Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Putin, the master strategist, completely relied on that he will win in Ukraine and the entire world will go along with it. It also proves that revanchist fascism, as Ruski Mir, is that it never does any good to the people. Russia could have thrived if it had relinquished all imperial ambition."
Hello Team!
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian figures for Russian losses, noting 610 liquidated personnel which is lower than recent weeks. He believes this indicates the Russian offensive has culminated. 7 APCs and artillery systems lost shows a consistent degradation of Russian artillery over the last few weeks which Jonathan has been speculating is a concerted Ukrainian effort to target these ahead of a likely counter-offensive.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Assassination of Russian Military Blogger
Pro-Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was killed in an explosion at a St. Petersburg cafe. Footage shows the moment he was given a statuette by a woman, which apparently contained the bomb. Russia has blamed a Ukrainian woman, but Jonathan believes this was more likely a Russian inside job, possibly a message to Prigozhin as Tatarsky was a Wagner mouthpiece. He notes the Kremlin may use this to stoke anti-Ukraine sentiment for its military recruitment drive, drawing parallels to Putin's rise to power in 1999 following suspicious bombings.
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Hits on Ukraine
Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region was attacked by Russia with S-300 missiles and Hurricane MLRS, killing 6 civilians and injuring 9, damaging residential buildings, a kindergarten, hospital and administrative building. Jonathan notes Ukraine tends to publicize attacks on civilian targets but is very secretive about hits on military targets for operational security reasons.
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Military Aid to Ukraine
German arms maker Rheinmetall is setting up a military maintenance and logistics hub in Romania near the Ukrainian border to service Western vehicles and equipment like Leopard 2 tanks and Marder IFVs. Jonathan sees this as very significant in providing a closer support base. Another Ukrainian tank crew has completed training on British Challenger 2 tanks. Poland has delivered some of its MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. Jonathan recommends Perun's latest video analyzing the air war, noting the MiGs will be very useful but Ukraine will eventually need Western aircraft to launch standoff weapons to hit Russian targets in depth.
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Russian Military Aid
In contrast, Russia is having to pull old equipment like T-12 anti-tank guns from storage, with doubts they will even function properly. China providing aid would be a "game changer" but this has not materialized so far.
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Situation in Marinka
A Russian military commissar stated they expended 1480 shells and 6 loitering munitions to capture a fur farm near Marinka, but could not hold it due to inferior counter-battery capabilities allowing Ukrainian artillery to drive them out. Jonathan notes this shows the situation varies in different areas of the front - Marinka is a "school of infantry" for Russia where they have struggled to make progress for over a year.
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Geopolitics
- Finland's pro-NATO Prime Minister Sanna Marin was narrowly defeated by a right-wing coalition. Jonathan worries about the rise of right-wing populism in Europe.
- Turkish President Erdogan wants to "teach the US a lesson" in upcoming elections after the US ambassador met with an opposition candidate. Jonathan expects Erdogan to win as he has eroded Turkish democracy.
- Hungary's deputy foreign minister visited Ukraine in a sign of warming relations and possible easing of Hungary's pro-Russian stance under pressure from the EU/US.
- The Secretary General of the Council of Europe arrived in Kyiv to discuss holding Russia accountable for war crimes.
- Germany's economy minister made an unannounced visit focused on Ukraine's energy sector, which is crucial to the country's functioning.
- Jonathan pushes back on criticism of Germany's pre-war dependence on Russian gas, arguing Britain or other European countries would likely have made the same decisions in their position. Conversely, he notes Russia ironically made itself overly dependent on European energy exports while neglecting Asian markets, limiting its economic options after invading Ukraine.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He notes the video ended up longer than intended and mentions a forthcoming frontline update.
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