Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is forming 12 organizations to militarize children in occupied parts of Zaporizhia. This is a form of brainwashing where you make entire cohorts of people, you Russianize them, you Russify them."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan kicks off the Ukraine War News Update, expressing frustration over a previous recording with no audio. Despite the gloomy UK summer weather, he perseveres with his second attempt to deliver the news.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: High Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-01:24⏩
Jonathan details the latest figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, noting a "fairly bad day" for the Russians:
- Personnel losses: 1230 (High)
- Tanks: 11 (Higher than average)
- Armored personnel vehicles: 26 (Higher than average)
- Artillery systems: 45 (Over double the average)
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 2 (Depending on type)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 79 (Very high)
- Special equipment: 11 (Likewise high)
Jonathan observes that these figures suggest continued Russian pressure on the Ukrainians, indicating a depletion of equipment and suboptimal personnel. Conversely, Ukrainians face challenges defending their lines and acknowledge the pressing need for mobilization.
Return to top⤴️
Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Analysis
🎦 01:24-03:13⏩
Analyzing Andrew Perpetua's loss list, Jonathan argues that while initial figures might suggest parity, a closer examination reveals a different story. He highlights:
- Discounting surveillance and communications equipment, as well as Lancet drone strikes on less significant targets, paints a more positive picture for the Ukrainians.
- Combat asset losses show a ratio of almost 4:1 in favor of Ukraine (8 Ukrainian losses compared to approximately 30 Russian).
- The apparent parity stems from the unusual absence of Russian trucks and civilian vehicles on the list, which typically inflate their losses.
- Despite these observations, Ukraine has experienced setbacks, including losing an air defense system, sustaining damage to a Strela 10 system, and suffering losses from Lancet drone strikes on various targets, including an abandoned M1 Abrams tank.
Jonathan concludes that Lancets are heavily utilized by the Russians and expresses uncertainty about the effectiveness of their electronic warfare and surveillance equipment.
Return to top⤴️
Assessment of Western Equipment Losses
🎦 03:13-04:35⏩
Jonathan examines Western equipment losses, revealing:
- The majority of losses comprise armored personnel carriers (APCs).
- Two M1 Abrams tanks were abandoned after falling into a trench, likely due to restricted visibility. Jonathan expresses concern over this, hoping for their recovery but acknowledging the potential for drone strikes on abandoned equipment.
- The Russians have also lost a Panzer S1 tank, confirmed through video footage, which Jonathan deems a significant loss inflicted by Ukrainian Gimlas (guided multiple launch rockets, potentially M270 or HIMARS).
Jonathan distinguishes between HIMARS and M270 systems:
- HIMARS: Wheeled, faster deployment, 6 missile pods.
- M270: Tracked, slower but advantageous on specific terrains, 12 missile pods.
Russian Equipment Losses: Tanks and Artillery
🎦 04:35-05:16⏩
Jonathan showcases footage of destroyed Russian equipment:
- Five D-20 artillery pieces, highlighting their vulnerability as "track garden sheds" with four found abandoned and subsequently targeted.
- Several BMP-1, BMP-2, and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, alongside APCs, indicating substantial losses for the Russians.
He reiterates the significance of these losses for the Russian military.
Return to top⤴️
Anecdotal Reports and Social Media Updates on Russian Losses
🎦 05:16-10:17⏩
- The exiled Russian news source, Medusa, reports the heavy losses suffered by Russia's 1st Slavyansk Brigade, referring to it as the "Bermuda Triangle," with senior officers exploiting the situation for financial gain.
- The death of Major Timur Kuzhev, an artillery unit officer from the 85th Motorized Rifle Division, is linked to a Ukrainian shell hitting the area during an interview.
- This incident resembles previous occurrences where Russian propagandists and TV crews were lost due to Ukrainian strikes.
- An ME-28 helicopter crash in the Kaluga region, north of Kharkiv, possibly due to engine failure, raises questions about Ukrainian air defenses. Jonathan notes the significance of experienced pilots and crew members, often outweighing the loss of the helicopter itself.
- The 79th Brigade repels a major Russian assault involving 57 AFVs, including 11 tanks, 12 motorcycles, and 200 infantrymen. Ukrainian drone operators played a crucial role in neutralizing the attack, targeting fleeing infantry.
- Yakub Yanovsky, affiliated with Oryx, reports over 1500 visually confirmed T-72 tank losses by Russia, highlighting the scale of their losses, exceeding five times the entire UK tank inventory.
- Spartan News on Twitter estimates Russian losses exceeding 15,000 artillery pieces, showcasing the staggering numbers involved.
Richard Vareka's Tank Loss Analysis and Trends
🎦 10:17-12:21⏩
Jonathan analyzes tank loss trends using data from Richard Vareka of Warspotting:
- An increase in T-80 and T-90 tank losses suggests ongoing production, potentially indicating the resurrection of a T-80 factory.
- The declining proportion of other tank variant losses aligns with the depletion of Russian stockpiles.
- A notable uptick in T-62 losses, despite being older models, implies their deployment out of necessity due to the exhaustion of better alternatives.
- This aligns with recent sightings of refurbished T-62s transported by train, suggesting their reintroduction into active service.
Jonathan deduces that while Russia continues producing T-90s and refurbished T-62s, the overall trend points to a less than favorable situation for them.
Return to top⤴️
Footage of Russian Losses and the Effectiveness of Ukrainian Strikes
🎦 12:21-13:42⏩
- Video footage shows the destruction of a Russian Panzer S1 short-range air defense system, categorized as high-value equipment, by Ukrainian Gimlas.
- Another video depicts the catastrophic explosion of a Buk air defense system, obliterated by tungsten fragments from a HIMARS-launched M30A1 GMLRS rocket.
Jonathan underscores the significance of these visuals, interpreting the surge in HIMARS footage as a potential indicator of increased ordnance supply, reflecting positively on Ukraine's capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Artillery Successes and the Reamergence of Stugna Videos
🎦 13:42-16:25⏩
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the Tevaz artillery crew, successfully targeted a command post in Belgorod and two personnel concentrations in Shchuri, highlighting their precision strikes.
- Jonathan observes an increase in Stugna anti-tank guided missile system videos. He attributes their previous decline to the capture of Izyum, a suspected manufacturing hub, leading to a depletion of missile stocks.
- He speculates a resurgence in Stugna production, potentially in the Lviv area, aligning with the increase in related videos.
- This trend, alongside the surge in HIMARS footage, is interpreted as favorable for Ukraine, signifying an improvement in their military capabilities.
- Jonathan acknowledges the pro-Ukrainian nature of his analysis, attributing it to the abundance of data highlighting their successes and the lack of comparably negative news, apart from territorial losses.
Analysis of a Modified Russian T-80 Tank and the Psychological Impact of Drones
🎦 16:25-20:55⏩
- Footage emerges of a heavily modified Russian T-80 tank featuring makeshift armor and resembling a "Mad Max" vehicle.
- Jonathan questions the efficacy of such modifications, speculating whether it reflects resourcefulness or desperation.
- He deems the tank a glorified APC, doubting the functionality of its turret and barrel.
- This observation, combined with the use of a high-value T-80 for such purposes, suggests logistical challenges and a potential inability to repair their more advanced tanks.
- Jonathan raises concerns about the psychological impact of drones on both sides, anticipating widespread PTSD triggered by the buzzing sound.
- Anecdotes surface of Russian soldiers' fear, compelling them to remain in dugouts until nightfall to avoid drone strikes.
- A disturbing video reportedly shows a Russian soldier, driven to despair by the psychological toll of drone warfare, taking his own life upon encountering an FPV drone.
Jonathan condemns the horrific nature of war, emphasizing the profound psychological trauma inflicted on those involved.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Drone Strikes and the Romanian Border Incident
🎦 20:55-22:37⏩
- Ukraine reports intercepting 25 out of 38 Russian drones, with three crossing into Romanian airspace before crashing.
- Jonathan acknowledges that while some of the remaining drones might have been neutralized by electronic warfare, the interception rate remains subpar compared to recent successes.
- He questions the intent behind the Romanian border incident, downplaying any malicious intent and attributing it to technical malfunction or operational errors. Jonathan doubts any deliberate provocation of NATO by Russia.
- He also mentions significant drone activity in Kursk, with reports of Ukrainian drones triggering Russian air defenses.
Analysis of Russian Soldiers' Reaction to Ammunition Depot Explosion
🎦 22:37-24:15⏩
- A video shared by Anton Gerashchenko shows Russian soldiers seemingly celebrating the explosion of their own ammunition cache in occupied eastern Ukraine.
- Jonathan expresses bewilderment over their reaction, questioning their state of mind (potentially intoxicated) and struggling to interpret their behavior.
- He acknowledges the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strike while remaining puzzled by the unusual response from the Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian Success in the Black Sea and the Removal of the Russian Fleet
🎦 24:15-25:33⏩
- Jonathan highlights the underappreciated success of Ukraine in neutralizing the Russian Black Sea fleet.
- He emphasizes their removal from Sevastopol and the Sea of Azov, relocating to Novorossiysk, a Georgian port, and potentially to open waters due to the damage inflicted upon the Slavyansk train ferry.
- The spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, Serhiy Bratchuk, attributes the Russian withdrawal to the ferry incident, viewing it as a demonstration of Ukrainian power.
Jonathan lauds this achievement as a testament to Ukraine's military prowess, forcing the "second greatest armed force in the world" to retreat.
Return to top⤴️
Discussion on Metrics of Success and Territorial Concessions
🎦 25:33-29:19⏩
- Jonathan delves into the metrics of success, drawing upon his previous "pyramid" analogy:
- While the ultimate objective is the complete liberation of Ukrainian territory within the 1991 borders, achieving this requires fulfilling other crucial objectives.
- These objectives, such as attrition of Russian military assets, economic sanctions, and political influence, possess their own metrics of success, independent of territorial gains.
- Jonathan argues that even losing territory, such as in the challenging battles for Chasiv Yar and potentially Prokrosk, might be strategically acceptable if it inflicts heavy losses on the Russians.
- He envisions a scenario where Ukraine leverages its successes in other areas, such as air superiority achieved through F-16s and the depletion of Russian resources, to eventually reclaim lost territory.
- Jonathan acknowledges Maria Popova's argument against overemphasizing territorial concessions, emphasizing the importance of Ukrainian sovereignty.
- He contrasts this with public opinion polls indicating a willingness to consider territorial concessions for peace, particularly concerning the complex situations in Donbas and Crimea.
- Jonathan emphasizes the distinction between military strategy and public sentiment regarding territorial concessions.
- Return to top
- ⤴️
Potential Russian Culmination Point and Evidence of Organ Harvesting
🎦 29:19-32:06⏩
- Ukrainian National Guard commander, Pivnenko, suggests Russia's offensive capabilities might culminate within a month, forcing them into a defensive stance.
- Jonathan analyzes this prediction alongside the mounting evidence of Russian struggles, including equipment losses, reliance on older weaponry, and declining morale.
- He highlights the significance of this potential culmination point, particularly as it aligns with the predicted peak of Russian aggression in July and August.
- Disturbing reports emerge of Russia harvesting organs from Ukrainian prisoners of war.
- During prisoner exchanges, where bodies are also returned, Ukrainian authorities have observed a pattern of missing internal organs.
- Jonathan cites the appeal made by Ukrainian officials and families to the Turkish government for intervention.
- This practice is condemned as further evidence of Russia's disregard for human rights and international law.
Russian Attempts to Suppress Ukrainian Identity and the Importance of Language
🎦 32:06-34:46⏩
- Reports surface of a Ukrainian prisoner of war being shot in the knee for answering in Ukrainian, highlighting Russia's attempts to suppress Ukrainian identity.
- Other prisoners recount being threatened and forced to speak Russian at gunpoint, emphasizing the ongoing cultural and linguistic oppression.
- Jonathan draws upon his experience reading accounts from Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, former prisoners of war, to corroborate these reports.
- He emphasizes the significance of the Ukrainian language as a cornerstone of their national identity, arguing that Russia aims to erase their culture through linguistic suppression.
- This strategy, evident in occupied territories like Zaporizhzhia, aims to assimilate Ukrainians into Russian society.
- Russia has established 12 youth organizations in occupied Zaporizhzhia to indoctrinate Ukrainian children, a tactic described as brainwashing and cultural genocide.
- This long-term strategy aims to alter the demographics and sway future referendums in Russia's favor.
- Jonathan condemns these actions as a blatant attempt to steal land and rewrite history.
Crimean Bridge Defenses and the Russian Economy
🎦 34:46-35:20⏩
- Russia has deployed 30 barges to protect the Crimean bridge, a strategic asset for them.
- However, Ukrainian officials remain determined to destroy the bridge, viewing it as a legitimate military target.
- The Russian economy shows signs of strain, with experts acknowledging the exhaustion of growth factors and a decline across various sectors, including oil, food, and manufacturing.
- This economic downturn adds further pressure on Russia's ability to sustain its war effort.
Wrap Up
🎦 35:20-35:25⏩
Jonathan concludes the update by expressing gratitude for his viewers' support and bidding them farewell.
Return to top⤴️
