Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Massive Drone Strike into Russia

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:01⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics "Ukraine War News Update", the first part for the 28th of May 2025. He notes that he's been away for a few days, so there's a lot of information to cover, including carry-over news and significant overnight events. He mentions the ongoing "crazy times" with the war, highlighting both Russia's actions against Ukraine and Ukraine's counter-actions into Russian airspace, with last night being particularly busy for Ukrainian munitions. Due to the volume, a large military aid video and a geopolitics video are also planned for the day.

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Russian Personnel and Equipment Losses (Ukrainian General Staff Figures)

🎦 01:01-02:03⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, advising viewers to find the full caveat-supplied data in the description. Key figures include:

• 1,050 personnel lost: Above the 1,000 mark but at the lower end.
• 4 tanks and 2 troop transport AFVs: Low numbers.
• 18 artillery systems: Below the daily average for the first time in a long period.
• 52 vehicles and fuel tanks: One of the lowest numbers seen in this category.
• 65 drones: Very low for a 24-hour period.

Jonathan notes a "real downtick" in destroyed equipment and personnel losses, correlating this with possible poor weather conditions in Ukraine over the past few days.

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US Officials' Estimates of Russian Personnel Losses

🎦 02:03-03:02⏩
According to War Translated, Keith Kellogg, US envoy to Ukraine, has "effectively confirmed" that Russia has lost nearly 1 million people in the war. A Trump representative reportedly stated total losses have reached 1.2 million, exceeding US losses in World War II. Jonathan stresses the significance of these numbers, suggesting they indicate a high-level awareness within the American administration of the immense Russian casualties, which somewhat contradicts Donald Trump's "both sides-ism" rhetoric.

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Washington Post Report on Russian Military Decline and Trump's Stance

🎦 03:02-03:35⏩
The Washington Post reports that Russia's military power in Ukraine is declining, citing 1,500 daily casualties and a near-exhaustion of Soviet tank reserves. Jonathan highlights the "real frustration" that despite Moscow's weakening position, Trump appears to be easing pressure on Putin. He notes that this rhetoric, including not wanting the G7 to pressure the Russian oil industry, will be discussed further in his geopolitics video.

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Russian Adaptations in Modern Warfare: Tanks as APCs

03:35-05:59⏩

Return to top⤴️Jonathan discusses the "Mad Max" appearance of modern Russian military vehicles, particularly an adapted tank seemingly repurposed as an Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC). He observes that the turret has been removed, replaced with massive rubber tyres and thick rubber/chain slats to protect against drone explosions, creating a troop compartment inside. He reiterates his view that tanks are becoming "somewhat obsolete" in this particular war due to drone dominance. The primary need for Russian forces, he explains, is to safely transport troops to the contact line, making these adapted vehicles potentially "exceptionally effective" for "getting people from A to B" in an FPV drone-dominated environment.

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Ukrainian Drone Innovation: AI Mothership and Fibre Optic Drones

🎦 05:59-08:24⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone innovation:

• AI Mothership Drones: Forbes claims Ukraine has used reusable "Gogol M" carrier drones for the first time. These fixed-wing drones deliver two FPV drones to a target up to 300 kilometres away and then return, making them "breaking new ground." The FPVs reportedly carry out attacks guided by AI, implying they don't require a repeater.
• Fibre Optic Drones: Jonathan shows footage of a fibre optic drone flying 42 kilometres to hit a tank inside a hangar, noting this distance as a potential record. He also shows another fibre optic drone inspecting and hitting hidden Russian logistics vehicles inside hangars. He notes that Ukrainians are "ramping up usage" of these drones, which are effectively finding and destroying hidden equipment.

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Russian and Ukrainian Fibre Optic Drone Ambush Tactics

🎦 08:24-09:17⏩
Jonathan explains that Russians are now setting up ambushes on roadsides using fibre optic drones to target Ukrainian vehicles, a tactic that has posed a "real challenge." However, he highlights a Ukrainian counter-tactic: the National Police Brigade, Kizhak, practices "combing the roads with drones and then destroying them with drones." This involves FPV drones acquiring and destroying dormant Russian fibre optic drones before Ukrainian vehicles proceed, which Jonathan describes as an "interesting Russian tactic" and a "counter tactic" from Ukraine.

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Saki Airfield in Crimea Hit by FPV Drone

🎦 09:17-10:50⏩
According to Cyber Baroshno, Saki Airfield in Crimea was hit by an FPV drone between 1st and 3rd May, striking the control centre of an Orion drone and possibly the drone itself. Jonathan finds this "interesting" because Saki is typically out of FPV drone range. He speculates it could have been achieved using an unmanned sea vehicle as a repeater, or one of the new "mothership" drones. He notes that the Orion is a significant Russian drone, and there are rumours an Orion factory in Russia was hit last night during Ukrainian drone strikes, linking this hit to a broader effort against Russian drone capabilities.

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Jonathan's Context on Video Sources and Content

🎦 10:50-12:03⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that while he may not show every video, all sources are linked in the description below, particularly for "hits and losses and strikes." He explains that sometimes there are too many links for the description, especially from the "other section" of news. He then transitions to discuss footage/reports of Ukrainian aviation striking inside Russia, calling it a heading "you never would have expected to have seen five years ago," and questioning how it's possible given Russia's air force and anti-air batteries.

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Russian Complaints on Ukrainian Technological Superiority

🎦 12:03-12:12⏩
Jonathan reports that Russians are complaining that Ukrainians have made a "quantum leap" in battlefield technology, including electronic warfare, AI, drones, and artillery, to which Russia "has no response" and "don't have the flexibility to react." Jonathan highlights this as a significant admission of Ukrainian superiority in these areas.

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Jonathan's Humour: Muting Tabs

🎦 12:17-12:24⏩
Jonathan interjects a humorous personal note, telling viewers, "I know how to mute tabs. You don't need to tell me about it. I love having a battle against the music. It's just my thing." This light-hearted comment provides a moment of levity and connection with his audience.

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Jonathan's Insight: The Confusing Information Space

🎦 12:24-13:01⏩
Jonathan reflects on the "confusing information space" surrounding the war, where viewers encounter competing narratives. He notes that one hears claims of Ukraine having an "asymmetrical advantage" and being "leaps and bounds above where Russia are in terms of X, Y and Z," while simultaneously hearing that Russians are "really doing well." He points out the frustration of different sides claiming different things, and even the same side sometimes making contradictory claims. He concludes that at least one claim, though, is that Ukrainians possess "some kind of technological advantage."

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Ukrainian MiG-29 Strikes with Guided Glide Bombs in Belgorod Region

🎦 13:02-13:59⏩
Jonathan showcases footage of a "really significant looking hit" by a Ukrainian MiG-29 using guided glide bombs to precision strike Russian positions, including FSB officers, in the Belgorod region near Kharkiv. He notes this marks a continuation of Ukrainian aviation striking inside Russia with guided glide bombs, a tactic previously employed extensively by Russia. He observes that Ukrainians appear to be using these more frequently, with some footage being "really quite impressive," showing a building "absolutely shellacked" and reduced to a "non-building."

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Fires in Russia: Shopping Centre and Wildfires

🎦 13:59-15:29⏩
Jonathan mentions claims from Prune60 and Tim White of "Russia on fire." A fire broke out at the Pioneer Shopping Centre in Korolev, Moscow region. While he doesn't know if it's war-related, he notes a spate of shopping mall fires, suggesting potential sabotage, carelessness, or even insurance fraud due to Russia's troubled economy. Additionally, wildfires are causing havoc, particularly in Buryatia. Jonathan points out that conscripted soldiers, who would normally fight wildfires, are now occupied at the front, making it difficult for Russia to manage the fire season, especially in regions like Buryatia which have been heavily mobilised.

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Train Sabotage in Russia's Belgorod Region

🎦 15:29-16:01⏩
Jonathan reports an act of sabotage in Russia's Belgorod region, where a train was blown up by a bomb planted under the track in the Novoskolsky district. Local officials confirmed that rail traffic has been suspended. Jonathan views this as a "useful bit of sabotage."

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Russian Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes on Ukraine

🎦 16:01-17:53⏩
Jonathan details the Russian strikes on Ukraine from the previous night, describing it as comparably "quieter" but still significant:

• 88 drones launched: 71 were taken out (34 shot down, 37 suppressed by EW or lost), leaving 17 drones that got through. Jonathan notes this is a high percentage for the number of drones launched.
• 6 missiles got through: Five were MLK-N23 ballistic missiles (Korean version), and one KH-59-69 missile. Jonathan assumes military targets have been "hammered" over the last week due to successive nights of attacks, though last night was less severe. He recalls a night where Starokostiantyniv airbase was hit by six missiles at once, likely causing significant damage to infrastructure, though he hopes F-16s are protected.

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Attrition of Ukrainian Air Defence Systems

🎦 17:53-18:22⏩
Jonathan expresses concern that Ukrainian air defence systems have been "attrited over the last, well, probably over the last six months." He believes Russia views air defence systems as "target number one." He also mentions rumours that Patriot systems have been "degraded," having been hit by Russian missiles or drones.

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Russian Drones Equipped with Shrapnel in Kyiv Attacks

🎦 18:22-19:05⏩
Jonathan reports that drones which attacked Kyiv four nights prior (on 24th May) were "equipped with metal objects," making them "more deadly" by increasing damage radius and potential civilian casualties. He describes the effect as "shrapnel fragmentation flying out everywhere." He calls these "war crimes on wings," particularly when they target "densely populated civilian areas," deeming it "pretty horrific." He also notes Europe's hope for China to mediate, but criticises China for supplying components for these drones to Russia.

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Russian Drone Production Capacity vs. Ukrainian Swarm Drone Attack

🎦 19:05-20:22⏩
Jonathan discusses drone production and usage figures:

• Russian Production Goal: Euromaidan Press reports Russia has orders to produce 500 drones daily.
• Current Russian Capacity: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated Russia's current capacity is only 300-350 drones a day. Jonathan considers this a "phenomenal number" for one-way attack drones like the Shaheds, posing a "real problem" for Ukraine if Russia reaches its 500-a-day goal.
• Ukrainian Swarm Attack: Zelensky also recounted a recent "successful operation" where the Ukrainian armed forces used 400 small drones simultaneously, destroying 40 pieces of Russian military hardware. Jonathan finds this "pretty impressive," imagining a swarm of FPV drones working in unison.

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The Human Cost: Russian Missile Strike Kills Three Siblings in Zhytomyr

🎦 20:22-21:48⏩
Jonathan shares a heartbreaking account of a Russian attack in Zhytomyr, where a missile hit the Martinuk family home, killing three siblings: Stanislav, Roman (17, about to graduate), and Tamara (8 and 12, respectively, forever remaining those ages). The parents are in hospital, with doctors fighting for the mother's life. Jonathan stresses the importance of remembering the "human cost" of these "horrors inflicted upon Ukraine," calling Russia's actions "war crime after war crime." He reflects on the "hopes and dreams" invested in the children, "snuffed out in one fell swoop," characterising it as "horrific" and something Russia does "on a nightly basis."

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Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Russian Military-Industrial Sites (General)

🎦 21:48-23:10⏩
Jonathan highlights that while Ukraine fights back with drones, they are "trying damned hard to hit military and military industrial sites," unlike Russia, which targets apartment buildings and civilian areas. He mentions that drones attacked the Kronstadt drone development plant in Dubna, Moscow region, overnight. He also notes that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) reportedly stated that almost 300 drones were shot down, indicating a "massive night of drone activity" by Ukraine. Other reports claim 115 Ukrainian drones struck targets deep in Russia, including the Kronstadt drone factory and the Elma Technopark, key centres for Russian drone and microelectronics production.

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Conflicting Reports on Ukrainian Drone Effectiveness in Russia

🎦 23:10-24:32⏩
Jonathan points out the confusion surrounding the exact number and success of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia. While there are "lots of claims" of drones being thrown into Russia, there's "very little battle damage assessment" or footage of drones "actually doing anything." This makes it hard to be sure of their success. He notes that last night's attack, however, yielded "quite a lot of drone footage" in the daytime, showing some drones finding their targets, suggesting at least "some success." He also highlights the varying reported numbers from Russian sources: 300 drones shot down (Max25), 115 reaching targets (another report), and the Kremlin claiming 296 destroyed overnight.

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Impact of Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Civilian Population

🎦 24:32-26:46⏩
Jonathan notes that Moscow has been heavily targeted for several nights in a row by Ukrainian drones, which is "having an effect on the population there." He shares imagery of Russians "running to the shelters" and mentions that areas like Yelets have been targeted three nights consecutively. This consistent drone activity leads to electricity and internet outages, and people in Russia are now "really feeling the war" as Ukraine sends "massive swarms of drones." Jonathan concludes that Russians are "getting a taste of their own medicine" as air raids and complaints become commonplace.

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Specific Ukrainian Drone Hits on Russian Military-Industrial Facilities (Elma, Kronstadt, Micron, Dubna)

🎦 26:46-31:27⏩
Jonathan provides further details on specific Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia:

• Elma Technology Park in Zelenograd and Kronstadt drone manufacturing plant in Dubna were targeted in a "massive overnight attack on Moscow Oblast."
• Micron Microelectronics Plant in Zelenograd: Despite the Moscow mayor claiming only minor damage from debris, Jonathan asserts it was a "direct hit" based on video evidence. He notes no alarms sounded before the drone strike.
• Dubna Machine Building Plant: This plant, which produces missiles and drones, was also seen burning after being struck by Ukrainian drones. Jonathan expresses frustration that individual facilities are being hit by "the odd drone" rather than being "absolutely hammered with a huge number of drones," suggesting a larger number of drones for a single target would be more effective.
• Kronstadt Drone Development Enterprise in Dubna: This facility, a manufacturer of Russian Orion drones, was also hit. Jonathan recalls earlier discussion of an Orion drone and its service facility being hit at Saki Airfield in Crimea.
• Electric Train and Excavator Park in Moscow: Tim White reports an electric train was damaged overnight, along with a nearby excavator park. Jonathan notes the video of this incident is "silenced and blurred," making him suspicious that "more important things" may have been hit than reported.

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Russian Missile Upgrades and Patriot Interception Challenges

🎦 31:27-32:22⏩
The Kyiv Independent reports that Russia's upgraded ballistic missiles are now "harder to intercept by Patriots." Ukraine's Air Force spokesman, Yurii Ihnat, stated this "complicates the interception but doesn't make it impossible" and expressed hope that "partners are already working to improve the system's capabilities." Jonathan acknowledges this as "excellent news" for improvement but highlights the "real challenge" for Ukraine as Russians improve their tactics, routes, and drone electronics to be more electronic warfare resistant, with China "certainly helping in that context."

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Zelensky on Patriot Usage and Future Air Defence Localisation

🎦 32:22-35:07⏩
Jonathan quotes Ukrainian President Zelensky on air defence:

• Patriot Usage: Ukraine is using Patriot missiles "carefully" against the "toughest threats" like ballistic and cruise missiles.
• Rocket Supply: Ukraine has the necessary rockets, and partners are assisting.
• Future Air Defence: Zelensky mentioned being "close to decisions on licensing other air defence systems" but couldn't share details. Jonathan speculates these could be anti-ballistic missile systems like SAMP/T, or perhaps systems like NASAMS or IRIS-T, which Ukraine might localise production of.

Jonathan discusses the strategic importance of various air defence systems, noting the rumoured scarcity of SAMP/T interceptors. He also mentions theories that Russian Shahed drones are flying at 2km heights to avoid low-tech defences, or flying low and then ascending for a dive to make them harder to shoot down, making diverse air defence systems crucial.

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Fire at Russian Ammunition Depot in Amur Region (NASA Imagery)

🎦 35:07-35:54⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant fire at the 304th Ammunition Depot in Russia's Amur region, detected by NASA satellite imagery. He notes this was reported by MAKS25 and hasn't been widely covered elsewhere. While the depot was reportedly closed in 2011, the "significant FIRMS data" (fire data) suggests it may still contain munitions. Jonathan implies this could be an example of successful Ukrainian strikes that are only emerging later.

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Ukrainian Drone Strike on Substation in Urozovo, Belgorod Region

🎦 35:54-36:29⏩
Jonathan reports that a substation in Urozovo, Belgorod region, was hit and "completely destroyed by a drone," which will impact Russia in that area. He highlights that Urozovo is a railway hub just south of Valuyki (where a Russian locomotive was recently attacked). He suggests this strike could be "more significant than you might think," potentially aimed at derailing a future Russian offensive moving southwards.

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Ukrainian Drone Destroys Russian Military Train in Zaporizhia

🎦 36:29-37:47⏩
Ukraine's Intel unit claims to have destroyed one of Russia's military trains in the Zaporizhia region. A drone unit hit a fuel-laden train on the Verkhnyi Tokmak-Molochansk-Federivka section, destroying "at least three fuel tanks" while the train was moving. Jonathan expresses surprise that such incidents haven't happened more often, as he would have expected "these kind of strikes all day, every day for the last three years." He speculates that previously it might have been "practically impossible" for Ukrainians to achieve due to distance or drone capabilities.

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Massive Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia During Putin's Kursk Visit (Overall Numbers)

🎦 37:47-39:09⏩
Jonathan reports that during President Putin's visit to Kursk approximately a week prior, Russia's Ministry of Defence reported that "1,177 drones were destroyed over Russia" between May 20th and 22nd. This suggests an even greater number of drones were sent into Russia during that period, indicating a "purple patch" for Ukrainian strikes. Jonathan observes that both sides have launched "phenomenal amounts of drones" but there's "relatively little battle damage assessment" from either side. He speculates that Russia might be successfully hitting serious military targets in Ukraine without reporting it, and questions if the same applies to Ukrainian strikes on Russia, or if Russian air defences are just highly effective.

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Zelensky's Figures on Russian and Ukrainian Mobilisation Rates

🎦 39:09-41:11⏩
Jonathan reports on President Zelensky's latest figures regarding mobilisation:

• Russian Mobilisation: Zelensky claims Russia is mobilising between 40,000 and 45,000 people per month, a figure much higher than previously thought (30,000-40,000). Jonathan states this allows Russia to replace their losses at a rate greater than one-for-one, enabling them to accumulate troops and reconstitute units.
• Ukrainian Recruitment: Zelensky also stated that Ukraine is able to recruit between 25,000 and 27,000 people per month.

Jonathan analyses these figures, noting that while Russia is mobilising more, the key is whether Ukraine is attriting Russian troops at a beneficial ratio (e.g., higher than 1.7:1), which he assumes they are, to ensure they can eventually gain more troops in the long run relative to Russia.

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Zelensky's Claim: US Rhetoric Influences Russian Mobilisation

🎦 41:11-41:43⏩
Jonathan cites President Zelensky's claim, reported by NV news outlet, that "when the US sends signals that it wants to do something positive with Russia, then Russia ramps up its mobilization." This suggests a direct correlation between American diplomatic rhetoric and Russia's military posture.

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Reports on Russian Offensive Preparations for Summer (Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro)

🎦 41:43-44:15⏩
Jonathan presents conflicting reports on Russia's potential summer offensive:

• Sumy Region: Zelensky, according to NOL reports, warns Russia is amassing over 50,000 troops near Sumy, signalling a new offensive. Jonathan finds this plausible given current attacks in the region.
• Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv: The Washington Post anticipates a major summer offensive in Donetsk, with smaller attacks along the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions. It claims 125,000 Russian troops are currently stationed there. Jonathan finds 125,000 troops across two regions "massive."
• Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Sumy: MAX25, citing German tabloid De Bild, reports Putin's "big offensive" will begin in June, aiming to advance into Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Kharkiv, and Sumy.

Jonathan discusses Russian adaptation of drone warfare, noting they've "learned to wage drone warfare" by "copying the tactics of the opposing side" and mass-producing new drones and electronic warfare equipment. They are reportedly using these to hunt Ukrainian logistics and disable dozens of targets daily. Jonathan finds it "pretty plausible" that Russia would target Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to claim it as their own.

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Sky News Report: Russia's Kursk Army near Kharkiv (Limited Push)

🎦 44:15-44:33⏩
Jonathan mentions a Sky News report stating that "what's left of Russia's Kursk army is staring down Kharkiv." Analysts suggest Moscow's "depleted units" near Kharkiv may be preparing for a "limited summer push."

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POW Exchange and Trump's Premature Announcement

🎦 44:33-46:12⏩
Jonathan briefly touches on a recent prisoner of war (POW) exchange, described as "a thousand for a thousand, broadly speaking," and highlights "wonderful footage" circulating online of these reunions. He notes, however, a "pretty controversial" incident where Donald Trump prematurely announced the exchange on social media before it even began, which Kyiv was thankful "didn't cause a late derailment of the agreement" as it breached operational security. Jonathan describes the "beautiful footage" of wives waiting at exchange points, sometimes for days, to be reunited with their husbands, but also poignantly acknowledges the "so many wives" who leave without a happy ending, their husbands still in captivity. He concludes by leaving viewers with this "positive" news.

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Wrap up

🎦 46:12-46:32⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, acknowledging its length (45 minutes) due to catching up on three days of missed news. He thanks viewers for "indulging" him and promises to record again later today. He bids farewell, saying "Take care and I'll speak to you soon."

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