Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
“If these two claims are true, then the Ukrainians are in a bit of trouble because their defensive line and their natural barrier there has been broken.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update. He reminds viewers to check out the key on the map if they are unsure what the lines mean. Jonathan thanks JR for the maps, acknowledging how busy his days are and expresses his appreciation for his help.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis: No changes on the line
🎦 00:27-00:39⏩
Jonathan reports that there are no changes to report on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis, noting that this is good news.
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Terny-Torske salient: Costly Russian attacks fail to make gains
🎦 00:39-01:25⏩
Jonathan observes that there have been no changes in the Terny-Torske salient, despite numerous reports of costly Russian attacks. He cites geolocated footage from the ISW showing Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian attack near Terny. Jonathan reports that the ISW assesses that the Russians are prioritising the Lyman direction and may increase the tempo of their offensive operations there. He reminds viewers that Lyman was operationally encircled by Russian forces before being liberated by Ukrainian forces during the Kharkiv counteroffensive last autumn.
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Lyman: Russian forces increase use of glide bombs, target Oskil River crossings
🎦 01:25-04:19⏩
Jonathan highlights the increased use of glide bombs by Russian forces in the Lyman area, citing reports of a strike on a Ukrainian command post in Barova. He notes that this area was the target of a Russian offensive last year when they made gains around Novoyehorivka and Nadiaivka. Jonathan expresses surprise at the difference between the maps produced by Surat Maps and pro-Ukrainian sources. He reports that Russian forces have also been targeting bridges across the Oskil River near Kupyansk, as they did last year in an unsuccessful attempt to cut off Ukrainian logistics. Jonathan speculates that this might just be an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian efforts in the area, rather than a prelude to a renewed offensive.
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Spirna: Ukrainians recapture filtration plant
🎦 04:19-06:16⏩
Jonathan points out changes to the mapping around Spirna, with Surat Maps now showing the filtration plant to be under Ukrainian control, contrary to other maps. He reads a report from Surat Maps which states that the area is again under the full control of the Ukrainian Army based on footage that is several days old. The report also mentions that Google Maps satellite imagery has been updated to show the level of destruction in the area.
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Vesele: Russian gains north of the settlement
🎦 06:16-07:11⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces appear to be making gains around Vesele, pushing up towards the railway line and further into Ukrainian territory. He notes the challenging topography in the area, with ravines and rivers, which could give advantages and disadvantages to both sides.
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Bakhmut: No changes to the front line, but Russian forces continue to push towards Chasiv Yar
🎦 07:11-09:40⏩
Jonathan observes that there are no changes to the front line in Bakhmut but that Russian forces continue to push west of Ivanovske towards Chasiv Yar. He notes that the ISW has not been able to visually confirm these claims, though this doesn't mean there isn't any evidence, just that they haven't seen it. He reports that Russian sources are discussing the difficulties Russian forces are having in trying to take Chasiv Yar, with one milblogger complaining that infantry have been forced to conduct dismounted assaults due to the threat posed by Ukrainian drones. The milblogger also reports that some Russian infantry only receive a week and a half of training before being sent to Bakhmut. Jonathan agrees with other milbloggers that the Ukrainian defences and topography around Chasiv Yar are likely to prove challenging for Russian forces. He notes that, as with the capture of Bakhmut, Russian forces are making little use of mechanised equipment in this area, relying instead on infantry assaults.
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South of Bakhmut: Situation unclear, fighting continues
🎦 09:40-13:02⏩
Jonathan states that the situation to the south of Bakhmut is unclear. While DeepState map shows a slight change in the area of Bahkmut, DeepState and Andriy Perpetua do not support the claims from Surat Maps that Russian forces have crossed the river in Berdychi or the river around Semenivka or Ivaniske. Jonathan notes that if true, this would be bad news for the Ukrainians, as it would mean their defensive line and natural barrier had been broken. He speculates that even if some Russian troops have managed to cross the river, the real test will be whether or not they can get mechanised equipment across. Looking further south, Jonathan observes that both Andriy Perpetua and Surat Maps show Russian forces making gains north of Pervomaisk and towards the two watercourses that run between Pervomaisk and Umanske. He reads from Surat Maps which says that new Russian advances have been made to the north and west of Vodiane. Jonathan states that the ISW is reporting that Russian forces have made advances west of Avdiivka, with one milblogger claiming that they have advanced up to 1.5km in recent days in the direction of the Umanske-Netaylove line. He notes that another milblogger has claimed that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Parasyukivka and Semenivka, but this has not been confirmed by the ISW, who believe that Russian forces occupy most of Berdychi. Jonathan believes that it wouldn't be a disaster if the Ukrainians were to withdraw from Berdychi, but that they would want to hold on to Semenivka if possible, as it represents the source of the river.
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Donetsk Oblast: Russian gains south of Novomykhailivka
🎦 13:02-15:31⏩
Moving south, Jonathan states that there have been no changes to the front line around Krasnohorivka, Marinka and Pobieda. He expresses concern over the gains being made by Russian forces south of Novomykhailivka, as their continued advance could see them reach the road that connects Vuhledar to Kostyantynivka and ultimately threaten the town itself. Jonathan speculates that the Russians may be trying to outflank Kostyantynivka, having found it too difficult to take the town directly, as we have seen elsewhere. He notes that the ISW has confirmed marginal Russian advances southwest of Novomykhailivka, based on geolocated footage showing Russian forces in control of a windbreak in the area. Footage from Surat Maps shows a Ukrainian tank engaging Russian positions in this area. Jonathan states that it is difficult to determine from the available footage whether or not the Russians have consolidated their control of the windbreak.
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Southern Front: Positional fighting continues
🎦 15:31-16:05⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been no changes to the southern front line, with fighting remaining largely positional and quiet in comparison to other areas.
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Velyka Novosilka-Robotyne: Positional fighting
🎦 15:45-16:05⏩
Jonathan reports that the ISW has confirmed reports of positional fighting around Velyka Novosilka and Robotyne.
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Kherson: Russians change tactics, Ukrainian bridgehead remains active
🎦 16:05-17:20⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces remain active on the left bank of the Dnipro River, both at the Kinburn Spit and at the Antonovsky Bridge. He notes that the ISW is reporting a change in Russian tactics, with forces now conducting a larger number of assaults, but with smaller groups. This appears to be a response to the heavy losses inflicted on Russian forces by the Ukrainians in recent months. A Russian milblogger has claimed that Russian forces maintain a limited presence near the Antonovsky Road Bridge.
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Wrap up
🎦 17:20-17:33⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He expresses his thanks to the channel's members for their continued support.
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