Wagner t-shirts. Jonathan notes that this highlights the information war that Russia is waging around the world and how successful this has been, asking his viewers "what's the west doing about that is that a problem go decide".

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Macron - "War has returned to our lands"

🎦 29:14-29:26⏩

Jonathan finishes by quoting Macron, who has said "come and have a go if you think hard enough we are undoubtedly approaching a moment for europe when it is necessary not to be cowards war has has returned to our lands. War has returned to our lands".

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Wrap Up

🎦 29:26-29:31⏩

Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.

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