Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"So a cannibal and a maniac who's dismembered his victims are now friends on the front line fighting gays and people who advocate for sex education in schools...well I'm Russia good stuff"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the show and mentions he had a late night watching UK local election results come in, joking that he could do a 4 hour analysis video about it. He is a bit tired due to his Multiple Sclerosis which makes it difficult for him to walk when he is tired.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian General Staff Report - Daily Losses
🎦 00:45-04:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily reported losses from the Ukrainian General Staff Report highlighting that figures should be treated with caution and that viewers can find details of how to interpret these figures in the video description. He notes that Russian personnel losses are high for the seventh day in a row, this time 1,270. Jonathan thinks that this could either be because the Russians are pushing hard or because there are large accumulations of troops being targeted by the Ukrainians, possibly with longer range missiles such as the Storm Shadow. He makes reference to the recent attack on a Russian base in Luhansk.
Return to top⤴️
France: 150,000 Russian soldiers killed since start of the war
🎦 04:35-07:33⏩
The French Foreign Minister has said that 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war. Jonathan reminds viewers that this figure is substantially higher than figures that have been independently verified by Mediazona and BBC Russia who have only been able to verify 51,000 Russian deaths. Jonathan explains how Mediazona and BBC Russia use obituaries and death certificates to verify deaths and that the 51,000 figure doesn't include the deaths of DPR/LPR personnel who are often used as the first wave of attack. He explains that many people believe that DPR/LPR personnel are seen as less valuable than conventional Russian troops.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Two Buk missile launchers destroyed
🎦 07:33-07:54⏩
Footage has emerged showing the destruction of two Russian Buk missile launchers, the fifth such attack in recent days.
Return to top⤴️
Crimea: Jankoy Airbase - Analysis of Satellite Imagery after Strike
🎦 07:54-10:26⏩
Jonathan reviews satellite imagery from Jankey airbase in Crimea 4 days after the Ukrainian strike on 30th April. The imagery analysis by Radio Free Europe shows that at least one Russian S300/400 TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) was destroyed in the attack although Jonathan explains that it is difficult to assess from the imagery the extent of damage to other equipment as damaged equipment will have been removed.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: "Turtle Tanks" used in attack West of Bakhmut
🎦 10:26-11:10⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainians are using "Turtle Tanks" in attacks on Russian positions West of Bakhmut. These tanks which have extra armour welded on have been used effectively by the Ukrainians in attacks in Krasnoyarsk. They are harder to take out with smaller drones and provide protection for other tanks.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Two Ukrainian RST Air Defence Systems destroyed in Kharkiv Oblast - Fact Check
🎦 11:10-12:59⏩
Claims circulating on social media that the Russians had destroyed two Ukrainian RST (medium range surface to air missile systems) have been debunked after investigation by War Vehicle Tracker, with help from German Air to Ukraine. Jonathan examines the images showing the chassis of the destroyed vehicles and it is clear that the chassis in the images do not belong to the RST system as they have the incorrect wheel configuration. The destroyed vehicles are probably fuel carriers.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Moscow - Large fire at Industrial Unit
🎦 12:59-13:31⏩
Jonathan reports on a large fire at an industrial unit in Moscow. The fire at the unnamed site covered an area of 2,500 square metres. There is no information as to the cause of the fire.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Overnight Strikes - Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Belgorod
🎦 13:31-14:56⏩
Jonathan provides an update on overnight strikes in Ukraine. There were reports of explosions in Jankoy, Crimea although there are no details. Ukrainian artillery has hit targets in Oleshky, Kherson and there are reports of a large explosion and fire in Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia. In Belgorod, a petrol station in Shebekino was on fire. It's not clear from the various sources what caused the fire although it is thought that it was as a result of Ukrainian shelling.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Long Range Drone attacks on Russian Railway Infrastructure
🎦 14:56-17:27⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainians appear to be using a new tactic of using long range drones to target Russian railway infrastructure. Overnight there were strikes on traction power substations near Ponyri and Svoboda in Kursk and Zamyeyvka and Glazunovka in Orel. The strikes have caused power outages on the main railway line between Moscow, Orel and Belgorod used by the Russians to transport military ammunition. The strikes are likely part of a new Ukrainian military strategy to damage the Russian economy and to degrade Russia's ability to launch a large-scale offensive.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: New Railway line Operational Linking Rostov-on-Don and Volnovakha
🎦 17:27-18:37⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians have opened the new railway line linking Rostov-on-Don with Volnovakha. The railway is an alternative to the Kerch bridge which is still not fully operational. Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol has confirmed that the first train travelled from Mariupol to Volnovakha.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Use of ATACMS and the need for speed
🎦 18:37-20:01⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of ATACMS long range missiles provided to Ukraine by the US. He notes speculation that electronic warfare may have affected the accuracy of some of the missiles recently used in an attack in Luhansk. Ivan Stupak has said that Ukraine has two months to cause as much damage to the Russians with ATACMS before the Russians find a way to adapt. Jonathan agrees with this analysis.
Return to top⤴️
UK: Announces £3bn Military Aid package to Ukraine and approves use of UK Missiles in Russian Territory
🎦 20:01-22:29⏩
Jonathan hails UK Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly's announcement that the UK will be providing a £3bn military aid package for Ukraine. This package is equivalent to the US providing $61bn, relative to the GDP of each country and Cleverly has said that this level of support will continue, making the UK's support very significant. Also significant is the UK's decision to permit Ukraine to use UK-supplied missiles in Russian territory. This has the potential to be a game changer, despite the limitations of the range of the Storm Shadow missiles.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Economist Interview - Sobering Assessment of the Situation
🎦 22:29-25:28⏩
Jonathan discusses an interview in the Economist with Ukraine's deputy head of military intelligence. The article is a sobering assessment of the situation. The official believes that Chaviv Yar will inevitably fall to the Russians, Ukraine is far from stabilising the front lines, a new Russian division is being generated in Sumy and Kharkiv and that meaningful peace talks won't take place until late 2025 at the earliest.
Return to top⤴️
NATO: "Deeply Concerned" about Russian Hybrid Warfare
🎦 25:28-28:28⏩
NATO has released a statement expressing deep concern about the threat to its security as a result of hybrid warfare from Russia. The statement lists sabotage, violence, cyber attacks, electronic interference, disinformation and hybrid operations affecting the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and the UK.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Internal Issues with Military Hierarchy and Possible Dismissal of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
🎦 28:28-31:08⏩
Jonathan reports that there appears to be infighting within the Russian Military Hierarchy after the arrest of the Deputy Defence Minister. Rumours are circulating on Telegram that the Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov is to be replaced by the Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: The Cannibal and the Serial Killer
🎦 31:08-32:18⏩
Jonathan finishes with a more lighthearted story about two Russian criminals who have been released from prison to fight on the front line in Ukraine. Dmitry Malyshev, a cannibal who filmed himself eating the heart of his victim and a serial killer have become best friends. Both are opposed to sex education in schools and gay rights.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 32:18-32:23⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
Return to top⤴️
