Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"There's no reason that Russia would just hold on to missiles for a laugh."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update, apologising for a slight delay due to life getting in the way. He reminds viewers that source caveats can be found in the video description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine & Germany Report Russian Losses
🎦 00:20-01:39⏩
Ukraine and Germany report the loss of 800 Russian personnel, two tanks, 13 armoured vehicles, and 12 artillery systems. Jonathan notes that while this number is high, it represents a decrease compared to figures from the previous three months. Other losses include MLRS, anti-aircraft systems, and special equipment. Jonathan reminds viewers to consider the impact of weather conditions on both sides.
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Drone Losses
🎦 01:39-02:28⏩
Jonathan highlights that social media reports over the past 24 hours mainly focus on drone losses. He points out that the ratio of losses is approximately 2:1, favouring Russia.
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Analysis of Equipment Losses
🎦 02:28-04:24⏩
Jonathan analyzes the equipment losses, highlighting the loss of several Western-provided M109 and an M777 artillery systems by the Ukrainians, noting that four pieces lost is "a bit of an issue." On the Russian side, he emphasizes the loss of electronic warfare equipment, including two TOS-1A thermobaric launchers, a T-90M tank, and a recovery vehicle, noting their high value and impact on Russian capabilities. He emphasizes the difficulty of generalising equipment advantages across the entire front line, citing the Ukrainian advantage in the Kreminna area as an example.
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TOS-1A Thermobaric Launchers: Effective But Vulnerable
🎦 04:26-06:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness and vulnerabilities of the TOS-1A thermobaric launchers, referencing a video by Perun on "game-changing pieces of kit." He notes the TOS-1A's inclusion on the list due to its impact but highlights its limited range, slow loading times, and vulnerability to cheap FPV drones. He suggests that the TOS-1A might be more appropriately categorised as one of the "most disappointing weapons" due to its high cost, vulnerability, and limited impact. Despite acknowledging the "horrific" damage inflicted, Jonathan questions the overall effectiveness of the TOS-1A in the war.
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Partisan Activity in Nizhny Tagil
🎦 06:13-07:14⏩
Jonathan reports on an explosive device detonated on a railway in Nizhny Tagil, 1650 kilometers from the front line, attributing the incident to partisan activity. He mentions damage to nine railroad fuel tanks and acknowledges issues with video loading on Twitter. Jonathan emphasizes the significance of such strikes deep within Russian territory, highlighting the Ukrainians' reach and the potential vulnerability of targets within Russia.
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Russia on Fire: Penza & Vladimir Region
🎦 07:14-08:15⏩
Jonathan cites Tim White's reports of fires in Penza and the Vladimir region of Russia. He mentions power and hot water outages affecting around 2,500 people in Penza and notes a fire that engulfed a nearby construction site, resulting in two fatalities. Jonathan points to the burning down of a garment factory in the Vladimir region as another example, suggesting an "insurance job" as a possible explanation for the increasing number of fires, linking it to the struggling economy due to the war.
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Ukrainian Standoff Munitions Strikes
🎦 08:15-14:13⏩
Jonathan focuses on a series of successful standoff munition strikes conducted by Ukraine. He reports on an oil depot hit in Oryol, drone attacks in Crimea and Kursk, and a strike on the Engels-2 airbase, highlighting the increasing frequency and depth of Ukrainian strikes within Russia. He emphasises the potential for these attacks to disrupt Russian military operations, particularly their ability to launch cruise and ballistic missiles. Jonathan argues that the lack of consistent Russian missile strikes on Ukraine is indicative of dwindling stockpiles and production constraints. He dismisses pro-Kremlin claims about Russian military capabilities and suggests that Russia's inability to maintain a consistent barrage of missile attacks points to a weakened position.
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Heating & Power Outages Across Russia
🎦 14:13-18:31⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to widespread heating, hot water, and electricity outages across Russia, citing reports from Anton Gerashchenko and Tim White. He lists affected regions, including Moscow, Tver, Saratov, Kantimanisk, Vladimir, Penza, Solnechnogorsk, Kuznetsk, and numerous cottage communities, noting rising public discontent. Jonathan draws a connection between these outages and Russia's wartime spending priorities, speculating that discontent over these issues could potentially fuel broader dissatisfaction with the war effort. He acknowledges that while current polls don't reflect widespread opposition, he questions their reliability. Jonathan concludes that Russia's internal struggles, even if indirectly related to the war, ultimately benefit Ukraine by weakening the regime's stability.
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Cyberwarfare: Ukrainian Hackers Target Russia
🎦 18:31-19:17⏩
Jonathan discusses recent cyberattacks, reporting that Ukrainian hackers from the Blackjack group targeted Moscow internet provider M9.com, deleting 20 terabytes of data and disrupting internet and TV services for some residents. He also notes an increase in retaliatory cyberattacks from Russia targeting Ukraine, indicating an ongoing cyberwar between the two countries.
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Power Outages in Ukraine & Odessa
🎦 19:17-19:45⏩
Jonathan acknowledges the impact of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, highlighting ongoing power outages in various cities. He specifically mentions DTEK restoring power to 218,000 people in Odesa and notes outages in other areas.
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Ukrainian Officials Visit Kupyansk Region
🎦 19:45-20:50⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and Chief of the General Staff Serhiy Shaptala visited Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk region. He mentions concerns about a potential Russian offensive in the area and highlights the importance of ongoing assessments and strategic decision-making by Ukrainian leadership.
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Detention of Ukrainian Civilians in Russia
🎦 20:50-21:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the BBC's report on the detention of thousands of Ukrainian civilians in Russian penal colonies and pre-trial detention centres. He states that these detentions stem from accusations of opposing the “special military operation,” including instances where Ukrainians in occupied territories refused to participate in mobilisation efforts.
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Alexei Navalny's Court Appearance
🎦 21:37-22:19⏩
Jonathan shares news of Alexei Navalny's first public appearance via video link after weeks of uncertainty about his whereabouts. He reports that Navalny, who was previously moved from his prison, appeared for a hearing on his lawsuit regarding illegal solitary confinement. Jonathan notes the significance of seeing Navalny alive and well, despite his ongoing legal battles and detention.
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Sparky the Rescue Dog
🎦 22:19-23:28⏩
Jonathan ends on a positive note, showcasing a 10-year-old Belgian Malinois search and rescue dog named Sparky who has been actively saving lives in Ukraine. He highlights Sparky's impressive record of rescuing over 140 people from rubble, commending the dog's agility and dedication. Jonathan expresses anticipation for the heartwarming stories of heroism and resilience that will emerge after the war.
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Wrap Up
🎦 23:28-23:40⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off, promising to return soon with more updates.
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