Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Drones are becoming so prevalent in this conflict... the Ukrainians have an advantage with first person view drones... a three to six month advantage that the Ukrainians have with this technology."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for May 12, 2023. He notes there is a lot of activity on the front lines but it is not yet a full counter-offensive, rather shaping operations. His mapping efforts will take longer each day once the counter-offensive is in full swing.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Shaping operations and counter-attacks around Bakhmut
- Ukrainian forces have begun shaping operations ahead of the anticipated counter-offensive, with an uptick in activity in different places
- Counter-attacks are occurring around Bakhmut, likely as a diversion to fix Russian units there and set conditions for a major offensive elsewhere
- Russians have fundamentally culminated in Bakhmut and Ukraine could take back significant territory there quickly with relatively small amounts of resources
- Russian telegram channels are panicking about potential Ukrainian strikes toward Belgorod
Russian losses and Ukrainian strikes
- General Staff figures show 750 Russian personnel liquidated, a meaningful uptick. Also losses of tanks, APCs, artillery systems, MLRS, anti-aircraft systems, drones, vehicles.
- Footage shown of a Russian MLRS taken out by a Ukrainian drone dropping IEDs. Drones are becoming very prevalent.
- Ukraine has systematically destroyed many Russian air defence assets which Russia has struggled to replace. This could play a large role in the forthcoming counter-offensive.
- Two explosions/fires reported in Russia - a warehouse fire in Norilsk and a large tire yard fire near Moscow.
Military aid to Ukraine
- UK has provided Ukraine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles which have 250-300km range. These are meant to strike high value targets deep in enemy rear areas. Transferring these is a strategic shift in the balance of power.
- US has accused South Africa of supplying arms to Russia in a covert naval operation in December.
- US-supplied former Iranian 120mm mortars seen in Ukrainian service.
- 31 Abrams tanks pledged by US to arrive in Ukraine in early autumn. Training to begin in Germany in coming weeks.
- 100 loitering munitions delivered to Ukraine by Escadrone Group. Ukraine has asymmetric advantage in drones.
Geopolitics and sanctions
- EU has called on Georgia not to let Russian planes land in its territory
- Russian tycoon suing UK government for return of £38 million superyacht seized under sanctions. Argues he is not on sanctions list. Reflects challenges of asset seizures.
Wrap up
Jonathan reiterates that he has a very lax approach to comment moderation and censorship on his channels. He very rarely deletes comments unless they are clear spam or insults without substance. Many comments appear to be deleted by YouTube's algorithm which he has no control over. He aims to foster respectful discussion. Thanks for watching, please like, subscribe and share. Most viewers are amazing but some are a bit unhinged in their support for Russia.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No parts of the transcript were unclear to me. Let me know if you would like me to modify or expand the summary in any way.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information about the video (title, date, part if applicable) from the YouTube title
Watch for key topics/themes and summarize each in order, with a subtitle for each
Note any significant quotes from Jonathan to potentially include
Review summary to ensure all key points are captured and that British English spelling/grammar is used
Add XML tags around each section
