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Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Belgorod incursion?

News🔷Hits and Losses Tuesday, 18th March 2025, 11:03
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
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Table of Contents 📖

Topic IDTopic TitleTimestamp
1Hello Team00:00-00:11
2Ukrainian General Staff Russian Losses00:11-01:27
3Andrew Perpetua Loss List Analysis01:27-02:24
4Ukrainian Equipment Losses Analysed02:24-04:15
5Russian Equipment Losses Analysed04:15-06:52
6Party Loaf Vehicle Explanation06:52-08:21
7South Korea and Ukraine Discuss Repatriation of North Korean POWs08:21-08:43
8Effectiveness of Ukrainian Heavy Bomber Drones08:43-09:44
9Zaporizhzhia Front Heating Up09:44-10:28
10Russian Objective to Cross Dnipro River and Territorial Gains10:28-11:30
11Kursk Incursion and Ukrainian Retreat11:30-12:58
12Analysis of Kursk Incursion: Oliver Carroll and Samuel Bendet12:58-15:21
13Trump's Claim of Saving Ukrainian Troops in Kursk - A False Concession15:21-18:21
14Trump-Putin Agreement and Russian Disinformation18:21-20:52
15Russian False Flag Operations and Disinformation20:52-22:07
16Belgorod Incursion Rumours22:07-24:55
17Military Clinic Fire in Vladikavkaz and Distance Strikes24:55-25:14
18Russian Drone Attacks and Ukrainian Air Defence Issues25:14-27:29
19Strikes in Krasnodar and Berdyansk Wildfires27:29-29:22
20Norwegian NASAMS Effectiveness and Ukrainian Missile Production29:22-30:04
21Ukrainian Jamming of Russian Glide Bombs and French Guided Bombs30:04-31:13
22Ukrainian Drone Range Increase and Neptune Missile Capabilities31:13-32:23
23Russian Army Sending Infected Soldiers to Front Lines32:23-32:44
24Gazprom's $13.1 Billion Losses32:44-33:22
25Russian Intelligence Organised Arson Attacks in Vilnius and Warsaw33:22-34:40
26Hybrid Warfare and NATO Response to Russian Actions34:40-36:13
27Russian Satellite Sabotage and UN Complaint36:13-38:22
28Plans for Troop Deployment to Ukraine and Peace Negotiations38:22-39:47
29Trump-Putin Talks and Potential Concessions: Crimea and Odesa39:47-41:59
30Historical Context of Non-Recognition Policy and US Declarations41:59-43:44
31Potential Dismantling of International Legal Order43:44-44:21
32Ukraine's Stance: No Territorial Concessions44:21-44:55
33White House Press Secretary's False Claim About Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant44:55-46:23
34US Approach: Recognising Occupied Territories as Russian Border?46:23-47:07
35Trump's Strategy to Pressure Ukraine and "Humanity" Justification47:07-48:09
36Summary of Trump-Putin Developments and Ukraine Division48:09-48:51
37Wrap up48:51-49:28

"It's honestly hugely important, and people are talking about this, that it's just part of this ploy."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:11

  • Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for the Ukraine War News Update for 18th March 2025, Part 1.
  • He mentions that the update will begin with Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses.


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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Ukrainian General Staff Russian Losses

🎦 00:11-01:27

  • Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are presented, noting high numbers in several categories.
    • Personnel: 1,560, a significant increase from the usual 1,200-1,250, the highest in some time.
    • Tanks: 8 lost, slightly below the daily average but still notable.
    • AFVs: 20 troop carrying AFVs lost.
    • Artillery Systems: 42 lost, double the daily average, considered a good number.
    • MLRS: 1 multiple launch rocket system lost.
    • Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 3 lost, a very significant haul for Ukraine.
    • Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 107 lost, typically a high number.
    • Special Equipment: 2 pieces lost.
  • Overall, personnel and anti-aircraft warfare system losses are particularly high for Russia, with artillery losses also consistently significant.


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Andrew Perpetua Loss List Analysis

🎦 01:27-02:24

  • Jonathan transitions to Andrew Perpetua's loss list for further analysis.
  • Personnel losses: Andrew Perpetua's tracked figure is 209 Russian personnel.
  • High losses are noted on both sides, with combat asset losses being roughly equal.
  • Russian losses marginally exceed Ukrainian losses mainly due to a higher number of ATV losses.


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Ukrainian Equipment Losses Analysed

🎦 02:24-04:15

  • Analysis of Ukrainian equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua's list:
    • High damage and irretrievable losses are noted.
    • Losses include boats and artillery pieces, including a damaged Bogdana.
    • A destroyed M1 Abrams tank is listed, possibly in the Kursk region.
    • Five tanks in total were lost (two destroyed, three damaged), with the M1 Abrams being a significant loss.
    • Seven infantry fighting vehicles were lost, including a captured Bradley and another destroyed Bradley.
    • The rest of the IFV losses are mainly BMPs, mostly destroyed, abandoned, or captured.
    • A single AFV was lost.
    • Half a dozen APCs were lost, mainly M113s, highlighting ongoing M113 losses.
    • A couple of French-provided VAB APCs (wheeled) were also lost.
    • A significant number of MRAPs (around a dozen) were lost, mostly destroyed or abandoned, comprising Western-provided and indigenously made types.
    • KUAPI MRAPs are featuring frequently, potentially due to substantial Turkish military aid.
    • Humvee losses are also listed, although most are damaged rather than destroyed, reflecting the large number of Humvees supplied to Ukraine by the US.
    • Civilian vehicle losses are typically high, with about two-thirds being destroyed.


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Russian Equipment Losses Analysed

🎦 04:15-06:52

  • Analysis of Russian equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua's list:
    • Another Pantsir S1 air defence system was lost, continuing a recent trend.
    • A Russian counter-battery radar "Zoo Park" was destroyed by HIMARS cluster munitions. Jonathan directs viewers to the description for video evidence. Zoo Parks are described as expensive and valuable radar systems.
    • Four artillery pieces were lost, considered insignificant.
    • Eight tanks were lost, with a notable 50% (four) featuring "garden sheds" (improvised armour). One tank had mine rollers, aligning with recent observations about Russian tank modifications.
    • Jonathan suggests that a high percentage of tanks with improvised armour indicates Russia is using tanks as APCs due to shortages of dedicated AFVs.
    • Approximately 15 infantry fighting vehicles were lost, mainly BMP-2s, with some BTRs also featuring improvised armour. Almost all were destroyed or abandoned, indicating significant Russian losses.
    • Three out of four APC losses were destroyed, including MTLBs and other infantry mobility vehicles.


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Party Loaf Vehicle Explanation

🎦 06:52-08:21

  • Jonathan addresses a viewer question about "party loaf" vehicles, referencing Andrew Perpetua's terminology.
  • A "party loaf" is described as a vehicle with the top and sides cut off, essentially just the cabin.
  • Jonathan humorously describes different "loaf" variations documented by Andrew Perpetua, including a "fanciest loaf" with a "hat and a veil with eyelash extensions".
  • Despite similar overall equipment losses on both sides, Jonathan concludes that Russia had a worse day due to the loss of high-value assets like the Pantsir S1 and Zoo Park.


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South Korea and Ukraine Discuss Repatriation of North Korean POWs

🎦 08:21-08:43

  • South Korea and Ukraine are reportedly in discussions regarding the repatriation of North Korean prisoners of war.
  • Seoul's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yoo informed Ukraine's Foreign Minister that South Korea's constitution considers captured North Korean soldiers as South Korean citizens who can defect if they wish.


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Effectiveness of Ukrainian Heavy Bomber Drones

🎦 08:43-09:44

  • Jonathan highlights a thread from Andrew Perpetua illustrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian heavy bomber drones.
  • These drones, capable of carrying multiple bombs, are causing significant damage and casualties to Russian forces.
  • One example detailed a drone strike that killed everyone in a car and then killed four out of six rescuers in a second strike.
  • Another strike took out two "Loaves" (vehicles) and seven Russians with four bombs.
  • Jonathan explains that the effectiveness of these "Baba Yaga-type" drones is why Russia complains about them so much, as they can carry more munitions and inflict substantial damage.


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Zaporizhzhia Front Heating Up

🎦 09:44-10:28

  • Zaporizhzhia direction appears to be heating up again.
  • Video footage is shown of the destruction of a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS, a Strela air defence system, and troops in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • Andrew Perpetua's map update for the 17th shows Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia, with control expanded in Mali-Shabaki and presence in Stepova, although the permanence of these gains is unknown.


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Russian Objective to Cross Dnipro River and Territorial Gains

🎦 10:28-11:30

  • Jonathan spoke to Zhenya, who indicated that Russia is attempting to cross the Dnipro River and is attacking in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • Zhenya believes Russia is trying to gain as much territory as possible before a potential forced freezing of the front line.
  • The anticipated agreement would freeze the front lines based on current positions, irrespective of oblast borders. This incentivises both Russia and Ukraine to maximise territorial control before any such deal.
  • Ukraine is also applying pressure in Kupyansk, Turetsk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk to regain territory before a potential peace deal.


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Kursk Incursion and Ukrainian Retreat

🎦 11:30-12:58

  • Discussion shifts to the Kursk incursion.
  • A BBC report describes Ukrainian troops retreating from Kursk under heavy Russian drone fire that blocked supply routes.
  • Key roads were bombed, and dozens of vehicles destroyed. Russia deployed 70,000 troops, including North Koreans and kamikaze drones, to retake the area.
  • Despite Ukraine inflicting over 50,000 Russian casualties, they lost most of the gained territory.
  • Some analysts consider the incursion a success for Ukraine, as it forced Russia to expend significant resources and suffer substantial losses of personnel and equipment, even though territory was ultimately lost.
  • The operation's success depends on the metrics used: strategically, territory was lost, but operationally, Russia suffered heavy losses and was forced to redeploy troops.


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Analysis of Kursk Incursion: Oliver Carroll and Samuel Bendet

🎦 12:58-15:21

  • Oliver Carroll in The Economist reports on the Kursk incursion, with a headline stating "Ukraine's army escapes from Kursk by the skin of its teeth". Carroll suggests the headline may be an exaggeration.
  • Carroll argues that while it wasn't a complete disaster as portrayed by Russia or Trump, a partial withdrawal occurred due to quick thinking by junior commanders.
  • Ukrainian soldiers reported being blindsided by the Russian surge and stated that they lacked sufficient resources for defence, contradicting claims that only offensive intelligence sharing was cut off by the US.
  • Samuel Bendet in Forbes attributes the Russian victory in Kursk to improved Russian drone tactics, particularly by the Rubicon group, which proved highly effective against Ukrainian forces.


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Trump's Claim of Saving Ukrainian Troops in Kursk - A False Concession

🎦 15:21-18:21

  • Jonathan discusses a "wildly incorrect" claim from Trump, who stated, "I saved the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region. I asked Putin not to take active actions against the encircled Ukrainian troops, and they were allowed to break out of the encirclement."
  • Jonathan argues this is a lie and part of a larger ploy related to peace negotiations and potential concessions between Trump and Putin.
  • He suggests Trump is using this fabricated "concession" (saving Ukrainian troops who were never actually encircled) to create a false narrative of having extracted concessions from Russia, when in reality, Putin is making no real concessions.


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Trump-Putin Agreement and Russian Disinformation

🎦 18:21-20:52

  • Jonathan analyses Trump's claim within the context of potential Trump-Putin agreements and Russian disinformation tactics.
  • He highlights a prior "weird video" of a Russian fighter pilot claiming to be inexplicably ordered not to target withdrawing Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Jonathan initially dismissed this as untrue.
  • Now, in light of Trump's claim, Jonathan believes the video was likely a Russian plant to create a false narrative of Russian concession, aligning with Trump's false claim of saving Ukrainian troops.
  • Jonathan argues that this "non-concession" is designed to allow Trump to enter negotiations with Putin and present himself as having secured concessions for Ukraine, while in reality, Putin makes no actual concessions. This would allow Trump to pressure Ukraine with maximalist Russian demands, and blame Ukraine if they are not accepted, claiming he already "saved" Ukrainian troops.


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Russian False Flag Operations and Disinformation

🎦 20:52-22:07

  • Discussion turns to Russian disinformation and false flag operations.
  • Video evidence shows Russians using blue tape to disguise themselves as Ukrainian soldiers, suggesting a tactic to stage fake war crimes and attribute them to Ukrainian forces for propaganda purposes.
  • Jonathan warns viewers to be skeptical of shared information and to question potentially false narratives.


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Belgorod Incursion Rumours

🎦 22:07-24:55

  • Jonathan revisits information he received in January about a potential Ukrainian attack into Russia, specifically Belgorod, similar to the Kursk incursion, but potentially as a feint to draw Russian forces away from another area.
  • Reports from Russian war bloggers claim a Ukrainian offensive into the Belgorod region is underway, near villages bordering the Sumy region.
  • These reports suggest Ukrainian forces with infantry, armoured vehicles and tanks are engaged in combat, but there is no official confirmation from either side.
  • Jonathan cautions that this could be just rumours or deep reconnaissance, not a full-scale offensive.
  • He speculates that if true, the Belgorod incursion could be timed to coincide with Trump-Putin negotiations, potentially to gain bargaining leverage by seizing Russian territory.


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Military Clinic Fire in Vladikavkaz and Distance Strikes

🎦 24:55-25:14

  • A military clinic in Vladikavkaz, Russia, reportedly caught fire, with unknown causes (sabotage, strike, or accident).
  • Moving to distance strikes, Jonathan notes limited information from the previous night.


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Russian Drone Attacks and Ukrainian Air Defence Issues

🎦 25:14-27:29

  • Russia launched 137 drones into Ukraine overnight, a typical number.
  • Ukraine intercepted 127 drones (63 by conventional means, 64 by electronic warfare), meaning approximately 10 drones (7-9%) got through.
  • This drone penetration rate is concerning as it indicates a change from previous higher interception rates (95-100% in recent months, compared to 60-70% earlier in the war).
  • Jonathan suggests possible reasons for the decreased interception rate: changes in Russian tactics, improved Russian drone capabilities, or a shortage of Ukrainian air defence munitions.
  • A significant infrastructure facility in Dnipropetrovsk was hit by Russian drones, causing a massive fire. Officially, no casualties are reported. Locals described a "hell on earth" in Dnipro. The blast is believed to be in Obukivka, near Dnipro.


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Strikes in Krasnodar and Berdyansk Wildfires

🎦 27:29-29:22

  • Another explosion was reported near Chikasi.
  • Krasnodar, Russia, was also reportedly hit overnight. Jonathan mentions receiving information from Paul Sweeney about fires and strikes often unreported on social media.
  • Berdyansk experienced "colourful" events overnight, initially suspected as strikes, but possibly wildfires. Tim White suggests they are likely natural wildfires, common at this time of year, rather than drone attacks.
  • Footage shows a massive fire in Berdyansk, described as "almost beautiful, yet not completely destructive and horrific". Jonathan acknowledges the destructive nature of wildfires.


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Norwegian NASAMS Effectiveness and Ukrainian Missile Production

🎦 29:22-30:04

  • Norwegian NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems delivered to Ukraine have demonstrated high efficiency, intercepting approximately 900 Russian air targets with a 94% success rate.
  • There are indications that Ukraine may start producing NASAMS missiles domestically, potentially through Zitkungsberg, although this would take time to set up.


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Ukrainian Jamming of Russian Glide Bombs and French Guided Bombs

🎦 30:04-31:13

  • Spiegel reports that Ukraine has found a way to jam Russian guided glide bombs, disrupting their satellite guidance systems and causing them to miss targets. This forces Russia to use more munitions to achieve hits, increasing costs and logistical challenges.
  • Conversely, Ukraine is effectively using guided bombs, including French AASM Hammer bombs, demonstrated in strikes like the one on the Chongar Bridge.
  • French Hammer AASM bombs are praised as "the best," particularly effective against protected underground targets and resistant to electronic warfare.


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Ukrainian Drone Range Increase and Neptune Missile Capabilities

🎦 31:13-32:23

  • Zelensky announced that Ukrainian drones have passed a 3000km test, meaning almost all of Russia is now within range of Ukrainian drones.
  • There is also renewed discussion about the Neptune missile's range, with claims it can reach 1000km, potentially putting Moscow within range.
  • Jonathan suggests that if Ukraine can strike Moscow with missiles as Russia strikes Kyiv, it would create a "game changer" scenario and significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict.


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Russian Army Sending Infected Soldiers to Front Lines

🎦 32:23-32:44

  • Reports indicate the Russian army is illegally sending soldiers infected with HIV and hepatitis to the front lines in Ukraine, where they cannot receive treatment or life-saving drugs.
  • Relatives report these men are "slowly dying" and posing a risk to other wounded soldiers.
  • Jonathan suggests this reflects Russia's desperation for troops, leading them to deploy personnel unfit for service.


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Gazprom's $13.1 Billion Losses

🎦 32:44-33:22

  • Russian energy giant Gazprom has suffered $13.1 billion in losses in 2024.
  • This financial trouble is compounded by falling share prices in its subsidiary Gazprom Neft and an increased income tax rate of 25%, raising deferred tax liabilities.
  • Gazprom is reportedly in significant financial difficulty and has recently laid off staff.


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Russian Intelligence Organised Arson Attacks in Vilnius and Warsaw

🎦 33:22-34:40

  • Lithuanian prosecutors have concluded that arson attacks on shopping centres in Vilnius and Warsaw in May of last year were organised by Russian intelligence services.
  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed these findings, stating the investigation confirmed suspicions that Russian secret services were responsible.
  • The suspect who set fire to the IKEA store in Vilnius was reportedly paid €10,000 and given a BMW for his cooperation.


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Hybrid Warfare and NATO Response to Russian Actions

🎦 34:40-36:13

  • Jonathan argues that these arson attacks are not just "hybrid war" but acts of war by a state actor against NATO members Poland and Lithuania.
  • He expresses concern about the seemingly weak response, suggesting that describing it merely as "such is the nature of this state" (as Donald Tusk implied) is insufficient.
  • Jonathan believes there should be "massive consequences," possibly even military, for such actions, arguing that underreaction only emboldens Russia.
  • He suggests the US and NATO should be taking a stronger stance and that this could even be considered under NATO Article 5.


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Russian Satellite Sabotage and UN Complaint

🎦 36:13-38:22

  • Eight European nations have filed a complaint with the UN regarding Russia's interference with European satellite communications, targeting UTELSAT and SES, which support television, radio, and aviation navigation.
  • The disruptions have been traced back to Russian-controlled areas like Crimea and Kaliningrad.
  • Russia's satellite interference poses serious risks beyond media disruption, affecting civilian aviation and maritime traffic by distorting navigation signals.
  • Over 30,000 flights over the Baltic region have suffered interference since September 2023, endangering safety and economic activity.
  • Satellite companies have engaged in unsuccessful discussions with Russia at the UN, highlighting the ongoing and unresolved nature of the issue.


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Plans for Troop Deployment to Ukraine and Peace Negotiations

🎦 38:22-39:47

  • Six countries, including the UK, France, Turkey, Canada, and Australia, are reportedly discussing plans to send up to 30,000 troops to Ukraine, possibly in the context of a ceasefire, to potentially free up Ukrainian troops for the front lines.
  • Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, described US-Russia relations as positive, stating Trump and Putin are "very good friends" focused on "shared objectives and shared interests".
  • Jonathan criticises Gabbard for retweeting pro-Russia Today content and for promoting a positive view of Trump-Putin relations, given her position in US intelligence.


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Trump-Putin Talks and Potential Concessions: Crimea and Odesa

🎦 39:47-41:59

  • New York Times previews Trump-Putin talks, raising concerns that Trump might offer significant concessions to Russia, potentially including giving Russia control of the port of Odesa.
  • Such a deal would provoke outrage in Ukraine and be unacceptable to Zelensky, potentially providing Trump with a pretext to blame Ukraine and withdraw US support.
  • Semaphore reports Trump is considering recognising Crimea as Russian territory to end the war, which is considered a "non-starter" and a "red line" for Ukraine.
  • Eric Cross argues that if the US recognises Russian territorial gains achieved by force, it would fundamentally shift US foreign policy, reversing nearly a century of precedent based on the Stimson Doctrine and the UN Charter's principles of state sovereignty and non-recognition of territorial changes by aggression.


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Historical Context of Non-Recognition Policy and US Declarations

🎦 41:59-43:44

  • Jonathan provides historical context for the US policy of non-recognition of territorial gains achieved by aggression:
    • Stimson Doctrine (1932): US non-recognition of territorial changes from aggression, initially in response to Japan's invasion of Manchuria.
    • Samuel Wells Declaration (1940): US refusal to recognise Soviet annexation of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
    • First Gulf War (1990): President George H.W. Bush's non-recognition of Iraqi annexation of Kuwait, based on the same principle.
    • Crimea Declaration (2018): The Trump administration itself reaffirmed the non-recognition of Russia's claims of sovereignty over Crimea, pledging to maintain this policy until Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored.
  • Jonathan notes that this 2018 Crimea Declaration text appears to have been removed from the US Kyiv Embassy's website, raising further concerns about a potential policy shift under Trump.


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🎦 43:44-44:21

  • Jonathan expresses alarm that reversing the Stimson Doctrine and dismantling the UN Charter's principles would fundamentally alter the international order, potentially legitimising territorial grabs by force globally.
  • He warns that if the US abandons this principle, it would become no better than Russia, undermining the basis of international law and state sovereignty.


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Ukraine's Stance: No Territorial Concessions

🎦 44:21-44:55

  • Ukrainian MP Venislavski states unequivocally that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not up for negotiation and concessions are not an option.
  • While Ukraine currently lacks the military capability to liberate all occupied territories, they will remain temporarily occupied until reclaimed, either militarily or diplomatically.
  • Ukraine's firm stance sets the stage for potential pressure from the US and Russia to force concessions.


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White House Press Secretary's False Claim About Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

🎦 44:55-46:23

  • Jonathan criticises the White House Press Secretary for falsely stating that there is a nuclear power plant on the border of Russia and Ukraine, seemingly referring to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • He corrects this misinformation, stating that Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is not on the border but is located well within Ukraine's internationally recognised borders, albeit in Russian-occupied territory, near the front line, but nowhere near the Russian-Ukrainian border.
  • He expresses outrage at this "douchebag" statement from the White House, viewing it as unacceptable rhetoric from the US government and suggesting the US may have "changed sides".
  • Christopher Miller from the Financial Times also corrected the Press Secretary's false statement.


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US Approach: Recognising Occupied Territories as Russian Border?

🎦 46:23-47:07

  • Jonathan interprets the White House Press Secretary's false statement as potentially aligning with a US approach to recognise occupied territories as Russian, and then casually referring to these occupied territories as the "Russian border."
  • He sees this as a shocking indication of a potential US policy shift towards accepting Russia's territorial gains.
  • Trump's past statements about needing to "get Ukraine to do the right thing" and his planned strategy to pressure Ukraine are cited as further evidence of this concerning direction.


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Trump's Strategy to Pressure Ukraine and "Humanity" Justification

🎦 47:07-48:09

  • Trump confirmed his confrontational approach with Zelensky in the Oval Office was a deliberate strategy to pressure Ukraine.
  • He also claimed that stopping weapons supplies to Ukraine had "no consequences" and was "appreciated", which Jonathan strongly refutes as "not good" and "really the opposite."
  • Trump justifies his actions by claiming he is involved "for humanity" and wants to stop the deaths, framing his pressure on Ukraine and potential peace deal as being motivated by humanitarian concerns.
  • Jonathan counters that if Trump truly cared about humanity, he would focus on Russia's ongoing bombardment of Ukraine, not on pushing for a quick peace deal for economic gain.


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Summary of Trump-Putin Developments and Ukraine Division

🎦 48:09-48:51

  • Jonathan summarises key developments regarding Trump-Putin relations and potential deals impacting Ukraine:
    • Director of National Intelligence describes Trump and Putin as "very good friends" working on "shared objectives".
    • Trump openly discusses "dividing up assets," referring to Ukraine.
    • Trump is considering recognising Crimea as part of Russia.
  • Jonathan concludes that the US, under Trump, may be willing to carve up Ukraine, potentially for economic benefits (access to minerals), seeing it as a deal between "two great nations."


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Wrap up

🎦 48:51-49:28

  • Jonathan concludes the news update, mentioning he will follow developments regarding the Trump-Putin call and peace negotiations.
  • He announces upcoming live streams: today with a Canadian military trainer at 2 PM, tomorrow with Malcolm Nance, and Friday with Marika Mariuszewski from Georgia, discussing Georgia.
  • He mentions a busy week ahead and signs off.


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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

No queries, everything understood.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

The user wants me to summarise a YouTube transcript from ATP Geopolitics. I need to follow the 6 tasks and output the response in XML format. I will go through each task step by step and make sure I follow all the rules and guidance. Thinking Process: TASK 1: Title, Date, and Part: Extract the title by removing the date and part from "Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS (20250318a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Belgorod incursion?". Extract the date "20250318" and convert it to DD/MM/YYYY format "18/03/2025". Extract the part "a" and convert it to uppercase "A". Wrap these in XML tags ``, ``, and ``.
  1. TASK 2: Topic Titles:
  • Read through the transcript and identify distinct topics.
  • Start with topic ID 1 for "Hello Team".
  • Create specific, quantified, and granular topic titles.
  • Ensure Ukrainian spellings are used (Kyiv, Odesa).
  • Identify the last topic and title it "Wrap up".
  • Use `

    ` tags for each topic.

  • I will go through the transcript section by section and identify topic changes.
  1. TASK 3: Topic Timestamps:
  • For each topic identified in TASK 2, find the start and end timestamps from the transcript.
  • Use "start timestamp - end timestamp" format.
  • If a topic appears in multiple sections, record multiple timeframes separated by commas.
  • Use `` tags, ensuring the `id` matches the `topictitle` `id`.
  • Double-check that the timestamps cover the entire video without significant gaps.
  1. TASK 4: Topic Summaries:
  • For each topic, write a concise summary of the key points using bullet points.
  • Include context, sources, Jonathan's opinions, and insights.
  • Use British English and correct any spelling errors in the transcript (especially placenames, names).
  • Do not add external information.
  • Use markdown for emphasis if needed, but sparingly.
  • Wrap each summary in `
    ` tags.
  1. TASK 5: Quote:
  • Choose a significant quote from Jonathan.
  • Ensure it is concise and makes sense out of context.
  • Correct any errors and remove hesitations from the quote.
  • Wrap the quote in `
    ` tags.
  1. TASK 6: Queries:
  • Identify any parts of the tasks or transcript that were unclear.
  • If everything is understood, state that.
  • Wrap queries in `

    🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

    ` tags.

Pre-computation/Analysis:
  • I will need to pay close attention to Ukrainian place names and ensure correct spellings (Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia).
  • I will watch out for commonly misspelled names like Artur Rehi, Special Kherson Cat, etc.
  • I need to identify topic boundaries in the transcript to create granular topic titles.
  • I will need to be mindful of the British English requirement.
Confidence Checklist:
  • [x] Task 1: Title, Date, and Part extraction and XML tagging.
  • [x] Task 2: Topic Title identification and XML tagging.
  • [x] Task 3: Topic Timestamp extraction and XML tagging.
  • [x] Task 4: Topic Summary writing and XML tagging.
  • [x] Task 5: Quote selection and XML tagging.
  • [x] Task 6: Queries XML tagging.
  • [x] Output XML format and structure.
  • [x] British English.
  • [x] Correct spellings (Ukrainian placenames, names).
I am now ready to generate the XML response, following these steps.

Tags

ATP-AI-Bot

Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos

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