Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News

"The idea that Germany should be prepared to go to war with Russia by 2029 - goodness me - would we have been hearing things like this five years ago? No, not even remotely."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the third part of his Ukraine War update for 6th June 2024. He mentions he had to re-record the video.

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Zelensky in Qatar

🎦 00:15-01:22⏩

Zelensky visits Qatar. Jonathan highlights the importance of Ukraine seeking support from the Middle East. Zelensky states that Qatar is assisting in returning Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and is involved in Peace Summit preparations. The leaders discussed supporting the return of displaced people, global food security and economic and security issues.

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German Defence Minister - Prepare for war with Russia by 2029

🎦 01:23-04:19⏩

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius states that Germany should be ready for war with Russia by 2029. Jonathan is shocked by the statement given previous attempts to foster positive relations with Russia. Pistorius believes that Russia has switched to a war economy and will continue to arm itself. Jonathan analyses the statement using a Carroll diagram, comparing the possible outcomes of spending money on defence now versus delaying spending. He concludes that the risk of being unprepared for a Russian invasion is too high and supports the insurance policy of increased defence spending.

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EU Elections and Ukraine Fatigue

🎦 04:19-05:38⏩

Jonathan discusses the upcoming EU elections and the rise of right-wing populist movements. He expresses concern about Russian interference, ukraine fatigue, and the potential impact of far-right politicians on European support for Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges advocating for the status quo, highlighting the need for a stable and united Europe to counter the threat from Russia.

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US House Speaker on Ukraine War

🎦 05:38-06:24⏩

Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, believes that the Biden administration is micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine and should provide more weapons without restrictions. Jonathan agrees that the US should provide unconditional military support.

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Jonathan's GOP Strategy

🎦 06:24-07:41⏩

Jonathan suggests a political strategy for the GOP, advising them to take a strong stance against Russia, criticising Biden's perceived restraint on weapon use. He believes this approach would attract centrist voters and traditional Republicans who are disillusioned with Trump's stance on Ukraine. He argues that this approach would be more effective than Trump's current stance, which alienates potential voters.

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Tommy Tuberville's Pro-Russia Stance

🎦 07:47-09:17⏩

Jonathan criticises Senator Tommy Tuberville for repeating Russian propaganda, highlighting Tuberville's claim that Putin only wants peace and does not desire Ukraine or Europe. Jonathan is shocked by these comments and labels them as Russian propaganda, particularly concerning given Tuberville's position on the US Armed Services Committee.

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Steve Bannon's Influence on Trump

🎦 09:17-10:21⏩

Jonathan analyses Tuberville's appearance on Steve Bannon's "War Room" show, arguing that Bannon's views heavily influence Trump's thinking on Ukraine. He suggests that Tuberville's pro-Russia stance reflects Trump's own views and warns against expecting a strong pro-Ukraine stance from Trump in the 2024 election.

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Trump, Russia and the GOP

🎦 10:21-11:50⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the spread of Russian propaganda within the GOP, citing Republicans Mike Turner and Mike McFaul, who have publicly acknowledged this issue. He argues that while a majority of Republicans may disagree with pro-Russia sentiments, they are failing to challenge the vocal minority aligned with Trump. Jonathan suggests that this reluctance stems from the fact that the pro-Russia faction within the GOP more accurately reflects Trump's views than the party's mainstream. This creates a dilemma where the party is beholden to a fringe group that holds significant sway over its direction.

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Donald Trump Jr. in El Salvador

🎦 11:50-12:17⏩

Jonathan criticises Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to El Salvador, a country he characterises as pro-Russian, and his interactions with its politicians. He views this as further evidence of the Trump family's concerning ties to pro-Russian figures. Jonathan mentions that a viewer named Jay and Keith had commented on Donald Trump Jr. and Tucker Carlson meeting with the president of El Salvador.

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El Salvador, Russia and Tucker Carlson

🎦 12:17-13:21⏩

Jonathan discusses an interview by Tucker Carlson with Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, where Bukele claimed that Russia is immune to sanctions. Jonathan argues that Carlson's interview with Bukele, following his interview with Trump, suggests an intentional effort to promote pro-Russian narratives. He criticises both Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. for aligning themselves with figures who support Russia's actions. Jonathan is astonished that a US presidential candidate in 2024 could potentially be influenced by the Kremlin.

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Jared Kushner's Belgrade Deal

🎦 13:21-14:25⏩

Jonathan criticises Jared Kushner's controversial $500 million real estate deal in Belgrade, Serbia, which includes plans for a memorial to victims of NATO aggression. Wesley Clark, NATO commander during the 1990 war against Serbia, labels this deal a betrayal of US efforts to stop Serbian ethnic cleansing. Jonathan sees this deal as another example of the Trump family aligning themselves with pro-Russian or anti-Western figures and is astounded by their actions.

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Biden Restricts Ukraine Strikes into Russia

🎦 14:27-15:09⏩

Jonathan notes that Biden, in an interview, stated that the US would not allow Ukraine to strike 320 km into Russia using American weapons. He explains this restriction is a response to questions about whether Ukraine could target Moscow with US-supplied weapons, emphasising that neither Storm Shadow missiles nor SCALP-EG missiles have the range to reach Moscow, let alone ATACMS missiles.

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Biden's Remarks on Putin

🎦 15:09-16:12⏩

Jonathan discusses Biden's comments on Putin during the same interview. Biden referred to Putin as not a decent man, a dictator and in a previous statement a "brutal tyrant". Jonathan believes that these statements, while controversial, are significant given Biden's political stature. He interprets this as a reflection of the seriousness of the situation.

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Possible Release of Evan Gershkovich

🎦 16:12-17:16⏩

Jonathan reports that the Kremlin and White House are negotiating the release of Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal journalist detained in Russia. He describes Russia's actions as a power play, highlighting the asymmetry between the two countries. Jonathan believes that Russia is likely to exploit this situation to gain leverage over the US, using Gershkovich as a bargaining chip.

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ADM and the Stolen Grain

🎦 17:16-17:51⏩

Jonathan discusses the case of ADM, a large American agricultural business, that was found to be involved in dealings with Russia through China, essentially participating in the theft of Ukrainian grain. He notes that ADM's head of global supply is leaving the company, although it's unclear whether this departure is linked to the Hunter Brook media reports exposing ADM's involvement in this scheme.

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Cyberattack on the UK's NHS

🎦 17:52-23:19⏩

Jonathan reports that a cyberattack on the UK's National Health Service (NHS) is suspected to be the work of Russian criminals. While acknowledging the possibility of plausible deniability, Jonathan believes that the Russian state is likely involved, either directly orchestrating the attack or implicitly allowing it. He argues that Russia benefits from this ambiguity, as it deters a strong response from the West due to the fear of escalation. Jonathan questions the adequacy of current responses to cyber warfare, arguing that the consequences, including potential loss of life, are comparable to physical attacks. He calls for a more robust approach to counter Russia's escalating cyber aggression.

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Donbass Native Arrested in France

🎦 23:19-24:25⏩

Jonathan reports that French police have arrested a Donbass native near Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport on suspicion of planning to blow up a cargo shipment of military aid destined for Ukraine. The individual was found with explosive devices, blank passports, cash and weapons. Jonathan questions whether this incident constitutes an act of war by Russia and highlights the difficulty in attributing such actions directly to the Russian state. He draws parallels with the burning down of a shopping mall in Poland, suggesting Russian involvement, but acknowledges the lack of conclusive evidence prevents a strong response from Poland.

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Poland, Sabotage and Escalation

🎦 24:25-25:33⏩

Jonathan notes that Poland has experienced a series of incidents, including the arrest of 18 individuals for sabotage, surveillance of military equipment movements and the burning of a shopping mall. He believes that these events could be part of a larger pattern of Russian aggression. Jonathan suggests that Poland is nearing a tipping point where it may have to respond more forcefully. He also references comments from NATO officials like Rob Bauer, who suggest that significant cyberattacks could potentially trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, leading to collective defence measures and potentially escalating into open conflict.

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Knowledge is Power Substack Recommendation

🎦 25:33-26:42⏩

Jonathan encourages viewers to check out the Substack "Knowledge is Power" run by Talaria (vlp888.substack.com), whom he interviewed previously. He praises the Substack for its insights and debunking of Kremlin propaganda, mentioning several articles that caught his attention.

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Wrap up

🎦 26:42-26:49⏩

Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for their support.

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