Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: WaPo Woes, Drone & Missile Paths, & Heli Bases
Table of Contents 📖
"We wait until it's almost too late and then, oh, here you are. Oh, yeah, we probably should have given that to you earlier."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Update EXTRA video, promising insights and nuggets of information about the ongoing conflict. He previews that he will be discussing a recent Washington Post article.
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Analysis of Washington Post Article on Ukraine's Counteroffensive
🎦 00:17-13:11⏩
Jonathan delves into a Washington Post article published on December 4th, which analyses the Ukrainian counter-offensive. He expresses concerns that the article unfairly places blame on Ukraine for setbacks, highlighting historian Philip O'Brien's criticism. He scrutinizes the article's arguments, particularly its failure to adequately address the lack of Ukrainian air superiority due to insufficient Western support. He argues that the article disregards crucial factors such as the lack of timely provision of essential weaponry, including ATACMS, and the inadequate training provided to Ukrainian forces, which didn't encompass key elements like drone warfare, fortifications, and minefields. He expresses his frustration with the West's approach, emphasizing that true support for Ukraine requires a wholehearted commitment to equipping them for a swift and decisive victory.
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Russian Helicopter Bases and Relocation Strategies
🎦 13:11-19:27⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russian helicopter bases, discussing a thread by Twitter user Tataragami, who reveals their locations using open-source intelligence. He details how Russia has relocated helicopter bases and established forward arming and refueling points (FARP) in response to Ukrainian strikes, highlighting a particular base on the Arabat Spit near Crimea. This relocation strategy, he notes, showcases Russia's adaptation to the increasing range of Ukrainian weaponry and its reliance on concealment tactics. Jonathan expresses frustration that individuals like Tataragami can readily identify these bases while Ukraine lacks the long-range weaponry, such as the 300km range ATACMS variant, needed to neutralize them. He criticizes the West's hesitancy to provide Ukraine with such weapons, arguing that it forces them to fight with "one hand tied behind their backs." He laments that Ukraine could effectively target these bases and cripple Russian airpower in occupied territories if they had access to the appropriate weaponry.
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Analysis of Drone and Missile Attack Routes
🎦 19:27-30:43⏩
Jonathan presents and analyses maps from texty.org.ua, which illustrate the approximate routes of Iranian-made Shahed drone and Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. He points out the concentration of drone attacks in southern Ukraine, specifically targeting areas like Odesa, Reni, Izmail, Mykolaiv, and Kherson. Conversely, he notes the limited missile attacks due to depleted Russian stockpiles. He speculates on potential future targets based on observed patterns and the location of key Ukrainian military infrastructure, expressing concern for areas like Poltava and Kryvyi Rih. He also observes that Kyiv has been largely spared from drone attacks due to its robust air defense systems. He reiterates his earlier points, emphasizing that Ukraine could significantly disrupt Russian military operations if they possessed longer-range weapons capable of targeting Russian airbases and critical military assets.
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Russian Soldier Eating Snow, UN's Inaction, and Viewer Comments
🎦 20:27-27:14⏩
Jonathan shares a poignant video of a Russian soldier resorting to eating snow for water, highlighting the stark conditions faced by some Russian troops. He acknowledges the danger of extrapolating from anecdotes while emphasizing the importance of understanding the realities on the ground. He then addresses a comment from viewer W Bin, who raises concerns about Russia's illegitimate claim to the USSR's UN Security Council seat. Jonathan concurs with W Bin's detailed argument that Russia's UN membership is technically invalid and questions why this issue hasn't been challenged. He speculates on potential reasons for the lack of action, such as fear of destabilizing the UN or triggering a "UN civil war." He reiterates his frustration over Russia's ability to paralyze the UN's response to the war in Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:44-31:17⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He acknowledges upcoming weekend commitments that might affect his usual upload schedule but assures viewers that content will be posted.
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