Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"Freedom and democracy are currently under threat around the globe... This self-doubt is arising at a time when our world is at history's turning point."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:49⏩

Jonathan kicks off the third update of the day with a warm "Hello team!" He expresses gratitude to viewer Davincky for embracing the new ATP Geopolitics merch, designed by Chris from Clockwork Design.

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Japanese PM's Speech to Congress

🎦 00:49-04:56⏩

Jonathan analyses Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's speech to Congress. Kishida highlighted a perceived "undercurrent of self-doubt" in the US regarding its global role, particularly concerning the Ukraine War. He urged the US to reassert its leadership, suggesting a need to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Jonathan interprets Kishida's message as a call for increased US support for Ukraine as a deterrent against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan.

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UN on Russia's War & Jonathan's Live Stream

🎦 04:56-07:10⏩

The UN Assistant Secretary-General labelled Russia's war an "existential threat" to Ukrainians. Jonathan reminds viewers of his previous live stream discussion on Russia's problematic position within the UN, arguing that Russia shouldn't be a member and technically isn't. He highlights the limitations of the UN in addressing the situation due to Russia's Security Council veto power.

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Finnish President on Ukraine's Options

🎦 07:10-07:38⏩

Finnish President Alexander Stubb believes Ukraine has no choice but to continue fighting, urging the world to either support Ukraine or risk facing the consequences of Putin's continued aggression. Jonathan praises Finland's strong stance and consistent military support for Ukraine.

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Ukraine-Romania Defence Cooperation & Export Corridor

🎦 07:38-09:13⏩

Jonathan discusses the significance of the Ukraine-Romania partnership, highlighting their cooperation in defence and the crucial role of the export corridor through Romania and Moldova, which ensures global food security and provides vital economic support for Ukraine. He stresses the catastrophic consequences if Russia were to cut off this corridor by seizing Odessa, suggesting France might intervene if such a scenario arises.

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Zelensky's Meeting with Hungarian President

🎦 09:13-10:12⏩

Jonathan reports on Zelensky's first meeting with Hungarian President Katalin Novák, during which Zelensky invited Hungary to participate in the Global Peace Summit and to join the G7 Vilnius Declaration of support for Ukraine. He acknowledges the challenge Zelensky faces due to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's pro-Russian stance, drawing parallels with Slovakia where political leadership has shifted towards a pro-Russian stance.

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Slovakia's Stance on Ukraine's EU Membership

🎦 10:12-11:07⏩

Despite ceasing military aid to Ukraine, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, confirmed Slovakia's support for Ukraine's EU membership. Jonathan welcomes this news but notes the lack of further details from the meeting between Fico and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. He points out the continued support from Slovakia's defence manufacturing industry, which supplies weapons to countries aiding Ukraine.

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EU to Consider Restrictions on Ukrainian Carriers in Poland

🎦 11:07-13:05⏩

Jonathan discusses the EU's consideration of restrictions on Ukrainian carriers transporting goods through Poland. This follows protests by Polish farmers and hauliers who argue that cheaper Ukrainian goods are flooding their market due to preferential trade agreements. Jonathan acknowledges the complexity of the situation, highlighting the EU's intention to support Ukraine while addressing the concerns of its member states. He suggests potential solutions like GPS tracking of Ukrainian vehicles to ensure compliance with trade regulations.

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French Youth Opinion on the War

🎦 13:05-19:20⏩

Based on a study by French research organisations, Jonathan highlights that the war is a major concern for 18-25 year old French citizens, with a surprising 50% willing to fight for Ukraine. He contrasts this with the apparent apathy he observes in the UK, praising Macron's efforts to communicate the war's significance to the French public, particularly through his televised address. Jonathan criticizes the UK government for failing to adequately convey the gravity of the situation to its citizens, particularly young people, and encourages viewers to share their own countries' approaches to this issue. He briefly touches upon the complexity of navigating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict alongside the Ukraine war, noting how Russian propaganda often conflates these issues, potentially leading to misinformed opinions.

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Russian Influence in Africa

🎦 19:20-21:34⏩

Jonathan expresses concern over Russia's growing influence in Africa, exemplified by their training of the Nigerien military following a coup they assisted in. He cites Jane Keeve's warning about African resources fueling Putin's war machine. He believes this expansionism plays a significant role in France's calculations regarding the Ukraine war, fearing a replacement of French influence with Russian neocolonialism. He finds it strategically intriguing that Ukraine, despite its limited resources, has opened embassies in Ivory Coast and the Democratic Republic of Congo, viewing it as part of a larger effort to counter Russia's growing presence in the region. He connects this with reports of Ukrainian special forces targeting Russian assets in Sudan, interpreting it as an attempt to disrupt Russia's financial lifelines.

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Tajikistan Condemns Torture of Citizens in Russia

🎦 21:34-22:54⏩

Jonathan discusses the aftermath of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Russia, where Tajik citizens were wrongly accused and tortured into confessing. He highlights the Tajik foreign minister's condemnation of these actions, who points out the damage this has caused to the perception of Tajik citizens in Russia. Jonathan expresses hope that this could be a turning point for Tajikistan to distance itself from Russian influence, but remains uncertain about the future of their relationship.

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Switzerland's Potential Invitation to Russia for Peace Talks

🎦 22:54-23:19⏩

Jonathan reports that Switzerland will decide whether to invite Russia to the upcoming peace conference on Ukraine, acknowledging the controversial nature of such a move, particularly as Russia has repeatedly declined to participate.

Estonia Considers Designating Russian Orthodox Church as Terrorist Organisation

🎦 23:19-28:48⏩

Jonathan discusses Estonia's debate on labelling the Russian Orthodox Church as a terrorist organisation. He acknowledges the strong rhetoric but points to the historical and current use of the Church by Russian intelligence services for espionage and information control, citing Patriarch Kirill's KGB past as an example. He argues that this designation reflects Russia's strategic use of the Church to promote traditional values and enforce conformity within its population, ultimately aiming to control public opinion and action. He connects this to the broader discussion of political psychology, suggesting that dictatorships often favour traditionalist institutions like the Church to suppress independent thought and dissent, which tend to be more prevalent among liberals. He argues that Putin leverages the Church to promote a narrow, homogenous identity within Russia.

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Chinese Banks Block Payments from Russia

🎦 28:48-29:19⏩

Jonathan shares reports of Chinese banks blocking payments from Russian companies for electronic parts since late March, viewing this as potentially significant if it continues and loopholes are closed. He acknowledges the dependence of Russia on foreign electronics, making this development potentially impactful on their military capabilities.

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Lukashenko-Putin Meeting & Belarussian Involvement in the War

🎦 29:19-31:57⏩

Jonathan reports on a four-hour meeting between Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and Putin in Moscow. Lukashenko claimed that Belarus is not directly participating in the war due to heavily fortified and mined Ukrainian border, making an offensive operation impractical. Jonathan doubts the veracity of Lukashenko's claims about 120,000 troops stationed on the border, suspecting it might be a strategic bluff. He believes that Lukashenko, aware of domestic sentiment and having faced pressure from Putin in the past, is unlikely to risk a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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Migrants at the Polish-Belarusian Border

🎦 31:57-33:29⏩

Jonathan discusses reports of migrants attempting to storm the Polish border from Belarus. This follows accusations that Belarus is deliberately fueling migration into the EU to sow discord. He describes the aggressive behavior of some migrants, who were reportedly armed with stones and gas. Jonathan suggests that this tactic aims to destabilise bordering nations and exacerbate existing tensions.

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UK Government's Response to Shifting Geopolitics

🎦 33:29-37:47⏩

Jonathan analyses the UK government's response to the shifting geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for increased military preparedness in light of potential conflicts. He highlights an article by Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge in the Daily Telegraph, suggesting it's part PR effort, assuring the public that the government is actively engaged in wargaming and strategic planning with industry partners. He cites the Dragonfire laser weapon system as an example of this collaboration, noting its potential deployment with the Royal Navy and possibly even Ukraine. Jonathan sees this as indicative of a wider trend of nations reassessing their military capabilities and seeking partnerships. He specifically mentions Canada's potential involvement in the AUKUS submarine program and the growing focus on the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing the global ramifications of the Ukraine conflict.

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Wrap up

🎦 37:47-38:08⏩

Jonathan concludes by reiterating the volatile state of global geopolitics, echoing Kishida's earlier sentiment about being at an "inflection point in history," and encourages viewers to reflect on their own governments' actions. He signs off with his usual call to "like, subscribe, share" and a warm farewell.

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