Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update
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Table of Contents 📖
"What you've got are two sides with the potential to do and take more."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for a frontline update on 27th February 2025.
- He directs new viewers to the map legend to understand the markings used in his updates.
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kursk Front: Russian Pressure and Ukrainian Defence
🎦 00:17-02:32⏩
- Jonathan begins with the Kursk front, noting increased Russian pressure in the west, according to Andrew Perpetua's map.
- Russian advances are indicated by blue lines (current defensive line) and pink pins (previous defensive line), showing territorial gains.
- The "neck of the cauldron" is under threat from the west.
- The town of Sudia, under Russian control, is mentioned in relation to Ukrainian pressure from the east.
- Ukrainians have been more successful in pushing back Russians in the east around Sudia.
- There has been "push and shove" in Chukotka and Konopelka.
- Russians have reportedly retaken Progrepki in the northwest.
- Tim White reports Russia's claim of liberating Progrepki, with video evidence of Russian flags in the village, located 20km north of Shuzhia.
- Ukraine has not commented on the situation in Progrepki.
- The Malaya Lachnia area has been held by Ukrainians for a long time, resisting Russian attempts to cut them off.
- Russians are now pushing Ukrainians back directly in this area, creating a challenging situation for Ukraine in Kursk, although they are still holding on.
Kharkiv Front: Minor Russian Advances near Kupyansk
🎦 02:32-03:13⏩
- No changes reported on the main Kharkiv front.
- Minor changes are observed in the northeastern Kupyansk sector.
- Russians have made small advances across the Oskil River.
- Further south of the Oskil River, according to SREP maps by Canon Jovay, Russians are pushing towards Kupyansk itself.
- Gains are also reported near Ulyansk, on the approach to Kupyansk from the west.
- Overall, changes are described as not huge despite being four days' worth of updates.
Donetsk Front: Intensity of Russian Attacks and Key Areas
🎦 03:13-03:42⏩
- Looking at a graph showing the intensity of Russian attacks, it appears their momentum is waning.
- Despite this, Russians are having some success in certain areas, notably Karakova, Velikonova, and Silke, indicated by "blues" on the map.
- "Blues" are also seen around Turetsk, Chesiv Yar, and Bilo Hrivka.
- Bilo Hrivka is highlighted as a significant challenge.
Bilo Hrivka: Strategic Importance and Russian Pressure
🎦 03:42-05:07⏩
- There are suggestions that if Russia captures Bilo Hrivka, it could lead to larger successes across the region.
- Bilo Hrivka is a "sticking point" hindering Russian progress along the Sverdlovsk-Donetsk River.
- A Russian attempt to flank Bilo Hrivka via Vrchnokomiansk was repelled by Ukrainian forces.
- Worrying signs indicated heavy pressure on Bilo Hrivka.
- Andrew Perpetua notes Russian advances in this area.
- The terrain around Bilo Hrivka is geographically challenging for attackers, featuring hills, steep riverbanks, and trees.
- Russians would face difficulties moving south from the north side of the Siverskyi Donets River and westward due to the hilly terrain.
- However, Russian success in this area would push Ukrainians back significantly.
Discrepancies in Mapping: Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua
🎦 05:07-06:51⏩
- Syriac Maps previously indicated Russian control of the entire chalk quarry area near Bilo Hrivka.
- Syriac Maps now shows a slight Ukrainian pushback, suggesting a "rejig" rather than a Ukrainian counterattack.
- Jonathan believes Syriac Maps may be walking back earlier claims based on Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) information, contrasting with Andrew Perpetua's mapping.
- Russians are still pushing in the area, but the definition of "control" over fields is questioned.
- Control is not always clear-cut, lacking flags or constant presence, possibly involving reconnaissance groups and skirmishes.
- Syriac Maps might interpret any Russian presence as full control, which Jonathan questions.
- The situation is complex and not easily defined by who "controls what".
- There is a significant difference between Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua regarding control in the area south towards the rear.
Bilo Hrivka's Strategic Significance for Luhansk Oblast
🎦 06:51-07:43⏩
- Euromaidan Press reported military experts warning that Russian advances near Bilo Hrivka, the last Ukrainian outpost in Luhansk Oblast, could create a bridgehead for attacks on Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and other key areas.
- Losing Bilo Hrivka is considered losing Luhansk Oblast.
- Bilo Hrivka is seen as the "vital key" to unlocking the wider area, including Siversk, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and other towns.
- Russian control of Bilo Hrivka would effectively mean control of Luhansk Oblast, especially given their struggles in the northern part of the region.
- Holding onto Bilo Hrivka is of significant symbolic and operational importance for Ukraine.
Chasiv Yar: Intense Fighting and Russian Advances on T0504 Highway
🎦 07:43-08:39⏩
- Around Chasiv Yar, Andrew Perpetua indicates Ukrainian pushback in the northern area, possibly a mapping adjustment.
- Russians may have taken some buildings in the centre of Chasiv Yar.
- Worryingly, Russians are advancing along the T0504 highway, both north and south of it, towards Topochki.
- Topochki is a crucial settlement for keeping Russians away from Kostantynivka.
- Stopping Russian advances at Topochki is vital.
- Similar to Bilo Hrivka's importance in the north, the T-0504 highway is key in the south for protecting Kostantynivka and the southern part of the settlement semicircle.
- Key fighting is occurring in both Bilo Hrivka and Chasiv Yar.
Turetsk: Ukrainian Counterattacks and Strategic Importance
🎦 08:39-09:20⏩
- Despite Russian pressure on Bilo Hrivka and Chasiv Yar, Ukrainians are counterattacking in areas outside these locations, particularly in Turetsk.
- Turetsk, while not considered "super important," is argued to be strategically significant in keeping Russians at bay from approaching Kostantynivka from the south.
- Protecting Kostantynivka is important as its fall would threaten major settlements like Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk.
Ukrainian Counteroffensives in Turetsk and Prokrovsk Sectors
🎦 09:20-11:21⏩
- Russians are getting closer to Kostantynivka, increasing artillery strike capabilities.
- However, Ukrainians are consistently counterattacking in Turetsk and areas to its south.
- Pro-Ukrainian source Greyskull reports Ukrainian counterattacks from 23rd-25th, regaining territory in the south, then north, and northeast of Turetsk.
- "Fairly sizable chunks" of Turetsk have been retaken by Ukraine.
- Both Russian and Ukrainian sources report a Ukrainian "break" towards the centre of Turetsk, indicating significant Ukrainian activity.
- Andrew Perpetua's map interpretation shows a fluid and contested situation around Turetsk.
- If Ukrainians cut through Russian positions, Russian forces could be cut off or heavily attacked, creating dynamic developments.
- Greyskull indicates Russian pushback in multiple areas of Turetsk - positive news for Ukraine.
Prokrovsk Sector: Ukrainian Gains including Kotlina
🎦 11:21-12:15⏩
- More "blue pins" indicating Ukrainian gains in the Prokrovsk area.
- Kotlina is now reported to be under Ukrainian control by many channels.
- DeepState map confirms Ukrainian paratroopers from the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade retook Kotlina.
- Russians attempted to establish a foothold towards the Prokrovsk-Dnipro highway but were driven out.
- Ukrainians have also had success in Peschani.
- Greyskull also reports Ukrainian forces occupying the northern part of Kotlina, pushing Russians out and gaining control of the town along the highway.
- Overall positive news from the Prokrovsk sector.
Shift in Momentum and Ukrainian Advances
🎦 12:15-12:40⏩
- The gains in Prokrovsk and Turetsk sectors suggest a change in momentum.
- Previously, "pink and purple pins" indicated Russian advances around this front, including Shevchenko and Vozhodizhenka (highway interdiction), and Retz.
- The current Ukrainian gains represent a positive shift.
Uspenivka and Novovozilivka: Further Ukrainian Pushback
🎦 12:40-13:02⏩
- According to Syriac Maps, Ukrainians have pushed back Russians in Uspenivka as well.
- Significant activity is also noted in Novovozilivka.
- Overall, the appearance of "blue pins" is positive from a Ukrainian perspective.
Srebrenica and Andriivka: Conflicting Reports and Contested Areas
🎦 13:02-14:11⏩
- Further south, west of Srebrenica, in Zaporizhia, reports are mixed.
- Andrew Perpetua initially indicated Ukrainian loss of control in Zaporizhia.
- Syriac Maps now agrees with this assessment.
- However, there are indications that Ukrainians might not have lost control originally or have retaken areas of Andriivka.
- Andriivka is an important town for keeping Russians at bay to the east.
- Possibly also contested in the north of Ulakli.
- Russians may not have robust control in this area; it might be more of a "grey zone" with ongoing fighting.
Karakovo Sector: Dynamic Activity and Conflicting Mapper Data
🎦 14:11-14:47⏩
- Small gains for Syriac Maps near Constantinople, but the situation is unclear.
- Conflicting information from mappers makes it difficult to determine the exact situation.
- Russians are pushing forward in one area but losing ground to the east and north in the Karakovo sector.
- "Pretty dynamic activity" in the Karakovo sector.
- Russians are attempting to advance through Andriivka and further west.
Velikonovosilka: Consistent Russian Gains
🎦 14:47-15:09⏩
- Around Velikonovosilka, mapper reports are consistent: Russians are making "pretty sizable gains".
- Both mappers show Russian advances through fields around Velikonovosilka, extending west and north beyond the town itself.
- This area seems to be where Russia currently has the most momentum.
Pyatikhatky: Minor Russian Pushback
🎦 15:09-15:38⏩
- Minor changes in Pyatikhatky.
- Russians appear to be pushing Ukrainians back in Pyatihaki, east of Cherubyanky.
- Previous reports suggested Ukrainian advances south around Kamiansk, but no recent updates.
Overall Assessment: Russian Culmination and Ukrainian Counterattacks
🎦 15:38-16:46⏩
- Good news for Ukraine in the broader context: Russians are showing signs of culmination and have lost momentum in several areas.
- Russia is still pushing, aiming to gain a commanding position for potential negotiations.
- This push is likely intensified due to possible forced negotiations driven by the Americans.
- Reports indicate 1,000-3,000 North Korean troops, including sappers and machinery operators, have been brought into the Kursk region, potentially contributing to Russian successes there.
- This poses a challenge for Ukraine, needing to defend key areas and counterattack while facing North Korean involvement.
Geopolitical Context: Potential for Forced Negotiations and Warring Sides' Perspectives
🎦 16:46-19:12⏩
- The next few weeks will be crucial, against a backdrop of geopolitical activity and potential deals being forced by the Americans.
- Neither Ukraine nor Russia may currently want a deal.
- Ukraine might believe Russia is culminating and that new weaponry and ammunition (for the next six months) could allow them to regain territory.
- Possible Ukrainian attacks into Belgorod or Kursk regions are mentioned.
- Ukraine may see the next six months as critical for shifting the war's tide and resist a ceasefire now.
- Russia, having signed a deal with Belarus and using North Korean troops, may believe they can continue inching forward, especially in the Velika-Novoselka area.
- Despite slower progress in Karakovo, Russia is still gaining territory and wants to avoid being stopped.
- Both nations have reasons to continue fighting rather than seek peace.
- The US is pushing for peace, possibly for political reasons (Trump's Nobel Peace Prize) and economic interests (natural resources), creating a chaotic situation with conflicting motivations.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Report Highlights
🎦 19:12-20:16⏩
- Jonathan transitions to the ISW report, available on his website ATPgeo.com.
- Key points from ISW:
- A Russian milblogger reports acute personnel shortages for Russian forces in the Prokrovsk and Karakova directions, aligning with Ukrainian pushbacks in those areas.
- Head of Ukraine's Centre for Combating Disinformation states Russia is flying drones at lower altitudes to test reinforced antennas and evade Ukrainian electronic warfare.
- Russian FSB is reportedly recruiting former civilian and military officials from pre-trial detention centres for the war, echoing earlier reports.
- No similar Ukrainian recruitment from prisons is mentioned.
Wrap up
🎦 20:16-21:55⏩
- Jonathan concludes with the map update and hopes his analysis was helpful.
- He thanks viewers for watching and their support.
- He promotes the "Dzyga's Paw" fundraiser for thermal drones (Mavic 3T), nearing the £17,500 target.
- Donors are asked to use the "ATP for Triad" code during donation for attribution to the ATP Geopolitics campaign.
- Payment difficulties to Ukrainian banks are mentioned, due to general banking caution, not Ukrainian issues. PayPal is suggested as an easier method.
- Jonathan thanks viewers again and signs off.
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