Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Howitzers, Drone Tech, Russian Revanchism, & Rail Hits
Table of Contents 📖
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"Uber long-range, low, slow and cheap drones are the strategic air power threat of the 21st century. We are in a world of air force in a box."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as a Ukraine News Update Extra providing additional insights and understanding about the war in Ukraine, as well as some information about recent events in Iran. He thanks viewers for their support of the channel.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Logistics Targeting by Ukraine
Ukraine used HIMARS/GMLRS to disrupt rail tracks between Russian-occupied Melitopol and Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, temporarily putting the supply line out of service. Jonathan notes the advantage Ukraine has in being able to continually knock out rail supply routes to southern regions and Crimea using the long range of HIMARS. He mentions recent hits on Ilovaisk, a major rail hub feeding occupied territories from Russia.
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Russian Use of Decoys
The Ukrainian military says Russia is using inflatable decoy tanks in Zaporizhzhia. While the images shared don't provide definitive proof, Jonathan says it wouldn't surprise him and that deception is an integral part of military operations.
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Drone Attacks in Iran
Jonathan discusses reports of attacks on Iranian targets the previous night, with conflicting claims about whether they originated from inside Iran or were Israeli drone strikes. Airstrikes reportedly targeted Iranian military bases and a militia convoy crossing from Iraq into Syria. The dust has not yet settled on what occurred and who was behind it.
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Drone Technology Advancements
Jonathan shares a thread from Trent Telenko about advancements in drone technology:
- Small drones can be delivered by aircraft, with the US testing drops of 100 small drone swarms using cooperative AI swarming behaviors
- "Mothership" drones like the Skyways Blue Water can deliver 25 pounds of payload (e.g. smaller drones) up to 500 miles
- China and Turkey are also developing long-range compound helicopter drones capable of deploying loitering munitions
- Uber long-range, low, slow and cheap drones are becoming a major strategic threat that even advanced jet fighters will struggle to counter cost-effectively
- It will take "uber cheap air-to-air drone swarms to stop uber cheap drone swarms"
Russian Revanchism and Opposition to Putin
Petr Pavel, the former NATO Military Committee chair who was just elected president of Czechia, warns that Russian revanchism (the policy of regaining lost territory) runs deeper than Putin. He cautions the West against welcoming Russians fleeing mobilization, as they may still support nationalist policies and punishing Ukraine even if they don't want to fight themselves. Pavel notes the strong Russian "fifth column" already present in countries like Czechia and says even opposition figures like Navalny are Russian nationalists, not true liberals. He admits NATO underestimated Putin's willingness to use brute force and didn't take his rhetoric about the "Russian world" seriously enough.
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Artillery Lessons from Ukraine
Jonathan reviews a thread about how Ukraine is innovating with towed M777 howitzers to keep them relevant against drone threats:
- M777 crews initially had to use frequent survivability moves to avoid Russian counter-battery fire, enabled by the howitzers' mobility
- After Ukraine's counteroffensives forced Russia to rely more on Lancet loitering munitions instead of artillery, M777 crews began using camouflage netting reinforced with metal fencing to protect against drone attacks, sacrificing some mobility
- Proper ammo storage and fusing procedures are critical to avoid catastrophic accidents
- The US Army already has doctrine for using camo netting against drones that can be updated based on Ukraine's hard-won lessons
Armored Vehicle Protection
Photos are shown of a Turkish-made Ukrainian Kirpi armored car after battle. The vehicle is heavily armored to protect the crew against threats like mines, but Jonathan questions how the tires can be made to withstand gunfire and wonders about the future potential for "metal tires" that provide protection while maintaining performance.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, encouraging them to like, subscribe and share the video. He expresses appreciation for the brilliant community that has developed around the channel. He also plugs his books on philosophy and fiction for both adults and children aged 9-15, noting that one has become a set text in English schools across the UK.
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