Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Title:Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update Topics:
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Table of Contents 📖
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"I don't know whether it's a good idea or not. I guess time will tell. I'm kind of swinging from one side to the other at the moment."
Hello Team!
Jonathan had a friend visit so he had to pop out for a ginger beer. He's back now to provide the frontline update for 24 May 2023.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian aircraft downed on 13 May
- Russian Air Force affiliated channel Fighter Bomber reporting all helicopters and fighter jets downed on 13 May were shot down by Ukrainian Patriot air defense system
- 11 pilots died, Russia lost Su-34, Su-35 and two Mi-8s, possibly a third helicopter
- Could be Russian air defense going nuts or indeed Patriot, not 100% sure
Belgorod region incursion
- Russian forces have apparently retaken control of land seized in yesterday's incursion into Belgorod
- Many different reports of what happened, unclear if it was just happening near Graveiron or in other places too
- Could have been small-scale incursions then retreating to make Russians panic and send forces around the area, fixing their troops in place
- No long-term threat realistically from pro-Ukrainian forces in the area
- Objective wouldn't have been to claim territory for Ukraine or an independent Belgorod Republic
- Planned to be an incursion then retreat to keep Russians on their toes
- Could be to distract from what's happening in Bakhmut while fixing Russians in place and making them look foolish/panicked
- Defense Minister Shoigu called it a "terrorist act", said MOD will respond harshly, claimed 70 saboteurs killed but no evidence of this
Kreminna area
- Some Russian pushing north of Ploshchanka towards Makiivka/Nevske, towards Terny/Torske, and south towards Bilohorivka
- ISW reports activity in usual places like Mazanivka near Lyman, Makiivka, Torske, Terny, Nevske
- Geolocated evidence of Russians active in forests of Kreminna but no exchange of territory
Bakhmut
- Ukrainian officials state pace of fighting has decreased in Bakhmut area, limited Ukrainian counterattacks on flanks
- Ukrainian General Staff did not report fighting in Bakhmut city for first time since Dec 2022, suggesting Wagner may have made further advances within city
- Only change to Deep State's map is small area in SW corner now under Russian control
- Deputy Defense Minister Malyar says combat operations decreased, Ukraine maintains positions in fortified area near MiG-17 monument in W Bakhmut
- Milblogger claims no Ukrainian forces near MiG-17 monument based on video
- Spokesperson Cherevaty says Ukraine advanced 200-400m on Bakhmut flanks, still controls buildings/fortifications in SW
- Russian milblogger claims Ukrainian advance near Yahidne, unsuccessful Russian attacks near Hryhorivka & Ivanivske
- Another milblogger denies Ukrainian gains in counterattacks NW and SW of Bakhmut, says Russian offensive from Bakhmut to Ivanivske/Klishchiivka unlikely
Avdiivka area
- Russian helicopter reportedly shot down around New York in recent days
- ISW reports Russian defensive operations towards Novokalynove, Sieverne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske - the usual places
- Fierce fighting continues in Marinka, Ukraine repelled numerous assaults there
- 19 combat clashes reported in Avdiivka and Marinka
- Russian source claims assault operations near Pervomaiske (SW approach to Avdiivka)
- Geolocated footage shows elements of 287th Separate Rifle Battalion operating S of Avdiivka but no real gains indicated by ISW
Southern front - Zaporizhzhia & Kherson
- No Russian offensive operations SW of Donetsk
- Some activity possibly around Droznyanka, report of Russians using marines there
- Otherwise softening up activities by Ukraine in the area
- Reports of Russians doing defensive work in Crimea, mining bank of Dnipro River
- Both sides hitting equipment on both sides of river, e.g. 2 Russian self-propelled guns taken out by river
Wrap up
- Overall a quiet day reflected in low personnel losses reported by Ukraine General Staff
- High artillery losses reported, likely more strategic pinpoint hits on equipment to soften battlefield vs incursions
- Belgorod incursion likely over for now, having done what it was intended to do
- Expecting strikes with HIMARS, Storm Shadow, artillery, EW systems precisely targeted along front, especially in south, to prepare for counteroffensive
- Media talked about "spring offensive" but Ukraine never specified spring, just said there would be a counteroffensive
- Could be waiting for right moment based on equipment, trained forces, weather, battlefield shaping - may happen imminently or in June/July
Return to top⤴️ Jonathan hopes this update was useful despite rushing through it today. He signs off with his customary "two little pips" and will catch up later.
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