Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News

Hello Team🎦 00:00-00:11⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the third part of his Ukraine War update for the 23rd May 2024 - Geopolitics news.

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US/Ukraine: Zelensky's Interview with the New York Times🎦 00:11-04:08⏩

Jonathan discusses the New York Times' transcript of Zelensky's recent interview, highlighting the following key takeaways:

• Zelensky has pleaded with the Biden administration for permission to strike Russian forces massing near the border, arguing that escalation has already occurred.
• The US remains concerned about completely severing ties with Russia and fears potential nuclear retaliation, which Zelensky believes is unlikely.
• Zelensky acknowledges the presence of foreign personnel in Ukraine but denies the deployment of NATO troops. He expresses a desire for a NATO invitation before the war's end and advocates for increased military aid, particularly Patriot systems and F-16 fighter jets.
• Jonathan praises media outlets that release full interview transcripts, allowing audiences to glean their own insights beyond the reporter's chosen narrative.

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US/Ukraine: Calls for a No-Fly Zone and Allowing Ukraine to Strike Russia🎦 04:08-07:11⏩

Jonathan analyses an article in 'The Hill', which argues that Ukraine's fate hinges on Biden's decision regarding the use of US-supplied weapons against targets within Russia. The article suggests that a no-fly zone is justified, given Russian airspace violations of NATO members and attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Drawing parallels with Israel's air defence system, the authors contend that a no-fly zone would deter Russian aggression without sparking a global conflict. Jonathan agrees with the article's premise, urging Biden to emulate Roosevelt's decisiveness and support Ukraine unequivocally. He encourages prominent Republicans to join calls for increased Ukrainian military autonomy, potentially swaying disillusioned voters away from pro-Putin factions.

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UK: Sunak Calls a Snap Election🎦 09:08-11:55⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to UK politics, commenting on Rishi Sunak's recent and widely criticised decision to call a snap election on July 4th. He recounts Sunak's ill-fated outdoor election announcement, which was marred by heavy rain and the unfortunate choice of background music - D:Ream's "Things Can Only Get Better" - originally used by the Labour Party during their successful 1997 campaign. Jonathan notes the humour in Sunak's soggy appearance, drawing parallels with past political gaffes involving Theresa May and Ed Miliband, concluding that optics are crucial in politics.

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UK/Ukraine: Bipartisan Support for Ukraine but Labour Needs to Differentiate Itself From the Conservatives🎦 11:55-15:50⏩

Jonathan discusses the upcoming UK general election, noting that while Labour's victory seems likely, the party needs to differentiate its approach to supporting Ukraine from the incumbent Conservatives. Despite bipartisan support for Ukraine, Jonathan highlights analysis suggesting Labour should offer a distinct strategy rather than merely continuing existing policies. He posits that Labour could differentiate itself by more vocally supporting the deployment of allied trainers to Ukraine or explicitly endorsing Ukraine's use of UK-supplied missiles, such as Storm Shadows, within Russia. Jonathan stresses the importance of Labour presenting a clear and distinct policy on Ukraine to bolster its electoral appeal.

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Ukraine/NATO: Zelensky to Visit France and Italy to Request Missile Defence Support🎦 15:50-16:19⏩

Jonathan reports, citing Politico, that Zelensky is scheduled to visit France and Italy to lobby for NATO's assistance in shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine, drawing inspiration from Israel's successful air defence model. This request highlights the ongoing debate surrounding NATO's involvement in providing air defence support to Ukraine.

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Finland/Russia: Russia's Provocative Actions and Hybrid Warfare Tactics🎦 16:19-20:08⏩

Jonathan cites Finnish expert Emil Kastahelmy's analysis of Russia's recent actions towards Finland, including the brief and unexplained attempt to redraw maritime borders near Kaliningrad. Kastalhelmy argues that Russia's move was a deliberate provocation, designed to test Finland's response and assert dominance. He highlights previous instances of Russian hybrid warfare against Finland, such as weaponised migration, cyber-attacks, and GPS jamming, all aimed at destabilising the nation. Jonathan and Kastahelmy both believe Russia seeks to gauge Western resolve through calculated provocations, constantly pushing boundaries and exploiting perceived weaknesses. Jonathan expresses his frustration with what he perceives as Russia's deliberate obfuscation and "taking the piss", advocating for a firm response to curb Russia's disruptive behaviour.

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Estonia/Russia: Russia Removes Estonian Border Markers🎦 22:06-23:41⏩

Jonathan reports that Russian border guards have removed Estonian-placed navigational markers from the Narva River, citing Estonian news source 'News.err.ee'. Despite an agreement on their placement in 2022, Russia unilaterally removed the markers, claiming disagreement with their locations. Jonathan sees this as further evidence of Russia's strategy of provocation and boundary-pushing across multiple domains, including cyberspace, maritime borders, and physical territory. He criticizes Russia's outsized global influence, achieved through a pattern of disruptive behaviour that benefits China's strategic interests.

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Poland/Russia: Speculation of Russian Involvement in Shopping Centre Fire and Espionage Arrests🎦 23:41-26:15⏩

Jonathan highlights concerns over escalating tensions between Poland and Russia, referencing former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's suggestion that Russia may have been involved in a recent fire that destroyed a Warsaw shopping centre. He also points to the arrest of individuals in Poland on suspicion of espionage, potentially linked to Russia's surveillance of military aid routes to Ukraine. Jonathan questions the threshold for concrete action against Russia, drawing parallels with the attribution problem in cyberwarfare. He criticizes the West's seemingly passive response to Russia's increasingly hostile actions, arguing for a more robust stance against what he views as blatant aggression.

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Jonathan's Frustration with Lack of Response to Russian Cyberattacks🎦 26:15-28:16⏩

Jonathan expresses frustration with individuals who downplay the severity of Russian cyberattacks against the West. He recounts a recent Twitter exchange where an American commentator, despite being pro-Ukraine, dismissed the significance of Russia's cyber activity while advocating for a greater focus on China. Jonathan criticizes this cognitive dissonance, lamenting the loss of critical thinking skills in those who prioritize political ideology over objective analysis of Russia's hostile actions.

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Norway/Russia: Norway Bans Russian Tourists🎦 28:16-28:32⏩

Jonathan briefly notes Norway's decision to ban Russian tourists from entering the country from May 29th, highlighting the Norwegian government's statement that the restriction applies to visas issued both by Norway and other Schengen countries.

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Belarus/Russia/EU: EU to Tighten Sanctions Against Belarus🎦 28:32-29:17⏩

Jonathan reports on the EU's preparations to impose stricter sanctions on Belarus, aimed at closing loopholes that allow Russia to circumvent existing sanctions by importing luxury goods and other banned items through Belarus. The new measures target technologies, goods with military applications, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and diamonds.

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Georgia/Russia/US: Georgia's Foreign Agent Law and Potential US Support Bill🎦 29:17-33:54⏩

Jonathan discusses the controversial foreign agents law in Georgia, which has sparked mass protests in Tbilisi. He suggests that the ruling Georgian Dream party might leverage a proposed US support bill - offering trade deals and economic aid in exchange for greater respect for civil rights - as a way to back down from the law without appearing to capitulate to Russian pressure or domestic unrest. Jonathan draws parallels with behaviour management techniques, arguing that incentivizing positive change is often more effective than punitive measures. He predicts that Georgia will carefully navigate this complex geopolitical situation, aiming to maximize benefits from both the West and Russia.

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Serbia and Other Nations Considering Foreign Agents Law🎦 34:00-35:05⏩

Jonathan highlights the concerning trend of countries within Russia's sphere of influence, such as Serbia, considering implementing foreign agent laws similar to those in Russia and Georgia. He suggests that Russia is actively promoting these laws to restrict the activities of foreign NGOs and further its geopolitical agenda. Jonathan provides examples of Bosnia, Kyrgyzstan, and Slovakia as countries either considering or having already implemented such legislation. He notes that Hungary and Russia already have similar laws in place.

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China/US: China Sanctions US Companies Over Arms Sales to Taiwan🎦 35:05-38:16⏩

Jonathan expresses concern over escalating tensions between the US and China as China imposes sanctions on 12 American military companies and 10 defense executives in retaliation for US arms sales to Taiwan. He highlights the potential for this tit-for-tat exchange to escalate into a dangerous game of chicken, hoping that cooler heads will prevail. Despite acknowledging the risks, Jonathan believes that the US must remain firm in its support for Taiwan and call out Russia's actions in Ukraine, even at the risk of further antagonizing China.

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Wrap Up🎦 38:16-38:20⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and signs off.

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"Russia is taking a piss and at some point, we've just got to go 'Stop messing about'. I'm not advocating hitting children or anything like that, but there needs to be some kind of cuffing of the Russian diplomacy, of the Kremlin essentially, to the point where it's like, 'No, enough's enough. You guys stop it. Just bloody stop it.'"