Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: French Mirage 2000-5 Jets to Ukraine & 4,500 Troops Trained

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:27⏩

Jonathan kicks off with a late night breaking news update because Emmanuel Macron has just made a big announcement after attending D-Day commemorations with Zelensky and other world leaders. He jokes that his wife doesn't understand why this is big news.

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Macron announces Mirage 2000-5s and training for 4,500 Ukrainian troops

🎦 00:27-03:10⏩

Macron has announced that France will be providing Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine. A pilot training programme will also be provided but the exact number of jets is not yet known. Jonathan speculates that training may have already started in secret given that equipment can appear in Ukraine the day after it has been promised. He notes this happened with a previous announcement (unclear when). Macron also announced that France will train a French brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers and equip them so they can defend their soil. Jonathan feels that France is really stepping up its support and notes that Michael Weiss thinks the jets will be in Ukraine by the end of the year.

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Macron's support for Ukraine is sincere

🎦 03:10-05:49⏩

Jonathan believes Macron's change of stance on supporting Ukraine is sincere and not a passing fad and that he's not doing it for political gain or popularity. He believes it is the right thing to do, possibly linked to a legacy issue or the EU project. There have been calls for Macron to back up his rhetoric with action, which he now appears to be doing. Jonathan feels this announcement is huge and that credit is due to Macron who is making the right calls.

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Capabilities of the Mirage 2000-5, comparisons to F-16s and the Exocet AM-39 missile

🎦 05:49-07:31⏩

Jonathan highlights reporting from Thomas Steiner that Ukraine will receive Mirage 2000-5F fighters to target Russian jets, cruise missiles and drones or the Mirage 2005 Mk 2 multi-role fighters to sink the Russian Black Sea Fleet with AN-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles. Jonathan notes this would be a "jumping combat capability" as the countries providing F-16s haven't integrated the AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles onto theirs, making the Mirage capability very useful in the Black Sea.

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Ukraine's Air Force initially dismissed the Mirage

🎦 07:31-09:40⏩

Shashank Joshi from The Economist thinks this is good news, albeit logistically challenging. Jonathan notes that Macron announced the deal and a tweet from Ukraine's Air Force chief from January said the Mirage 2000D would enhance the capability of the Su-24M bombers and that A-10 Thunderbolt 2s would strengthen the Su-25 attack aircraft. It now seems the decision on the Mirage was a recent one as it wasn't thought likely in February. Ukraine's Air Force spokesperson had dismissed the Mirage last year as a viable option, preferring to focus on one or two types of multi-role aircraft for logistical and maintenance reasons, ideally the F-16 or the Gripen.

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Capabilities of the Mirage 2000-5

🎦 09:40-14:27⏩

Jonathan analyses the capabilities of the Mirage 2000-5 from the Wikipedia page, noting the Thompson CSF RDY radar doppler multi-target, lookdown shoot down capability that can detect targets flying as low as 60m and lock onto multiple targets on first contact. It can also use the MICA missile which can be fired at up to 6 targets simultaneously. The pilot workload is reduced by the multi-display glass cockpit based on the Rafale. It also has the ICMS Mark II countermeasure suite containing three radar detectors, an infrared sensor, active jammers and chaff flare dispensers. The RDY multi-mode has also been improved. Jonathan explains the radar can detect up to 24 targets simultaneously and track 8 threats whilst guiding four MICA missiles to different targets. It also has an updated ICMS2 countermeasure suite and a semi-DDM missile warning system which has a receiver and signal processing system in the nose to detect hostile missile command data. Avionics have also been updated with a new night vision compatible glass cockpit, borrowing from the Dassault Rafale. The dual-link, wide-angle head-up display and HOTAS controls are also present. The Mirage 2000-5 can also carry oversized drop tanks for extended range.

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MICA missile capabilities

🎦 14:27-15:12⏩

Jonathan notes the MICA missile has a 12kg warhead, proximity or impact detonation and an operational range of 60-80km. Whilst this could be better, he wonders if there will be any enhancements to the missiles.

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Jonathan's analysis - this is good for France and Ukraine

🎦 15:12-18:13⏩

Jonathan is excited about this development. He thinks France will be happy to offload their older planes and keep Ukraine in the French equipment ecosystem. He believes losing a plane is not a major loss compared to losing soldiers in battle, as it is just one person and a piece of kit, as long as the training time is not excessive. He believes that Ukraine should try to get as many planes as possible; if they can't get F-16s, then Mirage jets are the next best thing and will enhance their capabilities. Jonathan is excited that Ukraine will be able to contest the airspace and create a more level playing field. He feels that France could provide enough Mirage jets to make a real difference to the Ukrainian Air Force. He thinks that whilst Russia does have a large number of planes, it is unclear how many are in active service and how many pilots they have. This, in contrast to a number of countries (Sweden, France etc) vying to support Ukraine with aircraft, demonstrates an asymmetry that works in Ukraine's favour.

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Ukraine doesn't want too many different types of aircraft

🎦 18:13-19:39⏩

Jonathan discusses a tweet highlighting that Germany won't supply Gripen jets because Ukraine is already getting F-16s from numerous countries. He jokes that France doesn't care what the other countries are saying and has decided to provide Mirage jets with a "YOLO - you only live once" attitude. Ukraine will be very grateful but Sweden may be a little annoyed. Jonathan feels that two or three different types of aircraft is probably manageable. It seems that France and Sweden are now both fighting to provide aircraft to Ukraine, which puts Ukraine in a strong position. Russia, on the other hand, will be struggling to produce new aircraft.

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Training pilots for the Mirage won't be a huge drain on resources

🎦 19:39-21:45⏩

Jonathan thinks that training pilots is not a massive drain on resources, as it is just about finding individuals with the right skills as opposed to building battalions for the ground offensive. He thinks that 50 pilots for the Mirage and another 50 for the Gripen would be a really good start and that there are probably enough people in Ukraine willing and able to train. He thinks that France and Sweden will be falling over themselves to get their aircraft into Ukraine and the pilots trained.

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Jonathan's thoughts on the capabilities of the Mirage compared to Russian jets

🎦 21:45-22:34⏩

Jonathan wonders how the Mirage will perform against its Russian counterparts, acknowledging that his viewers may have more knowledge about this. He thinks the Russians probably have the edge when it comes to air-to-air combat and being able to fire beyond visual range but notes this also depends on Russian air defences which seem to have been degraded. He concludes that this is a really positive development.

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Wrap up

🎦 22:34-22:37⏩

Jonathan is pleased to be able to share this breaking news with his viewers.

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"Germany to Ukraine it's like Sweden not going to send Gripen as Ukraine is focusing on F-16 already with numerous countries. France hold my beer YOLO you only live once. Hold my beer says we're just going to give you these, doesn't matter what these guys are saying."