Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Every piece of equipment I am reporting to you that is being given, every single piece of equipment that is not happening for Russia...That balance has been tipped in Ukraine's favour and has been for months. And there is no conceivable way, unless China step in and start giving Russia things directly, there's no way that that's going to be reversed."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war news before his frontline update later in the day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- The Ukrainians released figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats about propaganda and accuracy.
- Personnel losses dropped to 610, which is still decent from the Ukrainian perspective.
- Equipment losses also dropped, possibly indicating a quieter day or one where the Russians did better.
Fires in Russia
- A fire broke out at the Rumyantsevo market near Moscow, soon covering 200 square meters.
- Another fire broke out in Crimea on a highway under construction, in the accommodation units for workers. Some claims that seven people died.
- These incidents seem to occur daily, possibly due to "smoking Russians" or partisan activity.
Russian Missile Attack on Kramatorsk
- The Russians launched a missile attack on Kramatorsk overnight.
- At least 2-3 people were killed and a number wounded.
- A high-rise building in the city centre was completely destroyed and rescue efforts are ongoing.
- Kramatorsk is behind Bakhmut and regularly gets hit by Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles used in secondary mode, which are less accurate.
- Questions remain whether the Russians were aiming for the apartment block or a genuine military target.
Military Aid
- Norway is considering sending CV-90 multi-role variants (infantry fighting vehicles with sizable guns) to Ukraine. They have 16 but the number to be sent is unknown.
- Spain will deliver about 20 M113 APCs, old workhorse vehicles used to transport troops. They will depart next Monday from the port of Bilbao.
- Spain also plans to transfer 4-6 refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks in the near future, out of a potential 53. More will be sent as they are fixed up.
- France will send GM200 radars for Ukraine's air defense. These are decent pieces of kit with 250km detection range that Ukraine needs in large numbers.
- Denmark plans to transfer Leopard 1A5 tanks, an older model. 20 out of 99 in storage can be prepared within 3 months and could still be useful to Ukraine.
- Jordan has 80 Challenger 1 tanks that are being phased out. Jonathan suggests giving these to Ukraine as they could upgrade their current capabilities.
GL-SDB Bombs
- There was initial concern that the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GL-SDB) included in the latest US military aid package would need to be manufactured first.
- However, the manufacturer Boeing apparently has some stock available to send to Ukraine right away.
- These bombs have a 150km range when fired from HIMARS and are cheaper than other similar munitions.
Austria's Stance on Weapons
- Austria reiterated its position of not supplying weapons to Ukraine due to its neutral status enshrined in the constitution since WWII.
- Changing this would require a 2/3 vote in parliament which is not likely at the moment.
- Austria has neglected its own military armaments for decades and has little to supply.
- However, Austria has expelled 4 Russian diplomats on suspicion of espionage, showing it sides with Ukraine morally/politically.
US Exposes Russian Sanctions Evasion Network
- The US Treasury exposed a network of 10 individuals and 12 entities that have helped Russia circumvent sanctions to obtain microchips and other tech for its military industrial complex.
- The network is led by a Russian and Cyprus-based arms dealer Igor Zimenkov. Some members worked for sanctioned Russian defense firms.
- The network pumped money through shell companies in places like Singapore, Latin America and Cyprus for legal cover.
- Exposing and restricting this network is good, but the question is whether it will meaningfully constrict the flow of banned goods into Russia.
Anti-Corruption Raids in Ukraine
- The SBU (Ukraine's security service) raided one oligarch and other officials' homes/offices on direct order from Zelensky as part of an internal war on corruption.
- Jonathan notes that the perceived probability of getting caught is a stronger deterrent to corruption than harsh punishment.
- These visible raids will make corrupt officials reassess the chances of being caught and deter such behavior.
Russian Equipment Losses
- Russia has now lost over 9,000 pieces of heavy weaponry, equipment and vehicles since the invasion began, based on visual confirmations. The real number is likely well over 10,000.
- This is more equipment than most armies in the world have. It's a huge loss for Russia.
- Russia is getting almost no replacement equipment from allies, while Ukraine is being supplied by the West. There is no way for Russia to reverse this imbalance.
- Russia's military export potential is being used up as they can't fulfill orders. They are taking old tanks out of storage and upgrading them, but with subpar components.
- Unless China steps in to directly arm Russia, the long-term prognosis for Russian military success looks bleak as Ukraine's equipment is steadily upgraded.
Putin's Supposed March Deadline for Donbas
- According to Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andre Cherniak, Putin has ordered the seizure of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March.
- Rumours of a new Russian offensive to fulfil this have been circulating for weeks.
- However, given how many months it has taken Russia to make progress in Bakhmut, taking all of the Donbas in two months seems like a very tough call.
- The remaining Ukrainian-held areas of Donbas include major cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk on high ground, which will be difficult for Russia to capture.
Wrap Up
Jonathan encourages viewers to:
- Check out his upcoming frontline update
- Watch an interview he did on Orist Zub's YouTube channel
- Look out for a potential interview with a friend from Iran, though his plans may change due to a family emergency with his son.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I was not able to determine the exact spelling of some of the Ukrainian place names and pieces of military equipment mentioned. I did my best to transcribe them phonetically.
I was not clear on the exact details of Jonathan's son's accident and hospital visit that he mentioned at the end. I summarized it generally to respect privacy.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract video title, date and part from the YouTube title
Watch for key topics and summarize each one, keeping the order they appear in the video
Look out for any sources/people Jonathan credits and include them
Capture any of Jonathan's opinions, insights, and analysis
Use British English spelling and grammar
Include an introduction and wrap-up section
Bold any names, places or important terms
Select a key quote from the video that captures the main message or an profound insight from Jonathan
