Ukraine War Update NEWS
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"The last 24 hours I've done a bit of thinking. And some of the news coming out, first of all, from Republican politicians in America, are looking like they aren't that interested in Ukraine aid and are going to try and leverage a load of border stuff again out of the attempted aid package. And this really annoys me because they just don't see Ukraine as important. If you saw it as important, you wouldn't be trying to do bargains over it."
Hello Team!
Jonathan will be recording several videos today including a livestream with Mark Olliner from Canada, a second news video and a frontline update if time allows before he needs to travel to watch his son play rugby. Apologies in advance if the frontline update doesn't get done.
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Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian General Staff figures, Russia suffered the following losses over the past day (caveats apply - see video description):
- 930 personnel (heavy but under 1000)
- 4 tanks
- 11 APVs
- 8 artillery systems (lower than usual, possibly due to weather)
- 1 drone
- 1 cruise missile
- 22 vehicles/fuel tanks
- 2 pieces of special equipment
Destroyed Russian Equipment
- Andrew Perpetua did not compile a list of visually confirmed Russian equipment losses over the past 24 hours. He did a livestream explaining his data sheet criteria.
- Another Russian Buk-M2 air defense system was reportedly destroyed near Vlodomirivka. This would make 5 Buks destroyed by Ukraine in the past week according to Ukraine Battle Map. This will help Ukraine's aerial assets and combined arms maneuvers going forward.
- The Chinese "golf carts" (Desert Cross 3000 vehicles) supplied to Russia are already being destroyed by Ukrainian drone operators according to Robert Maggiar. The pilots' verdict is they are "shit of shit" as expected.
Russian Drone Usage
According to a post translated by Dmitry from War Translated, a Russian military reporter says Russian drone operators prioritize targets that will bring "spectacular footage" for videos rather than actual combat assistance. Russian drone handlers are reluctant to give away drones that will spoil their statistics. This contrasts with Ukrainians who will spend many drones to get their targets, even if no visual footage results. The Ukrainians focus on doing the job rather than making TikTok videos. There are also rumors of issues with Russia purchasing drone consumables and parts from China, with someone possibly monopolizing the market.
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Alleged Poisoning of Russian Troops
Tim White posted a translation he is skeptical of until confirmed. It alleges that 20 Russian troops were poisoned by two female compatriots in Crimea who brought poisoned alcohol and food to thank the troops at a military checkpoint in Simferopol. 24 soldiers allegedly died and 11 were hospitalized with arsenic and strychnine found in the bottles. The criminals could not be found. If true, this would be good news for Ukrainian partisan efforts in Crimea.
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Partisan Activity
- Ukrainian resistance forces destroyed several Russian soldiers and an enemy refueling station in Melitopol on December 1st according to Ukrainian intelligence. Other military equipment was also damaged. There seems to be growing partisan activity in a number of places like Melitopol and Crimea.
- A fire occurred at the production facility of the Ozerni mining and processing plant in Brachia, Russia. The relatively new plant has only been in operation since summer 2022. Jonathan presumes this will help Ukraine in some way.
Overnight Strikes
- Russia launched 12 Shahed drones overnight, 10 were shot down (decent interception rate).
- A launched Kh-59 missile did not reach its target.
- Kamelnitsky Oblast was targeted with explosions heard and air defense active. The Stara Konstantinovka air base is located there and could have been a target.
- Explosions also reported at Krasnodar inside Russia and at Melitopol Airfield 70km from the front, possibly targeted by HIMARS/ATACMS/drones.
Jonathan's Mood
Jonathan says his mood is generally down at the moment after some thinking over the past 24 hours:
- News that Republican politicians in America don't seem very interested in Ukraine aid and are trying to leverage other issues like border security to get what they want. This annoys Jonathan because it shows they don't see Ukraine as truly important, otherwise they wouldn't be bargaining over the aid package.
- Ukraine needs more "boots on the ground" to match Russian mobilization but is facing issues with funding aid from the US and other countries. We need to mobilize our own war economies to maximize production of equipment to supply Ukraine.
- The Russians seem to be regaining the initiative in some places and the Ukrainians are under pressure along the frontline. It's a period where Jonathan's "head dips a little bit" as he thinks we really need to sort this out and aren't doing a good enough job of it.
- Considering how many countries are supporting Ukraine compared to Russia as a pariah state, it's frustrating that Russia's massive stockpiles allow it to draw out the conflict far longer than it should despite the imbalance.
Ongoing Issues in Russia
- Airplane problems continue in Russia according to Anton Gerashchenko, with 5 Russian airliners breaking down in flight over 2 days due to lack of spare parts and maintenance from sanctions. Issues included cockpit air conditioning, landing gear pressure, autopilot/flap failures and engine failures on Aeroflot, Iraero and Yamal airlines planes. It's unclear if Russia will ground flights or continue to take risks.
- In an AP interview, Zelensky said prisoner exchanges continue, often right on the battlefield between local commanders without announcement, contradicting reports that centralized exchanges aren't happening currently.
- The UK Defense Intelligence update says Russia is likely paying soldiers' wives increased cash payments to refrain from staging protests. Authorities are particularly sensitive to protests from citizens mobilized in Sept 2022 who have now been at the front for over a year. A prominent online group for soldiers' wives published a manifesto against indefinite mobilization on Nov 27 and was then targeted with a fake warning label, likely from pro-Kremlin actors. More videos are emerging of frontline units refusing orders and relatives, especially wives and mothers, making protest videos - though often focused on issues like compensation, communication and status of dead/missing rather than the war itself.
Mobilization Issues in Ukraine
While facing an existential threat, Ukraine also needs to look after those fighting in its defense:
- The topic of additional mobilization is extremely urgent as most soldiers who volunteered in Feb 2022 are still serving 18 months later without a break.
- Wives of Ukrainian servicemen in Kyiv are demanding demobilization after 18 months of service.
- There needs to be clarity on contract lengths and entitlements to breaks for those serving to avoid burning out the very people defending Ukraine's existence.
Wrap Up
Jonathan will provide more details on his current concerns, especially regarding US military aid and the geopolitical situation, in his next video. Please like, subscribe and share.
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