Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you are supporting Russia, is this what you're supporting? I mean, really? Like, have a look at yourself."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - The Ukraine War Update for 10th March 2024. After a jovial start to the video for his Irish viewers, he moves on to the daily Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian equipment losses
🎦 00:31-02:12⏩
Jonathan goes through the daily figures for equipment losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that the figures are significant in a number of areas, including 900 personnel, 19 tanks, 38 artillery systems, 27 armoured personnel vehicles, 3 multiple launch rocket systems and 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems. He notes that the high number (69) for vehicles and fuel tanks lost could indicate that the Russians are using lighter vehicles on the front lines which are not captured in the other categories.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 02:12-07:47⏩
Jonathan uses Andrew Perpetua's analysis of visually confirmed Russian equipment losses from social media as his next source. He analyses what was destroyed in the Iskander missile strike that was the subject of his breaking news video the day before. Whilst the missile strike appears to have destroyed a command vehicle, a pickup truck, a car and potentially two Patriot launchers, Jonathan and Andrew agree that it is highly likely that more was damaged by the blast. Jonathan notes that other visually confirmed Russian losses include a T90M tank - the most valuable in the Russian arsenal - that has driven into a crater and been abandoned. Jonathan observes that there are numerous examples of both sides losing high value equipment this way. Other Russian equipment losses include a Buk launcher that has been positioned on top of a tailings spoil heap, making it very visible to the enemy.
Return to top⤴️
Footage of Ukrainian attacks on Russian equipment
🎦 07:47-10:20⏩
Jonathan notes that a lot of footage is coming out of Ukraine at the moment of Ukrainian attacks on Russian equipment, including the 58th Brigade destroying a Russian column in the south and the National Guard Omega unit repelling Russian attacks near Robotyne.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Lancet drone strike on Ukrainian landing craft
🎦 10:20-10:46⏩
Footage from the Russians shows a Lancet drone strike on a Ukrainian Project 1176L434 Svatova landing craft. The Russians claim it is seriously damaged and "the war is over" for the landing craft. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians will be annoyed about this and speculates that this could be one of the boats included in Andrew Perpetua's figures for the previous day.
Return to top⤴️
Swedish Archer howitzer counter battery fire
🎦 10:46-13:12⏩
Footage from a Swedish Archer howitzer shows it destroying a number of Russian D-20s in a counter battery fire operation in the Kreminna area. Jonathan takes the opportunity to highlight the key capabilities of the Swedish Archer system, noting that it is a "super good bit of kit" that can fire three rounds in 74 seconds, before moving to a new location. He suggests that this is another reason why Sweden joining NATO is such good news, as they bring a lot to the table militarily.
Return to top⤴️
Rumours of a Russian aircraft shot down over Mariupol
🎦 13:12-14:47⏩
Citing a tweet from Tim White, Jonathan reports rumours circulating in occupied Mariupol that a Russian aircraft may have been shot down, after loud explosions were heard, despite no air raid warning. He speculates that this could have been a case of friendly fire, or if true, the Russians may be trying to cover up the incident to avoid embarrassment by claiming that their air defences shot down a Ukrainian drone.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight drone and missile attacks
🎦 14:47-18:12⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight attacks, starting with a wave of 39 Shahed drones launched by Russia, of which 35 were shot down by Ukrainian air defences. He notes that the Russians seem to be concentrating on Odessa as the main target, and whilst the Ukrainian air defences are having considerable success intercepting these drones, even those that are intercepted will land on Ukrainian territory and cause problems. He notes that the four drones that got through appear to have hit targets in Odesa and non-occupied Donetsk.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets
🎦 18:12-22:10⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets, beginning with Tokmak. He observes that Tokmak does not feature so much in his reports now, although it used to be a regular target for HIMARS, but that there have been reports of explosions in Tokmak overnight. Citing Tim White again, he then reports on a drone strike on an oil depot in Kursk, noting with amusement that the Russian authorities claimed the depot was empty, which was rather "convenient". Moving on, he reports that Russian fuel storage north of Donetsk city was also hit, before moving on to the drone strike in Taganrog two nights previously. Although initial claims that a Russian A-50 had been destroyed in the attack appear to have been wide of the mark, analysis by Tatarigami of satellite imagery appears to show scorch marks on the runway where the A-50 was previously parked. The A-50 is absent from imagery on 8th and 9th March, and although Jonathan is sceptical about how much damage could have been caused to the aircraft repair facility, he does concede that the presence of a S-300/400 battery at the site suggests that Ukrainian drones are able to bypass Russian air defences.
Return to top⤴️
Russian torture of Ukrainian civilians
🎦 22:10-23:20⏩
Quoting a Guardian article, Jonathan reports that a UN expert (Alice Jill Edwards) has accused Russia of using torture as policy. This follows her assessment of evidence from 103,000 open war crimes and crimes against humanity cases in Ukraine, 90% (90,000+) of which are registered as torture cases. In typically forthright style, Jonathan questions those who continue to support Russia, in light of this evidence.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine to mobilise prisoners
🎦 23:20-28:11⏩
Jonathan reports that a bill will be registered in the Verkhovna Rada in the next week that would permit the mobilisation of prisoners and convicts into the Ukrainian army. He admits that he has been expecting this for a while as Ukraine are clearly desperate for troops. He analyses the pros and cons of the approach taken by Russia to mobilise prisoners, acknowledging that they were facing a difficult situation economically, in terms of being able to release 100,000 economically active citizens from their jobs in order to fight, and that mobilising prisoners removes this problem. He analyses the practical issues of introducing prisoners into established military units, concluding that separate detachments would probably be more practical. He also raises moral questions about the rights and wrongs of sending prisoners to fight and whether they would end up being used as cannon fodder. He concludes by saying that he is not surprised that Ukraine is considering this, given their need for troops.
Return to top⤴️
Monument to Wagner leaders
🎦 28:11-29:16⏩
Jonathan expresses his astonishment at the news that a monument to Prokhorin and Utkin, the Wagner leaders assassinated by the Russian government last year, will be erected in Russia. He points out the hypocrisy of this decision, given that Utkin was a neo-Nazi, when the Russians accuse the Ukrainians of being Nazis.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 29:16-29:16⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
Return to top⤴️
