Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you're starting to get a bit of slippage in that narrative, or you're starting to get cracks in the police, not just the propagandists, but the people watching that, then the information landscape starts changing."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologises for not producing as many videos over the last couple of days due to seeing friends he hasn't seen in years. He promises to do his third extra video today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian Release Figures for Russian Losses
The latest Ukrainian figures show 500 liquidated Russian personnel, 7 tanks, 10 APCs, 15 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1-2 helicopters (Mi-24 and Ka-52 claims), 9 drones, 13 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 5 pieces of special equipment. Jonathan notes the uptick in tanks and APCs lost, the importance of taking out Russian artillery, and the significance of losses of special equipment like radar installations. Overall, it was a positive day for the Ukrainians.
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Hits and Losses
- Ukraine's 110th mechanized brigade shot down a Mi-24 and Ka-52 attack helicopter. Russia has lost around a third of their operable Ka-52 fleet, a significant loss.
- In a video, pro-Russian military blogger Igor Girkin claims HIMARS have destroyed entire headquarters of Russian brigades, suggesting the attack on Makivka with up to 600 casualties was not the bloodiest.
- On Russian state TV, a panelist admitted that many more Russians have been killed than Ukrainians in the war, contradicting the prevailing Russian narrative and propaganda.
Other News
- 100 Ukrainian POWs (80 men, 20 women) were returned home from Russian captivity, including defenders from Mariupol, Azovstal and Kostomel. Another 24 children from the Kherson region were also returned.
- A drone hit Belgorod Airport in Russia, falling near the fence and exploding. Border airports remain closed to civilian aircraft.
- According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia launched 39 airstrikes and 7 missiles (4 S-300s) against Kramatorsk and Chasiv Yar.
- The Shiveluch volcano erupted in Kamchatka, Russia, with an ash cloud height of 20km.
Intelligence Leaks
The recent US intelligence leaks have caused anger and betrayal within the Pentagon. The documents, from February, suggest US doubts about Ukraine's ability to make significant gains in their planned spring offensive due to challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment. However, Ukrainian officials argue the situation has changed since then. The leaks also reveal Poland donated three S-300 air defence platforms to Ukraine, and the US modified AIM-7 Sparrow missiles for use by Soviet-made weapons. While concerning, a Ukrainian official said they have already altered battle plans in response. Analysis of the leaked photos suggests they originated in the US based on visible products and manuals on the leaker's desk. The Pentagon is likely to tighten security and restrict access to sensitive information in response.
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Military Aid and Training
- Denmark is providing 19 Caesar howitzers (arriving in May) and 100 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine this summer. This is in addition to another 100 Leopard 1s already pledged, totalling around 200.
- Bulgaria may transfer MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine if Western partners supply them with more modern aircraft in return.
- The US has not yet used its Lend-Lease program for Ukraine, holding it in reserve in case of growing reluctance to provide aid through other means.
- Ukrainian forces are undergoing increased training on small unit tactics, combined arms manoeuvres, and new equipment like US and UK-supplied MRAPs and vehicles. This is crucial for the planned counteroffensive.
Geopolitics and Diplomacy
- Ukrainian Defence Minister Reznikov invited foreign F-16 pilots to join the Ukrainian army through the Foreign Legion. He also suggested foreign specialists with expertise in servicing Western-supplied equipment come to work in Ukraine.
- According to the intelligence leaks, Egypt planned to secretly manufacture and supply up to 40,000 rockets for Russia.
- Russia introduced new rules for those dodging conscription, restricting their ability to drive, take loans or buy real estate.
- The Ukrainian Prime Minister visited Canada to sign bilateral agreements, meet with officials, and attend IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington D.C. He expressed the need for ammunition, armoured vehicles and war risk insurance for foreign investors.
- Hungary's Foreign Minister arrived in Moscow for energy discussions, emphasizing the need for uninterrupted oil, gas and nuclear fuel supplies.
- Poland's Prime Minister met with US Vice President Kamala Harris, likely discussing military and other assistance to Ukraine.
Wrap up
Jonathan apologises for the longer than expected video and thanks viewers for their support.
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