Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitics News

"I don't like Trump as a human being, but I certainly don't like his political intentions, and um, you know, the direction of travel that he would take the US in is incredibly worrying."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:26⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the third part of his 13 July 2024 Ukraine War News Update, "BUMPER NEWS". He promises a lot of information, including coverage of the NATO summit and US electoral shenanigans.

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YouTube Slowed Down in Russia

🎦 00:26-01:08⏩

Jonathan shares news that YouTube will be slowed down in Russia from 13 July 2024, with an official reason of technical problems on Google's equipment. However, he believes this is a step towards a full block in September 2024 and part of a broader Russian strategy of information control and historical revisionism. He cites the creation of a Russian Wikipedia alternative, "Rewiki", as an example.

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EU Commission Charges Twitter/X

🎦 03:06-03:42⏩

Jonathan reports that the EU Commission has charged Twitter/X for failing to comply with EU social media regulations, potentially facing a multi-million euro fine. He highlights Twitter's pro-Russian stance and its algorithm that disfavors Ukraine news, stating it requires significant effort to get pro-Ukraine content seen above pro-Russian bot and troll activity.

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Elon Musk's Political Activities

🎦 03:42-06:48⏩

Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's political activities, highlighting his alleged role as a "useful idiot" for the Kremlin. He cites an OSINT analyst's comment that Musk is having a temper tantrum regarding the EU Commission's charge against Twitter and notes that Musk has donated to a super PAC working to elect Donald Trump to the White House. Jonathan further discusses Musk's reported role as a business advisor to Trump and the potential for him to benefit financially and legally from a Trump presidency.

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Kremlin Sabotage Activities in Germany

🎦 07:47-08:49⏩

Jonathan discusses a Washington Post report alleging that Kremlin political strategists studied the Facebook profiles of 1,200 workers at two major German plants, Arubus and BASF in Ludwigshafen, to identify individuals who could be manipulated into stirring unrest. He emphasizes the extent of Russian involvement in international politics, including election meddling and national security threats.

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Russian Government's Influence on US Election

🎦 08:50-09:09⏩

Jonathan mentions that the Russian government has been openly trying to influence the US election for weeks, but he has not yet discussed this in his videos, promising to cover it later. He adds that this is a key topic he will be discussing further.

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Orban and Maloney's Interaction at NATO Summit

🎦 09:09-09:53⏩

Jonathan shares a photo of Viktor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister, rolling his eyes at an imaginary watch while waiting for Joe Biden during a scripted speech at the NATO summit. He praises the photo, calling it "brilliant" and stating it encapsulates Orban's character and the photographer's accurate appraisal of him.

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Lithuanian Foreign Minister's Perspective on NATO Summit

🎦 09:53-11:19⏩

Jonathan presents the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis's thoughts on the NATO summit. Landsbergis highlights the summit's strong message to the US about the respect it is receiving from its allies. Jonathan agrees, adding that the US deserves respect for its pro-NATO stance. He further discusses the summit's lack of significant strategic breakthroughs and how Putin used the summit to show his sense of impunity by attacking civilian targets in Ukraine.

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Ukraine's Insecurity and Missed Opportunity at NATO Summit

🎦 11:19-12:44⏩

Jonathan continues to discuss Landsbergis's perspective on the NATO summit, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing insecurity and the missed opportunity to authorize deeper strikes against military targets in Russia. He argues that such a decision would have benefited not only Ukraine and the US but the entire alliance.

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Defining the Threshold for Article 5

🎦 12:44-14:21⏩

Jonathan delves into the debate about the threshold for triggering Article 5 of the NATO treaty. He questions the extent to which hybrid warfare activities, particularly cyberattacks, could trigger the clause. He highlights the complexities of attributing cyberattacks and the difficulty in establishing "beyond reasonable doubt" in a digital context.

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World War III Thesis

🎦 14:21-14:53⏩

Jonathan reaffirms his thesis that the current conflict is World War III, citing the various forms of warfare being waged: cyber, information, economic, financial, political, and conventional military. He argues that the only form of warfare not being employed is the direct deployment of frontline troops.

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Putin Escalates When Ukraine is Not Sufficiently Supported

🎦 14:53-15:12⏩

Jonathan shares Landsbergis's observation that Putin escalates his aggression when Ukraine's support is insufficient. He agrees with this assessment, adding that Putin exploits weakness and vulnerability.

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Zelensky's UK Visit

🎦 15:12-15:25⏩

Jonathan reports that Zelensky is expected to visit the UK next week to address European leaders in Blenheim Palace. The meeting aims to discuss Ukraine's security, European security, and democracy. Jonathan hopes that something positive will come out of this meeting.

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India Negotiating Long-Term Oil Imports from Russia

🎦 15:25-15:46⏩

Jonathan discusses India's negotiation with Russia for long-term oil imports. He cites Reuters as the source for this information, adding that the final terms of the deal are yet to be agreed upon.

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Putin's Body Double Conspiracy

🎦 15:46-17:32⏩

Jonathan dives into the conspiracy theories surrounding Putin's appearance, specifically the question of body doubles. He notes inconsistencies in Putin's appearance over time, including different ear shapes, lip sizes, and eye shapes. However, he acknowledges that his gait appears to be consistent across different periods.

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Ukrainian Men Entering Moldova Illegally

🎦 17:32-17:51⏩

Jonathan states that 23,500 Ukrainian men have entered Moldova illegally since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. He highlights the significant number of men involved, speculating that it could constitute several brigades.

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Finland's Restrictive Border Law

🎦 17:51-18:54⏩

Jonathan discusses Finland's parliament's approval of a highly controversial border law, allowing border guards to reject asylum seekers on the spot. He acknowledges different perspectives on this law, with some advocating for compassion towards asylum seekers and others, like the Finns, Poles, and Baltics, believing that Russia is sending migrants to create social cohesion issues.

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Weaponization of Migration Against Poland

🎦 18:54-20:15⏩

Jonathan shares a claim that Russia is weaponizing migration against Poland, citing Jane Keefe's statement that Russia is "pouring African immigrants against the Polish border." He acknowledges the potential for this to be true but also highlights that border issues between Poland and Belarus have decreased since a security zone was established.

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Australian Soldier and Husband Arrested for Spying for Russia

🎦 20:15-20:47⏩

Jonathan reports that an Australian soldier and her husband have been arrested and charged with spying for Russia. He notes the widespread problem of Russian infiltration across various countries, including recent incidents of sabotage and spying in the UK.

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French Left's Support for Ukraine

🎦 20:47-22:22⏩

Jonathan analyzes the French left's stance on the Ukraine war. He highlights the support of the left coalition, including social democrats, greens, and LFI, for Ukraine and the potential for this to influence the formation of the government following the recent elections. He mentions the potential for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from the LFI, to break away from the coalition if he doesn't agree with the support for Ukraine. Jonathan also notes that Emmanuel Macron, the president, has made concessions and is likely to continue supporting Ukraine, particularly in light of his reserved domain in defense and foreign policy.

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French Government's Stronger Commitment to Ukraine

🎦 22:22-23:26⏩

Jonathan discusses the possibility of a stronger French commitment to Ukraine, citing recent announcements of increased support, including authorizing strikes in Russia with French weapons and supplying Mirage 2000s. He highlights the importance of observing the formation of the French government and its potential impact on Ukraine support.

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Russian Economy at a Crossroads

🎦 23:26-27:56⏩

Jonathan delves into the state of the Russian economy. He discusses the impact of Western sanctions, including restricted access to global markets, technology, and financial systems. Jonathan notes the reliance of the Russian economy on oil and gas exports, the ruble devaluation, and the challenges of diversifying the economy. He highlights the government's efforts to promote agriculture, technology, and manufacturing, as well as the potential of the tech sector, particularly in cybersecurity. However, he stresses the difficulties of relying solely on Asia, particularly China, for tech support.

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NATO Summit Thoughts from Max Bergman

🎦 27:56-31:53⏩

Jonathan shares Max Bergman's, director of Eurasia at CSIS, thoughts on the NATO summit. Bergman calls it a "drama-less summit" in terms of substance. Jonathan agrees, adding that the summit lacked any major strategic breakthroughs. He discusses the summit's deliverables, including increased coordination of Ukraine aid, a focus on regional plan implementation, and increased defense production. Jonathan criticizes the notion of a transatlantic defense industrial base, advocating for a fully integrated European base instead. He also raises the point that increased US retreat from NATO could lead to a decrease in European reliance on the American military industrial base. He criticizes the US's role in hindering EU defense integration over the past 25 years, emphasizing the importance of a strong European defense for a successful European integration project.

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European Allies Ready to Curb China Investments

🎦 31:53-37:07⏩

Jonathan discusses Biden's statement that European NATO countries are ready to curb their investments in China over the country's support for Russia. He notes China's subsequent rebuttal, stating that they are not backing Russia and object to being targeted by NATO. Jonathan highlights the potential for growing tension between NATO and China.

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Biden's Stance on Putin and the War

🎦 37:07-37:44⏩

Jonathan reports on Biden's statement that he has no reason to speak to Putin unless he changes his behavior. He shares a snippet of Biden's speech where he criticizes Putin's lack of success in the war, highlighting the high number of Russian casualties and the significant emigration of skilled workers from Russia.

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Trump's Shadow over NATO

🎦 37:44-41:55⏩

Jonathan emphasizes the significant concern among NATO members about a potential Trump presidency and its impact on the alliance. He shares an anecdote about a NATO ambassador's inability to identify any positive outcomes from a Trump victory. He discusses Trump's conflicting messages about his stance on NATO, including his statements about potentially withdrawing from the alliance and his national security team's assurance that he would remain committed. Jonathan also explores the potential for a Trump presidency to undermine NATO's finances and effectiveness, citing a Senate move by Marco Rubio to make it difficult for any US president to withdraw from NATO.

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NATO's Future Without the United States

🎦 41:55-45:26⏩

Jonathan poses the question of whether NATO could function without the United States. He argues that it is unlikely, highlighting the dominance of the US in terms of defense capabilities. He cites a European diplomat's statement that "America first means Europe last," and acknowledges that Trump's antipathy towards Europe could potentially force European countries to take their own defense more seriously, but ultimately, Europe could not replace America's security umbrella.

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The Silver Lining of a Trump Presidency

🎦 45:26-46:37⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential silver lining of a Trump presidency, arguing that it could force European countries to take their own defense more seriously and coordinate more closely. He mentions Poland's high defense spending and the UK's commitment to increasing its defense budget, but emphasizes the lack of resources to replace the US's massive defense capabilities.

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Trump's Flattery and Alexander Stubb's Interview on Fox News

🎦 46:37-47:02⏩

Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of flattery in dealing with Trump and how it can be used to leverage his ego. He cites the example of Alexander Stubb's interview on Fox News, where he praises Trump for pushing NATO members to increase their defense spending while also criticizing the division and polarization of society, a tactic that successfully flattered Trump and appeased the Fox News anchor.

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Trump's Plans for Ukraine

🎦 47:02-49:21⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's claims of having a plan to end the war in Ukraine quickly but without any details. He highlights Trump's previous statement that he would not provide any financial or military aid to Ukraine and that this would end the war, implying that he would allow Russia to destroy Ukraine. Jonathan emphasizes that this is a significant concern, especially in light of Orban's alignment with Trump and his own isolationist stance.

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EU Companies Skipping Ministerial Meetings

🎦 49:21-49:54⏩

Jonathan reports that six EU companies have skipped ministerial meetings in protest of Hungary's Russian outreach. This highlights the growing dissent within the EU over Hungary's actions. He also mentions that six member states have announced a boycott of ministerial meetings during Hungary's presidency due to Orban's meeting with Putin.

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Russian Government's Whole of Government Effort to Influence US Election

🎦 49:54-51:06⏩

Jonathan discusses the Russian government's whole of government effort to influence the outcome of the US presidential election and its favoritism towards Donald Trump. He cites a Wall Street Journal article reporting on this effort and highlights the open support for Trump on Russian state TV, where he is often referred to as "our man." He criticizes the double standards in the response to this information, suggesting that those who support Trump should consider whether they are aligned with a dictator and an autocrat.

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Trump's Anti-China Rhetoric

🎦 51:06-52:06⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's anti-China rhetoric as performative, arguing that he will always prioritize China over Taiwan. He highlights Trump's financial interests in China and the hypocrisy of his supporters arguing that Ukraine should be abandoned to confront China when Trump has no intention of confronting China. He cites Adam Kinzinger's experience of Trump asking him to do President Xi a favor and remove sanctions against ZTE.

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Taiwan Excluded from Republican National Committee's Platform

🎦 52:06-52:50⏩

Jonathan highlights Taiwan's exclusion from the Republican National Committee's party platform for the first time since 1980. He compares this to the 2016 platform, which described Taiwan as a loyal friend and pledged to help it defend itself. Jonathan notes that Taiwan's diplomatic outpost in Washington made significant efforts to have it included in the platform. He expresses his concern about Trump's actions and political intentions, particularly the direction he would take the US.

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Trump's Running Mate

🎦 52:50-55:53⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential running mates for Trump, focusing on J.D. Vance, Doug Bergen, and Marco Rubio. He believes Vance is the most likely choice and criticizes his pro-Kremlin stance and his repeated use of Russian propaganda. Jonathan highlights Vance's anti-Ukraine sentiments and the detrimental impact his potential vice presidency could have on Ukraine's support. He contrasts Vance's ideology with Rubio's more moderate Republicanism and argues that Rubio would be a better strategic choice. He also discusses the concerns surrounding Trump's team and their pro-Russian leanings.

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Biden's Decision to Run for Re-Election

🎦 55:53-58:42⏩

Jonathan discusses Biden's decision to run for re-election. He shares a quote from Jake Tapper, who states that a long-term Biden advisor believes that Biden's inner circle has not served him well and has contributed to a "perfect storm of an echo chamber." Jonathan also mentions that Biden's family is pushing for him to stay in the race, potentially due to a court case he faces, and that his team is desperate to keep their jobs, motivating them to misinform him. He contrasts Biden with Kamala Harris, who he believes would be a better option for president, and notes that Harris has recently been putting on strong performances and gaining better polling numbers.

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Wrap up

🎦 58:42-58:42⏩

Jonathan ends the video with a call to action, encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses his gratitude for their continued support and hopes to speak to them soon.

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