Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230825a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is not counterinsurgency. This is Kursk."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, mentioning he was at a Tippling Philosophers meetup the night before where he did more "tippling than philosophizing". He also notes the Ukrainian general staff have changed the wording of "liquidated personnel" to just "personnel" in their daily reports.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian general staff reported the following Russian losses for the previous day:
- 470 personnel
- 3 tanks
- 10 armoured personnel vehicles
- 28 artillery systems (a significant loss)
- 1 multiple launch rocket system
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 12 drones
- 3 cruise missiles
- 17 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 1 piece of special equipment
Hits and Losses
Andrew Perpetua, a mapper Jonathan relies on, has been tracking equipment losses on both sides using video and photographic evidence. The numbers have increased, particularly in the south around Robotna, with both sides using and losing more mechanized equipment compared to the infantry-focused battle of Bakhmut. According to Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov, of the 222 Russian aircraft damaged in recent strikes on Russian airfields, 2 can be repaired while 2 cannot. The Russians may only have 27 of these aircraft left operational.
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Crimea Raid
A Ukrainian spokesperson claimed that during a special forces raid on a beach resort in northwestern Crimea, Ukrainian servicemen:
- Damaged 4 Russian boats
- Killed at least 30 Russian servicemen
- Suffered no losses themselves
The Russian MOD disputed this, claiming 15-20 Ukrainian soldiers were killed after being pinned down by a security guard until a rapid response force arrived. The claims from both sides are almost exact opposites.
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Strikes
There was significant overnight activity:
- Russian sources claim 42 drones were destroyed over Crimea (9 by air defences, 33 by electronic warfare). Several explosions were heard.
- Saky Air Base, which hosts Tu-22M3 bombers, was reportedly attacked by drones.
- An S-200 missile was reportedly shot down over the Kaluga region. Russians claim no damage was done.
- Explosions and air defence activity reported in Kaluga, Kursk, Tula regions. All Moscow airports were closed.
- Russia attacked Odesa region with a small number of cruise missiles and Shahed drones, all of which were reportedly destroyed. The low number of missiles used raises questions about Russian tactics and stockpiles.
- Significant explosions occurred in Tokmak, which is now only 20km from the front line.
- Russia has started launching missiles from small ships in the Sea of Azov towards Odesa, possibly seeking new tactics.
Other News
- The Russian Volunteer Corps, an all-Russian unit fighting for Ukraine, has offered Wagner mercenaries to join them in marching on Moscow together following the reported assassinations of Prigozhin and Utkin by Putin.
- On Ukrainian Independence Day, Ukrainian hackers accessed cameras with sound in many Russian cities to conduct "explanatory work". The Ukrainian national anthem was also played through loudspeakers in Luhansk.
- The US has advised Ukraine that the surge of equipment provided, over $43 billion, is enough for the current offensive but is unlikely to be repeated at the same level in 2024. Ukrainian commanders say time hasn't run out and they are on the cusp of a breakthrough.
- In interactions with the Americans, General Valery Zaluzhnyi responded "This is not counterinsurgency. This is Kursk.", highlighting the differing nature of this conflict compared to recent US military experience. Deep divisions over strategy linger between Ukraine and its Western partners.
Wrap up
Jonathan notes there is significant activity on the front lines, particularly around Robotna, with claims another town may have fallen. He will cover this in the next video. He thanks viewers for their support.
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