Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"There is no evidence to date of a great big Russian offensive."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on the Ukraine war for 18th February 2023. He notes that time flies.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian Release Figures for Russian Losses
- Another huge day of losses for the Russians with 1,010 liquidated personnel, close to a record day, indicating a tough day on the battlefield
- Losses include 5 tanks, 13 APCs, 4 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems (likely S-300s), 9 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 pieces of special equipment
- Overnight, most of the counterattacks in south Bakhmut seem to have taken place at night, with Ukrainians having a competitive advantage in night vision
- A hospital in Kherson reported 36 liquidated and 18 wounded Russian soldiers, twice as many killed as wounded
In-depth Report on Russian Casualties
The Times has an in-depth report calculating that Russia has suffered 166,000 casualties (dead and injured) in the last 3 months on the frontline, losing 2,000 fighters for every 90 meters advanced - an incredibly high cost per meter.
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Verified Losses from Oryx
Oryx, the aggregator of visually confirmed losses, reported 43 losses for the Russians yesterday (including many tanks) compared to 14 for the Ukrainians - a 3:1 ratio. This is consistent with recent days where Russians are losing a lot of equipment.
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US Intelligence on Wagner Casualties
According to US intelligence reported by CNN, the Wagner mercenary group has suffered over 30,000 casualties, including roughly 9,000 fighters killed, with about 4,500 (half) of those deaths since mid-December - phenomenal losses for Wagner in just 2 months.
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Special Forces Attacks in South Bakhmut
There was a lot of talk on social media about special forces attacks in south Bakhmut, with footage of night exchanges in the area. Reports suggest:
- Special forces counter-offensive stormed a Wagner base, eliminating over 65 Russians, wounding a dozen and capturing 30 surviving mercenaries
- In a 3-hour battle, 7 Ukrainian special forces soldiers, supported by snipers, repelled an assault of over 40 soldiers who took 20+ casualties before retreating
- Another report states 35 mercenaries were eliminated in the battle before the enemy retreated
Wagner Mercenaries Complain about Supply Lines
Wagner mercenaries are complaining in videos that their supply lines have dried up and they are losing huge numbers of men. There seems to be tension between the regular Russian army and Wagner, with the army trying to phase out the mercenary group by not supplying them with artillery shells and ammunition. A video also shows a room full of around 20 dead Wagner mercenaries.
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Russia on Fire
Two more big blazes reported in Russia:
- A blaze at a warehouse in Krasnoyarsk storing timber and alcohol lasted 4 days before being put out
- A burning warehouse/chemical plant in Ufa, Krasnoyarsk, looks somewhat suspicious given the industrial setting
Kherson Hospital Hit
The Ukrainian hit on the Kherson hospital with Russian casualties could have come from a strike on a concentration of Russian soldiers on the left bank of the Dnipro. The operational command reports a place in Pivden was hit, with 18 occupants, 6 units of equipment (including an S-300 launcher), 2 Hyacinth B howitzers, and 3 vehicles destroyed. Five ammunition depots and observation posts in the occupied regions were also demilitarised.
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No Evidence of Major Russian Offensive
Despite fears of a huge Russian attack around the invasion anniversary, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said there is no evidence of a big massing of Russian forces like the assault on 24th February last year. He added that Kiev's Western allies are more resolved than ever to help Ukraine repel Russian forces, with the US now committed to seeing the conflict through.
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Military Aid
- German Chancellor Scholz said those who can send battle tanks to Ukraine should do so now, intensively campaigning to get allies moving - a 180-degree turn to become a cheerleader for European nations and allies to give tanks
- A bipartisan group of US lawmakers sent a letter to President Biden asking him to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, though problematic in terms of the full range of support required
- Polish PM stated Ukraine cannot win without combat aircraft, considering sending MiG-29s but F-16s are not on the table due to limited numbers
- France secretly supplied Ukraine with an unspecified number of its latest Akeron MP anti-tank missile systems, accelerating armament production for early deliveries of additional Caesar self-propelled howitzers, and preparing to supply 25 AMX-10P infantry fighting vehicles
Training of Ukrainian Soldiers
Extensive training of Ukrainian soldiers is ongoing:
- First batch of 635 completed 5-week training on Bradley IFVs in Germany, with successive Bradleys coming into service in Ukraine
- Second group of 710 being trained on Bradley and M109A6 Paladins
- Third group of 890 will begin training on Stryker IFVs next week as they arrive in Germany
- Hundreds of Ukrainian men training in army drills in northern England, some of over 10,000 sent to Britain in the last year
Potential False Flag Operations by Russia
There are worrying signs that Russia may be preparing for false flag "terrorist attacks":
- Moscow railway station shut after man reported with grenades and bombs
- Increased intelligence that Russia is preparing for a big staged terrorist attack to be blamed on ISIS extremists, with the narrative that the US/West are helping them undermine Russia as a way to control the public
- In Kaluga, the FSB reported liquidating two Central Asian "ISIS adherents" who allegedly planned to blow up fuel tanks at a chemical plant
Russia has a history of either badly handling genuine incidents or completely masterminding false flag operations themselves for their own benefit, as detailed in the book "Killer in the Kremlin" by John Sweeney.
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General Events
- Another group of instructors from Iran arrived in occupied Luhansk to train Russian military on Iranian drones. Russia has used over 660 Shahids out of 1,750 under contract.
- For the first time in almost 2 years, natural gas prices in Europe are below €50 per megawatt hour. Nobody in Russia is talking about the energy war anymore as they have been decisively defeated in this field. The EU and US have done an amazing job countering Putin's weaponization of energy, a key battlefront that Russia has lost.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and engaging with the content. He reminds them to like, subscribe and share the video, and notes that ways to support the channel are in the description. He will provide a frontline update later.
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