Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: A Dam Whodunnit, Chinese Influence, & the Economics of Water
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's absolutely clear that the Russians did it. Now, someone asked me, what's the Chinese reaction to this? Such a good question."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, mentioning he's had a long day and is having a drink. He shares a humorous video of a man on a bicycle near a rocket launch.
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Progozhin's Popularity and Influence in Russia
Despite Progozhin's frequent media appearances, many Russians are unaware of who he is when asked in street interviews. State media has banned reporting on him and Wagner PMC. His media persona is not reaching a wide Russian audience at this point.
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Margarita Simonyan's Statements on Russian State TV
Margarita Simonyan, a prominent figure on Russian state TV, made statements suggesting it would be good to "freeze" the conflict, hold referendums in disputed territories, and Russia doesn't need territories that don't want to be with them. Jonathan sees this as a highly significant shift in Kremlin positioning, floating the idea that Putin may find it reasonable to freeze the conflict and hold referendums. Simonyan appears to be acting as a spokesperson for Putin to test public reaction to this idea.
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Who Destroyed the Kakhovka Dam?
Jonathan examines evidence to determine who likely destroyed the Kakhovka dam. Key points:
- The dam's construction makes a "cascading" collapse from previous damage unlikely
- 20 tons of explosives were needed to destroy a similar dam in 1941, so claims of a missile strike causing the collapse are implausible
- Russia controlled the dam and kept water levels at maximum prior to the collapse
- Seismic data and satellite imagery detected a large explosion at the time of the collapse
- An intercepted phone call allegedly has Russians admitting to the attack and causing more damage than intended
Using an analogy of putting "jelly beans" of evidence into jars representing different hypotheses, Jonathan concludes the evidence overwhelmingly points to Russia intentionally destroying the dam.
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China's Reaction and Agricultural Interests in Ukraine
China expressed "serious concern" over the dam's destruction and called on all parties to abide by international humanitarian law. Jonathan interprets this as a veiled warning to Russia. He theorizes China is upset because they own significant agricultural land in Ukraine (some estimates up to 9% of Ukraine's total land). The dam's destruction will impact food production in Ukraine, which goes against China's interests in securing food for its large population. China has been buying up agricultural land worldwide to address having 21% of the global population but only 7% of arable land.
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Economic, Humanitarian and Ecological Impacts
The dam's destruction at a time of near-record high water levels is forecast to have severe long-term impacts across southern Ukraine and Crimea:
- Flooding is worse on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro
- The reservoir fed a network of canals irrigating 12,000 km2 of farmland - these will run dry as water levels drop
- 400,000 people have lost drinking water supply
- 150-200,000 jobs may be lost in the Kherson region alone; up to 420,000 agricultural jobs are at risk
- Crimea will be severely impacted as irrigation infrastructure has degraded since 2014
- Massive volumes of water are draining, likely to impact the ecology of the Black Sea
Rebuilding the dam may take 3 years and the reservoir a year to refill, but this depends on peace being restored. Without irrigation, the region may revert to 1930s conditions.
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Spotting Russian Troll Behavior
Jonathan analyzes a comment on his video that exhibits telltale signs of a Russian troll, such as:
- Announcing their identity/location (e.g. "I am English. I live in Bath, Somerset") in their very first comment, to build false credibility
- Making dubious claims of societal problems in their supposed home country
- Arguing against supporting Ukraine with emotional appeals
He notes an uptick in troll activity often coincides with significant events in the war. The trolls seem to be out in force, suggesting "they are panicking" or "trying to control the information space".
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and shares a brief update on his day watching his son play in a football tournament. He signs off with "two little pips" and says he will enjoy the rest of his glass of wine on a lovely evening.
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