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Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230919a): Pt 1 - Bumper Overnight & Other News

News Tuesday, 19th September 2023, 11:10
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
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"The Russians are indiscriminate in their targeting of civilian architecture around that region particularly."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides the latest Russian loss figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, with the usual caveats. Notable losses include 520 troops, 5 tanks, 17 APVs, 35 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 15 drones, 17 cruise missiles, 30 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment. Oryx visually confirmed 24 Russian and 5 Ukrainian equipment losses, a 5:1 ratio in Ukraine's favour. The Russian losses include tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, and multiple anti-aircraft systems.

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Russian Troop Losses

Documents show the Russian Ministry of Labour requested 230,000 certificates for family members of deceased combat veterans, suggesting the Ukrainian figures of 273,460 liquidated Russian personnel may not be far off. The procurement tender also includes over 750,000 combat veteran certificates for various ministries.

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Equipment Losses

Footage from the Novoheirovka area shows a destroyed Russian T-90M tank, three T-72B3 tanks, a BMP-3 IFV, and two BMP-2s. Ukrainian military intelligence claims they sunk or heavily damaged the Russian Navy ship Sergey Kotov, which has been targeted multiple times. If true, the ship will likely be out of action for some time.

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Civilian Casualties

Despite the focus on major strikes, Russian artillery continues to hit civilian settlements along the Dnipro River. In Kherson, a trolleybus was hit, killing a senior police sergeant and seriously injuring two civilians aged 33 and 57. Jonathan notes the Russians are indiscriminate in targeting civilian infrastructure in the region.

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Strikes and Fires

  • An apartment block under construction in Moscow caught fire, with 8 workers safely escaping.
  • Russia launched 30 drones overnight, with Ukraine shooting down 27. The 3 that got through caused fires in Lviv.
  • A multi-storey building in Kryvyi Rih was hit, damaging apartment blocks, a school, and kindergarten. No injuries reported.
  • Sloviansk was hit by four S-300 surface-to-air missiles used in ground attack mode, which are notoriously inaccurate for this purpose.
  • Satellite imagery shows a high-value target in Olenivka, Crimea was likely destroyed recently.
  • Russia is still using guided glide bombs like the FAB-500 effectively, which the Ukrainians need to combat going forward.


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Analysis and Opinions

  • Jonathan criticises a Russian Army recruitment ad where soldiers discuss buying apartments in Kyiv and Odesa once conquered, calling it evil and noting Western armies would never do this.
  • An article in the Kyiv Independent analyses Russian defensive tactics, suggesting they are not using the defence-in-depth strategy effectively. Possible reasons include doctrinal disagreements between generals, lack of skilled troops for organised retreats, and rigidly following textbook instructions.
  • Ukrainian official Danilov claims a rebellion is brewing in Russia that will lead to the country's fragmentation, possibly influenced by Kadyrov's reported illness. Jonathan notes this could be psyops but is still interesting.


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Wrap Up

Jonathan mentions an interesting segment from the Ukraine Latest podcast about fuel prices skyrocketing in Russia, causing discontent among farmers who may protest. He sees this as a sign of growing discord within Russia that could lead to future political upheaval, though the internal security services work to suppress any rebellion. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share, and promises a second video soon.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

No major queries, the transcript was clear and comprehensive. Some minor uncertainties around exact spellings of place names and individuals.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Extract key information from the video transcript, including: Russian losses and equipment destroyed Ukrainian losses Strikes and attacks by both sides Analysis and insights from Jonathan Organize the information into topics with clear subheadings Summarize each topic concisely, keeping Jonathan's opinions and analysis Use British English spellings and grammar Include an introduction and wrap-up section Select a key quote that captures the essence of the video Review and refine the summary for clarity and completeness

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ATP-AI-Bot

Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos