Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They were nurtured for two years and all of this just to grind them down in a short period during assaults. The state is catastrophically unable to manage intellectual and human capital even at a minimally effective level."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War Update video for the 20th of October 2024. He mentions that there will be four parts to today's update. This is part 1, which will cover overnight news and other news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses
🎦 00:18-01:26⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, highlighting some significant losses for the Russians, including 1,340 personnel (exceptionally high), 12 tanks (above average), and 39 armoured fighting vehicles (double the average). He notes that these losses likely reflect the ongoing Russian offensives and the challenging weather conditions.
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Capture of Famous Luhansk Separatist
🎦 01:26-02:23⏩
The Ukrainian military has captured Herman Prokopiev, a well-known Luhansk separatist who played a prominent role in the pro-Russian riots of 2014. Prokopiev was involved in removing Ukrainian flags from administrative buildings and threatening pro-Ukrainian activists. He could be a valuable asset for potential prisoner exchanges.
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Russian Attempt to Seize Oskil River Crossing
🎦 02:24-03:45⏩
Jonathan reports on a concerning development on the north-eastern front line near Pizchani. Russian forces attempted to cross the Oskil River and establish a bridgehead but were repulsed by the Ukrainian 77th Air Assault Brigade. The Russians suffered heavy losses, including 8 infantry fighting vehicles and 3 tanks destroyed. Although repelled, the attack highlights Russia's ability to make gains through sheer numbers of troops and equipment.
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Russian Tank Crew Losses Near Sudzha
🎦 03:45-04:25⏩
Citing a video shared by Tim White, Jonathan reveals that a Russian tank crew from the 155th Brigade was killed near Sudzha, likely in the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region where Ukrainians have been making gains. The incident underscores the heavy losses being sustained by Russian forces, even in areas they have been actively attacking.
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Analysis of Rocket Used Against Russian Motorcyclists
🎦 04:30-07:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the type of rocket used in a video showing a Ukrainian strike on Russian motorcyclists. Citing information from Andrew Perpetua, he suggests it may have been an M26 unguided cluster munition rocket, which is less expensive than guided rockets like GMLRS. He explains the differences between various MLRS systems and expresses dismay at Germany's past decision to destroy their stockpile of 500,000 M26 rockets, imagining the impact they could have had for Ukraine.
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Guerrilla Sabotage in Kherson Region
🎦 07:13-07:52⏩
Ukrainian guerrillas continue to conduct acts of sabotage in the occupied Kherson region. The Atash movement reported destroying a relay cabinet near Novooleskivka, disrupting Russian logistics and slowing down troop movements in southern Ukraine.
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Fire at Furniture Factory in Vladimir Region
🎦 07:52-08:08⏩
Another factory fire has been reported in Russia's Vladimir region. The target appears to be a furniture factory. Jonathan notes that these incidents continue to occur regularly.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 08:08-09:30⏩
Ukraine faced a significant wave of drone attacks overnight, with 49 Shahed drones launched. While Ukrainian air defences and electronic warfare intercepted most of them, a few may have reached their targets. Two Iskander-M ballistic missiles were also fired, with none intercepted. These attacks highlight the ongoing threat posed by Russian long-range strikes.
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Russian Attempt to Bomb Shopping Centre
🎦 09:30-09:45⏩
Jonathan highlights a particularly reprehensible Russian action: an attempt to bomb a crowded shopping centre on a Saturday evening. Although the two 500kg guided bombs missed their target, they caused damage to nearby buildings and a parking lot.
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Russian Attack on Kryvyi Rih
🎦 09:45-09:47⏩
Kryvyi Rih was hit by an attack, resulting in at least 17 injuries and damage to various buildings, including a hotel, shop, administrative building, educational institution, and seven apartment buildings. It is unclear whether the damage was caused by drones or missiles.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia
🎦 09:47-10:35⏩
Reports are emerging of multiple explosions in Russia, suggesting a large-scale drone attack by Ukraine. Tim White reported explosions and active air defences in Kursk and Orel regions. Videos purportedly show wreckage from downed drones in Orel. Russia's Ministry of Defence later claimed that 110 drones were shot down overnight across seven regions.
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Ukrainian Drone Strike on Explosives Factory in Dzerzhinsk
🎦 10:35-12:25⏩
Ukrainian drones targeted the YM Sverdlov factory in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia. This plant is a major producer of explosives and ammunition for the Russian military. The attack may have significantly disrupted Russia's military industrial complex, as the plant produces essential components for various types of weapons and explosives.
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Ukrainian Drone Strike on Military Base Housing North Korean Soldiers in Orel
🎦 12:25-13:18⏩
In addition to the Dzerzhinsk attack, Ukrainian drones also struck an explosives plant in the Orel region. Igor Sushko reported that a military base in Orel housing North Korean soldiers was also hit. This may have been a targeted message to North Korea regarding its involvement in supporting Russia.
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Strikes on Kinburn Spit
🎦 13:18-14:05⏩
Over recent days, there have been strikes on the Kinburn Spit, a strategically important area that controls access to the Dnipro River delta. Footage shows the use of cluster munitions in these attacks. There have been rumours of Ukrainian special forces activity in the area, attempting to land on both the Kinburn and Tendrushka spits, but these operations have had limited success.
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Ukrainian Helicopter Shoots Down Shahed Drone
🎦 14:11-16:09⏩
Footage has emerged of a Ukrainian helicopter engaging in air defence, successfully shooting down a Shahed drone. Jonathan comments on the risks associated with shooting down drones over populated areas due to the potential for falling debris.
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North Korean Special Operations Forces Deployed to Russia
🎦 16:14-18:03⏩
According to the Daily Telegraph, North Korea has deployed a secretive special operations unit to Russia. This elite force is highly trained and equipped, and their presence could increase attrition for Ukrainian forces. Reports suggest that up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers, including a special forces contingent of 1,500, have already been deployed to Vladivostok. South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the situation.
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Russian Drone Operators Sent to Front Line Assaults
🎦 18:04-20:02⏩
There are reports that Russia is sending trained drone operators into front-line infantry assaults, a move considered desperate and wasteful. War Translated shared a post from a Russian military correspondent lamenting this practice, describing it as a catastrophic mismanagement of human capital. While the correspondent acknowledges improvements in the overall level of the Russian army, including command and personnel quality, the deployment of specialists into meat grinder assaults is a concerning development.
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Wrap up
🎦 20:02-22:21⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for their support, particularly for the NAFO truck campaign, which has raised a significant amount of money. He mentions his plans for future content, including a live stream with a cult expert on his A Tippling Philosopher channel to discuss the US elections and the nature of the MAGA movement.
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