Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Sit with me and watch civilians bleeding out in Seredove because of Russian artillery strikes hitting their house and tell me more about how you're trying. Our strongly worded letters are the shield Europe needs against racist psychotic murderers."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update for the 24th of October 2024.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff data - Russian losses
🎦 00:16-03:05⏩
- Russian losses dipped below 1,300 for the first time in a while, down to 1,240. Despite the slight decrease, it is still a significant number.
- Jonathan speculates that the marginal slowdown in Russian vehicle losses may be because they've been on the offensive and need to take a breather to resupply/repair.
- Jonathan highlights the logistical challenges of Russia's constant attacks and the high attrition rate of equipment and personnel.
Andrew Perpetua - Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 03:05-06:00⏩
- Overview of Ukrainian equipment losses based on Andrew Perpetua's data, noting a loss of communication equipment, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles.
- The loss of a Bradley and a CV9040 (Swedish infantry fighting vehicle, considered one of the best) are described as significant losses.
- Jonathan emphasises the need for a consistent supply of equipment to replace these losses.
- There is also a mention of destroyed and abandoned APCs, including M113s, Humvees, and Strikers.
Andrew Perpetua - Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 06:00-07:26⏩
- Based on Andrew Perpetua's list, the Russians have lost an Tor-M1 (Australia-10) - short range air defence system, engineering vehicles, a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system, artillery, a number of tanks (T-80s and T-72s), and a large number of infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1s, BMP-2s, BMP-3s, and BTRs).
- Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua removed trucks and civilian vehicles from the list as he had over 450 pieces of equipment on it and could only fit 201 on the screenshot.
- Jonathan highlights that the Russians are making territorial gains, but at a high cost.
Novohorodivka - Cost of Russian advance
🎦 07:26-09:49⏩
- Focuses on Novohorodivka (north of Sievierodonetsk) in the Bakhmut sector, a town captured by the Russians.
- Ukrainians claim to have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians during their advance, with estimates close to 300 confirmed dead and potentially more unconfirmed casualties.
- Jonathan points out that if the Russians gained only 800 meters for a potential loss of 1,000 soldiers (or more), it highlights the significant cost of their territorial gains.
- Jonathan observes that this high cost approach seems to be part of Russia's military DNA, as seen in previous conflicts.
Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defence Hanna Maliar - Artillery Shell Ratio
🎦 09:49-14:26⏩
- Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Hanna Maliar, reports that the artillery shell ratio between Ukraine and Russia is now around 1:2, a huge improvement from 1:7 at the start of the year.
- This indicates a significant increase in Ukrainian artillery ammunition production/procurement and possible struggles on the Russian side.
- The shift from a 1:7 ratio (or worse) to 1:2 is a major development, suggesting a potential artillery advantage for Ukraine.
- This improvement also highlights the higher precision and accuracy of Ukrainian howitzers compared to the older Russian models.
- Jonathan points out that at the beginning of the conflict, Russia was reportedly firing 40-60,000 shells per day, while Ukraine's capacity was much lower. Now, the Russians are relying on North Korean ammunition and the ratio has shifted dramatically, reflecting a positive change for Ukraine.
Russian Tank Depletion
🎦 14:26-14:55⏩
- According to reports, the remaining tanks in Russian storage are mostly older models (T-62s, T-64s, and older T-72s).
- Since the start of the full-scale war, the Russians have withdrawn almost all their T-80s from storage and lost close to 1,000 of them in combat.
- Jonathan raises the possibility of Russia ramping up T-80 production, but acknowledges uncertainty about the latest developments in this area.
Andrew Perpetua - Drone Evolution in the War
🎦 14:55-22:34⏩
- Andrew Perpetua observes significant changes and trends in drone use during the war.
- Drone Evolution:
- Dive bomber drones have shifted from high-speed attacks to slower, more deliberate approaches, likely due to the low risk of being shot down.
- FPV (first-person view) drone experiments have included oversized bombs and various types of night vision, with Ukrainians now potentially having better night vision capabilities than the Russians.
- Specialised FPV drones have emerged, including incendiary and interceptor drones.
- Drone Tactics:
- Russians tend to use higher speeds and dive from a distance, potentially sacrificing accuracy for surprise.
- Ukrainians are more deliberate, often circling targets before attacking, reminiscent of predator behaviour in the wild.
- Warhead Development:
- Warheads have become more lethal, with increased shrapnel, velocity, and blast radius.
- Bombs have also increased in size, making drone drops more deadly and efficient.
- Drone Drop vs FPV:
- The ratio of FPV drones to drone drops seems to be favouring drone drops, which are more efficient and reusable if the target is stationary.
- Specialised Bombers:
- Heavy bombers and other specialist drones, like the Queen Hornet, have become prominent for specific roles.
- Overall Trends:
- Night vision, heavy bombers, and larger, more lethal bombs are increasingly common, while drone tactics may have become less creative overall.
Andrew Perpetua - Drone Carpet Bombing?
🎦 22:34-23:36⏩
- Andrew Perpetua answers a question about the potential for "drone carpet bombing" in the future.
- He believes its use is limited and that air-bursting drones are more effective because they create a wider blast radius compared to bombs detonating on impact.
Russian Orion Drone Shot Down
🎦 23:36-24:10⏩
- A Russian Orion drone was shot down in the Kursk region of Russia.
- It's described as dangerous due to its ability to carry air-to-ground weapons, similar to the Bayraktar TB2 or MQ Reaper drones.
- This is reportedly the seventh Orion shot down since the start of the full-scale invasion.
- It's a large drone, primarily used for reconnaissance but also capable of carrying munitions.
Molotov Cocktail Attack on United Russia Party Office
🎦 24:10-24:32⏩
- Two unidentified women threw Molotov cocktails at a United Russia party office in Perm, Russia, in an act of sabotage.
- Jonathan expresses support for such actions, viewing them as a sign of growing discontent within Russia.
Ukrainian Air Defence Success - Drones and Missiles
🎦 24:32-25:31⏩
- Ukrainian air defence successfully intercepted a significant number of drones and missiles.
- Out of 50 drones sent into Ukraine, 40 were shot down and 7 were disabled by electronic warfare.
- Two drones returned to Russia, and one was still in Ukrainian airspace at the time of reporting.
- Of the four Kh-22 and Kh-59 missiles launched (two of each), it's reported that three were likely stopped by electronic warfare.
- Jonathan notes the possibility that electronic warfare interference may not always be reported, even when successful in diverting missiles.
- There were no reports of damage from drones or missiles in Ukraine or Russia overnight.
North Korean Troops Disguised as Buryats
🎦 25:39-26:47⏩
- Both Ukrainian and South Korean officials have reported that North Korean troops have been given false documents identifying them as Buryats, an indigenous group from Siberia, in order to give Russia (Moscow) and North Korea (Pyongyang) plausible deniability for their involvement in the conflict.
- Jonathan suggests capturing and interrogating these soldiers to expose their true nationality.
Andrew Perpetua - OSINT, News Pipelines and Plagiarism
🎦 26:47-31:45⏩
- Andrew Perpetua highlights the news pipeline in the OSINT (open-source intelligence) world.
- OSINT researchers, like Turchynov and Perpetua himself, do the groundwork of geolocating and verifying information.
- Organisations like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) then cite and reference these OSINT sources in their reports.
- Mid-tier news organisations subsequently quote ISW, often without crediting the original OSINT researchers.
- Large news organisations may then plagiarise the mid-tier outlets, presenting the information as their own work.
- Jonathan expresses his view that mainstream media often lacks proper referencing and suggests a need for greater transparency and accountability in citing sources, particularly when those sources are public entities.
Andrew Perpetua - Mainstream Media Apathy and Lack of Action
🎦 31:45-34:47⏩
- Andrew Perpetua criticises the inaction of politicians and mainstream media in the face of the atrocities happening in Ukraine.
- He argues that if they witnessed the suffering firsthand, they would be more proactive in their response.
- Perpetua challenges those who downplay the severity of the situation or promote a "both sides" narrative to confront the reality of the war crimes committed by Russia.
- He emphasises the need to acknowledge the clear moral distinction between the aggressor and the victim in this conflict.
- Jonathan expands on Perpetua's point, drawing parallels with politicians and commentators who offer pro-Russian or appeasement narratives, urging them to educate themselves about the history and realities of the conflict before forming their opinions.
- He underscores the importance of relying on expert analysis and firsthand accounts to develop an informed and morally sound perspective on the war.
Zelensky's "Make Russia Small Again" T-shirt
🎦 34:47-36:19⏩
- Zelensky wore a t-shirt with the slogan "Make Russia Small Again" during his daily address.
- The t-shirt features a map of the historical Principality of Moscow from 1462, highlighting its smaller size compared to the current Russian Federation.
- Jonathan praises the t-shirt and its message, which counters Russian propaganda that attempts to justify the invasion of Ukraine based on historical claims.
- He criticises the "essentialist" view that Russia has an inherent right to Ukrainian territory, pointing out the selective use of history to support this narrative.
Russian Troop Concentration in the South
🎦 36:19-37:04⏩
- It's estimated that up to 200,000 Russian troops are concentrated in the south of Ukraine, covering the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Crimea regions.
- Jonathan notes that this number likely includes support personnel in addition to combat troops.
- The report suggests a potential Russian offensive from Zaporizhzhia towards the southern front lines.
Execution of Captured Ukrainian Soldiers
🎦 37:04-37:27⏩
- Russians have reportedly killed four captured National Guard of Ukraine soldiers in Sievierodonetsk, Donetsk region.
- According to the Prosecutor General's office, the Russians interrogated the wounded and unarmed soldiers before executing them.
- Jonathan points out this is a recurring pattern of Russian war crimes.
Ukrainian Cyber Attacks on Russian Companies
🎦 37:27-38:06⏩
- Ukrainian military cyber specialists have carried out attacks on 13 Russian companies that support the war against Ukraine.
- These companies included manufacturers of personal protective equipment and a foundation promoting the "Russian World" ideology, as well as sites involved in financing Russia's war efforts.
- The data obtained during the cyberattacks has been shared with the relevant Ukrainian authorities.
Ukraine Planning New Cyber Forces Branch
🎦 38:06-38:33⏩
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning to establish a dedicated "Cyber Forces" branch, recognising the importance of cyber warfare in the modern context.
- Jonathan highlights the significance of cyber warfare as a key aspect of modern conflicts, including the ongoing war in Ukraine.
- He believes that cyber attacks can significantly disrupt Russia's ability to wage war.
Jonathan's Efforts to Improve Sourcing and Provenance
🎦 38:33-39:16⏩
- Jonathan discusses his efforts to improve the sourcing and provenance of information in his videos.
- He aims to include links to sources, particularly in his "Hits and Losses" videos.
- He acknowledges the limitations on the number of links he can include in YouTube video descriptions but remains committed to improving transparency and allowing viewers to verify the information he presents.
Wrap Up
🎦 39:16-40:00⏩
- Jonathan thanks his audience and encourages them to support the NAFO fundraiser for medical vans for Ukraine.
- The fundraiser is progressing well, with the first truck almost fully funded and ready to be sent to Ukraine potentially in November.
- Jonathan expresses his gratitude for the donations and reiterates the importance of every contribution.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
25:39: The transcript has "says christopher miller from financialrainian". I assume this should be "says Christopher Miller from the Financial Times". Please clarify.
37:39: The name of the Russian company manufacturing personal protective equipment is partially obscured by Cyrillic characters. If possible, could you provide the full and correct name of the company?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
TASK 1: Title, Date, and Part:
Identify the date part in the title (20241024a).
Extract the title by removing the date part.
Extract the date and reformat it to DD/MM/YYYY.
Extract the part (a).
TASK 2: Topic Titles:
Identify the different topics discussed in the video by carefully analysing the transcript.
Create concise and specific topic titles that capture the essence of each segment. Ensure granularity by separating topics by country/region/news item where possible (e.g. instead of "Military Aid", create separate titles for aid announcements from different countries).
Number the topics sequentially (starting with 1) and include the ID in the XML tag.
Use "Hello Team" for the introduction and "Wrap Up" for the closing remarks.
TASK 3: Topic Timeframes:
For each topic, find the start and end timestamps in the transcript.
Ensure the timestamps match the topic discussed.
Use the format MM:SS or HH:MM:SS.
If a topic is discussed in multiple segments, list all timeframes separated by commas.
TASK 4: Topic Summaries:
Write a detailed summary for each topic, using the transcript as a guide.
Include context, key points, and any opinions or insights offered by Jonathan.
Use bullet points or numbered lists where appropriate.
Credit sources mentioned by Jonathan.
Ensure accuracy and clarity.
Use British English (EN-GB).
TASK 5: Quote:
Choose a significant, meaningful, or insightful quote from the video.
Ensure the quote is concise and makes sense out of context.
Correct any errors in the quote (e.g., spelling, punctuation).
TASK 6: Queries:
Note down any aspects of the transcript or tasks that I did not understand.
Be specific and detailed in my queries.
Considerations:
Accuracy: Ensure that the summaries and information are accurate and reflect the content of the transcript.
Clarity: Write in a clear and concise manner, making it easy for viewers to understand the key points of each topic.
Context: Provide sufficient context for each topic so that viewers can grasp the significance of the information.
Jonathan's Style: Capture Jonathan's insights, analysis, and personality in the summaries. This includes his opinions, humour, and passion for the topic.
Respectful Language: Use Ukrainian spellings for place names and maintain a respectful tone throughout the summaries.