Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"I don't know whether it's a good idea or not. I guess time will tell. I'm kind of swinging from one side to the other at the moment."
Hello Team!
Jonathan had a friend visit so he had to pop out for a ginger beer. He's back now to provide the frontline update for 24 May 2023.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian aircraft downed on 13 May
- Russian Air Force affiliated channel Fighter Bomber reporting all helicopters and fighter jets downed on 13 May were shot down by Ukrainian Patriot air defense system
- 11 pilots died, Russia lost Su-34, Su-35 and two Mi-8s, possibly a third helicopter
- Could be Russian air defense going nuts or indeed Patriot, not 100% sure
Belgorod region incursion
- Russian forces have apparently retaken control of land seized in yesterday's incursion into Belgorod
- Many different reports of what happened, unclear if it was just happening near Graveiron or in other places too
- Could have been small-scale incursions then retreating to make Russians panic and send forces around the area, fixing their troops in place
- No long-term threat realistically from pro-Ukrainian forces in the area
- Objective wouldn't have been to claim territory for Ukraine or an independent Belgorod Republic
- Planned to be an incursion then retreat to keep Russians on their toes
- Could be to distract from what's happening in Bakhmut while fixing Russians in place and making them look foolish/panicked
- Defense Minister Shoigu called it a "terrorist act", said MOD will respond harshly, claimed 70 saboteurs killed but no evidence of this
Kreminna area
- Some Russian pushing north of Ploshchanka towards Makiivka/Nevske, towards Terny/Torske, and south towards Bilohorivka
- ISW reports activity in usual places like Mazanivka near Lyman, Makiivka, Torske, Terny, Nevske
- Geolocated evidence of Russians active in forests of Kreminna but no exchange of territory
Bakhmut
- Ukrainian officials state pace of fighting has decreased in Bakhmut area, limited Ukrainian counterattacks on flanks
- Ukrainian General Staff did not report fighting in Bakhmut city for first time since Dec 2022, suggesting Wagner may have made further advances within city
- Only change to Deep State's map is small area in SW corner now under Russian control
- Deputy Defense Minister Malyar says combat operations decreased, Ukraine maintains positions in fortified area near MiG-17 monument in W Bakhmut
- Milblogger claims no Ukrainian forces near MiG-17 monument based on video
- Spokesperson Cherevaty says Ukraine advanced 200-400m on Bakhmut flanks, still controls buildings/fortifications in SW
- Russian milblogger claims Ukrainian advance near Yahidne, unsuccessful Russian attacks near Hryhorivka & Ivanivske
- Another milblogger denies Ukrainian gains in counterattacks NW and SW of Bakhmut, says Russian offensive from Bakhmut to Ivanivske/Klishchiivka unlikely
Avdiivka area
- Russian helicopter reportedly shot down around New York in recent days
- ISW reports Russian defensive operations towards Novokalynove, Sieverne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske - the usual places
- Fierce fighting continues in Marinka, Ukraine repelled numerous assaults there
- 19 combat clashes reported in Avdiivka and Marinka
- Russian source claims assault operations near Pervomaiske (SW approach to Avdiivka)
- Geolocated footage shows elements of 287th Separate Rifle Battalion operating S of Avdiivka but no real gains indicated by ISW
Southern front - Zaporizhzhia & Kherson
- No Russian offensive operations SW of Donetsk
- Some activity possibly around Droznyanka, report of Russians using marines there
- Otherwise softening up activities by Ukraine in the area
- Reports of Russians doing defensive work in Crimea, mining bank of Dnipro River
- Both sides hitting equipment on both sides of river, e.g. 2 Russian self-propelled guns taken out by river
Wrap up
- Overall a quiet day reflected in low personnel losses reported by Ukraine General Staff
- High artillery losses reported, likely more strategic pinpoint hits on equipment to soften battlefield vs incursions
- Belgorod incursion likely over for now, having done what it was intended to do
- Expecting strikes with HIMARS, Storm Shadow, artillery, EW systems precisely targeted along front, especially in south, to prepare for counteroffensive
- Media talked about "spring offensive" but Ukraine never specified spring, just said there would be a counteroffensive
- Could be waiting for right moment based on equipment, trained forces, weather, battlefield shaping - may happen imminently or in June/July
Return to top⤴️ Jonathan hopes this update was useful despite rushing through it today. He signs off with his customary "two little pips" and will catch up later.
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