Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update - Bad News in Soledar Area?
"When Russian troops attack on that field, they use those bodies for cover like a shield, he continued. But it's not working. There are actual fields of dead bodies there."
05/01/2023
Hello Team!
Jonathan has put out a lot of content recently and has another Ukraine War Update Extra video coming out later today. There is a lot to cover in this frontline update.
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Reported Russian Losses
According to Ukraine, Russian losses in the last day include:
- 810 liquidated personnel (an uptick likely due to recent strikes)
- 3 tanks, 2 APCs, 12 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 aircraft, 1 helicopter, 2 drones, 14 vehicles/fuel tanks, 1 piece of special equipment
Tank and APC losses are lower compared to a few months ago, likely because Russia is using them less near the front lines now. Artillery system losses are up.
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HIMARS Strikes
A single HIMARS launcher firing continuously for 24 hours could theoretically destroy 173 targets. Ukraine has been hitting Russian positions far behind the front lines all over, including in Zaporizhzhia, Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Polohi and Veselivka. Over time, this is hammering Russian logistics and capability. A video shows a Russian base that was struck, with around 6 vehicles destroyed - an example of what is happening nightly.
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Russian Attacks
Russia launched at least 3 missiles, 13 airstrikes and over 60 MLRS attacks against Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure in Bakhmut, Kostiantynivka, Kurakhove, Nikopol and Kherson. Nikopol and Kherson get hit every night. Strikes on Kurakhove and Kostiantynivka, behind the front lines near Marinka and Bakhmut, signify Russia is doing tactical strikes on important Ukrainian logistical hubs.
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Russian Aircraft Relocated
According to British intelligence, Russia has relocated long-range aviation bombers to airfields in Russia's far east, further from Ukraine, likely in response to the strikes on Engels airbase in December that damaged several aircraft. While this may affect logistics and maintenance, the bombers still have a 5000 km range so can strike Ukraine. It may give Ukraine more early warning of missile launches.
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Shahid Drone Usage
Ukrainian military intelligence says Russia has used 660 Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 drones since September. Even with a 100% shootdown rate, the drones can still damage cities when shot down over them as the warheads explode on impact.
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Interview with Ukrainian Intelligence Chief
In an interview with ABC News, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence said:
- Attacks will come deeper inside Russia but Ukraine can only comment on responsibility after the war
- Crimea is Ukrainian territory so any weapon can be used there
- Russian soldiers are using piles of dead bodies of their own troops for cover like shields in some places
- Putin is terminally ill and will die before the war ends, leading to a transfer of power
- Ukraine is expecting Bradley armoured vehicles from the US soon which will significantly improve combat ability
- The "hottest" fighting will be in March and Ukraine is planning a major push in the spring to liberate territory and deal final defeats to Russia, with the goal of returning to 1991 borders
Northeast Front (Kupyansk, Svatove, Kreminna)
Not much detailed information from this front. A Russian attack was repelled near Stelmakhivka. Jonathan has adjusted the map to show more grey zones of unclear control around Ploshchanka, Chervonopopivka, and in the forested areas. Different sources show conflicting information on control of certain settlements. According to Ukraine, their strikes have degraded Russian logistics around Svatove to the point Russia now has to deliver supplies to the front directly from Luhansk city as they cannot establish warehouses closer.
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Bakhmut Area
The situation looks difficult for Ukraine north of Bakhmut:
- Russians have taken the railway station in Sil, a key area for supply routes into Bakhmut. Underground tunnels may be hindering them in the salt mine area.
- Attacks and advances towards Krasna Hora, Vesele, Bilohorivka, Soledar. The closer Russia gets to the T0513 highway, the harder it will be to supply Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut.
- East of Bakhmut, Russia pushed to Maksymenka St and may control part of the eastern industrial areas and suburbs.
- South, Russia has full control of Ivangrad and possibly Opytne again after Ukraine had previously pushed them out. Attacks on Klishchiivka were repelled but Russia may control land west of the canal by Ozarianivka.
The ISW thinks the Russian offensive may be culminating despite tactical gains, as they throw infantry in with less artillery support, which is unsustainable. Some Ukrainian reinforcements have been sent to Bakhmut from Zaporizhzhia and Sumy, which may delay the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia.
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Donetsk Front (Avdiivka, Marinka)
Very little news, just positional fighting. As one source put it, the Russians are "banging their heads against a concrete wall" here.
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Zaporizhzhia
Ukraine is focused on Zaporizhzhia after the Kherson withdrawal, striking rear Russian facilities and logistics. Sabotage groups are disabling bridges. Ukraine may attempt to cut off certain areas near Vasylivka and Polohy. The active counteroffensive phase is expected to begin this month but has been slowed by sending some brigades to Bakhmut. Recent strikes wounded over 260 Russian personnel and destroyed up to 10 pieces of equipment.
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Crimea
Russia is reinforcing and building up defenses in northern Crimea and Kherson, likely expecting an eventual Ukrainian attack on Crimea. Explosions and anti-aircraft fire were reported overnight in Dzhankoi, northern Crimea. A ground explosion is visible on video, indicating something was definitely hit, but exactly what is unclear.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan has a lot more news to share in his upcoming extra video. He encourages viewers to check out a recent discussion he had with a fellow Ukraine YouTuber who is a conservative Christian, showing they can come together despite different beliefs. He appreciates all the support and will give a big shout-out to supporters in the extra video.
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