Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230813a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Please remember, of course, this refers to human lives. I don't want to desensitize myself and normalize the loss of life. This is war and it's horrific."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video with his usual greeting to his audience, "Hello team and welcome to another ATP Geopolitics video with myself Jonathan MSP."
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
The Ukrainian General Staff reported the following Russian losses for the previous day (with the usual caveats):
- 560 killed in action (KIA) - about average for the last couple of months
- 3 tanks
- 11 armoured personnel vehicles - fairly heavy losses
- 19 artillery systems - a problematic day for the Russians, consistent attrition
- 5 anti-aircraft warfare systems - a big number, could be high or low value
Jonathan emphasizes that these numbers refer to human lives lost in a horrific war.
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BBC and MediaZona Update on Confirmed Russian Deaths
The BBC and MediaZona have been surveilling social media platforms in Russia to get a sense of confirmed Russian soldier deaths based on obituaries that explicitly mention dying in the war in Ukraine. Their latest update shows:
- Previously around 27,000 confirmed deaths
- Now up to 30,003 confirmed deaths
This is an absolute minimum benchmark and does not likely include DPR, LPR or Wagner forces. Actual deaths will be higher, but it's unclear if they are as high as the 253,000 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Russian Su-30 Crash in Kaliningrad Region
A Russian Su-30 crashed in the Kaliningrad region during what may have been an air display or exercise flight. Both pilots were lost. This is a needless loss for the Russian air force outside of combat operations.
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Shootout Between Russian Mobilised Soldiers and Kadyrovites in Uzhhorod, Donetsk
A shootout occurred in Uzhhorod, Donetsk region between drunk Kadyrovites (Chechen fighters) and Russian soldiers and civilians. 5 were killed and 7 wounded as a result. Lack of cohesion and infighting among Russian forces is beneficial for Ukraine.
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Ukrainian FPV Drones vs Russian Tanks
Footage shows several Ukrainian first-person view drones (costing around $400 each) being used to attack a Russian "Terminator" tank support vehicle and T-80BV main battle tank. The Terminator, a much vaunted modern vehicle, was hit multiple times, including after being towed by a support vehicle which was also subsequently hit.
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Russian Sources Complain About Ukrainian Artillery Effectiveness
Russian sources continue to complain about the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery and lack of adequate Russian counter-battery fire in virtually every frontline report. This is attributed to Ukraine's consistent targeting of Russian artillery systems and counter-battery radar positions, making it difficult for Russia to operate normally.
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Ukrainian Counter-Battery Fire Near Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia
The Ukrainian General Staff explicitly mentioned Ukrainian forces entrenching near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after liberating territory and conducting counter-battery fire. This "bite and hold" tactic of settling in and immediately conducting counter-battery fire after an advance appears to be a pattern due to the minefields preventing non-stop momentum.
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Strikes on Russian Positions in Occupied Kherson Oblast
- A Russian military base in Radensk, occupied Kherson Oblast was significantly hit with ongoing fires.
- Oleshky, south of the Antonivka bridge, was heavily targeted by Ukrainian artillery.
- Kozachi Laheri was also hammered by Ukrainian artillery and multiple launch rocket fire.
Use of JDAM Bombs by Ukraine
Footage shows Ukrainian forces using JDAM guided bombs to hit tall buildings, possibly sniper positions, in the southwestern entrance of Bakhmut. The large explosions can significantly damage these buildings that are difficult to take out with artillery alone. Jonathan notes increased use of JDAMs by Ukraine in different frontline areas recently.
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Drone Over Moscow and Air Defenses Activated
A drone was seen over Moscow, an uncommon occurrence that may cause Russians to consider if the war is coming to them. Another drone was reportedly taken out over Belgorod as well. Ukraine appears to be probing Russian territory with various drones, fixing air defense systems in place while operating in occupied Ukrainian territories.
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Kerch Bridge Attack
The Kerch bridge connecting occupied Crimea to Russia was attacked, with black smoke seen rising from the bridge. Analysis of the footage suggests:
- At least 8 potential explosion sites
- Black smoke likely from actual hits, white smoke possibly from Russian smoke generators used as a countermeasure
- Potential use of repurposed S-200 missiles by Ukraine
- One explosion with white smoke going upwards may have been a hit
The bridge is likely compromised to some degree. This may have been a probing attack to reveal air defense positions for a potential secondary strike. In response, Russia quickly tightened laws to prevent citizens from sharing footage that could geolocate air defense systems. One Russian vacationer was detained for posting videos of the bridge attack and made to publicly apologize.
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Zelensky Sacks Military Recruitment Heads Over Corruption
Ukrainian President Zelensky has sacked the heads of all regional military recruitment centers in an attempt to root out corruption following scandals involving bribery. Stamping out corruption is crucial for Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO and the EU, and to receive IMF funding. While the corruption revelations are concerning, the dismissals demonstrate Ukraine is taking action to address the issue.
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Dam Break and Flooding in Uzurisk, Russia
A dam broke in Uzurisk, Russia for unknown reasons, causing massive flooding in the surrounding area. While the relevance to Ukraine is unclear, the disaster response may divert Russian resources and attention away from the war effort, such as sending conscripts to assist in relief work instead of preparing for combat.
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Possible Ukrainian Reserve Deployments Near Robotyne
Pro-Russian sources claim Ukraine's 46th Air Mobile Brigade and elements of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade are fighting near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia, possibly indicating Ukraine is committing more reserves to the frontline than previously thought. However, it's unclear if these represent significant reserve deployments or just specialized elements like FPV drone operators or snipers supporting the main frontline forces.
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Growing Panic and Desertions Among Russian Forces
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, panic is growing among Russian troops and desertions are increasing, particularly in occupied Kherson Oblast where patrols are searching houses for hiding deserters. Among newly arrived Russian personnel, there are significant increases in deserters and those abusing alcohol and narcotics, with many leaving their posts to hide in abandoned buildings. While this should be taken with a grain of salt, other sources seem to corroborate a high desertion rate, and there has been an uptick in desertion court cases within Russia.
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Russian Missile Attack During School Supply Distribution in Kryvyi Rih
Volunteers were distributing school supplies to first graders in Kryvyi Rih when a Russian missile attack caused an explosion in the city, terrifying the children. The sad scene underscores how the horrors of war are impacting innocent children who should be experiencing the joy of a new school year, but are instead living on edge with the constant threat of missiles.
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Russian Malware Targeting Starlink Satellite Internet
Ukraine has warned that Russian spy agencies are developing custom malware to target the Starlink satellite internet system used by the Ukrainian military in order to spy on troop movements. As more Ukrainian units rely on Starlink, Russia is likely redoubling efforts to hack and disrupt the network. This emerging threat will be important to watch.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan signs off, saying "Right, so that's the beginning of part one. Please like, subscribe and share. Thank you so much for watching and I'll drop in with part two shortly to bits."
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