Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I'm sick of having to pussyfoot around certain people like tucker carson like donald trump who are saying egregious things"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video: Ukraine War Update, the first part for 28th February 2024. He's about to review the daily figures for Russian losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - 27th February 2024
🎦 00:10-02:02⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for 27th February 2024. He encourages viewers to check the description for the usual caveats. The figures are:
- 1,060 personnel
- 14 tanks
- 14 armoured personnel vehicles
- 20 artillery systems
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 2 aircraft (Su-34s)
- 47 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 6 pieces of special equipment.
Jonathan cross-references the figures with averages from Bill's dashboard of Ukraine war statistics which can be found at ukrainewarstatistics.com.
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Difficulties of verifying downed Russian aircraft
🎦 02:02-04:45⏩
Jonathan discusses how difficult it is to independently verify claims of downed aircraft. He refers to a recent live stream by Andriy Perpetua where he mentions three potential downed aircraft identified from low-resolution satellite imagery. These showed "black scorch marks" near the Russian border and Mariupol. Jonathan explains that unlike tanks blowing up (which are often caught on drone footage), aircraft are often shot down far behind the frontlines and so are difficult to visually verify. He says that whilst Ukrainian military intelligence radar will show a missile being fired and an aircraft disappearing from radar (which is enough for them to confidently claim a kill) it is harder for open source intelligence to confirm these without visual evidence. Jonathan explains that this visual confirmation may come weeks later when low resolution satellite imagery eventually becomes available. He mentions that Russian sources such as Fighterbomber (a Russian fighter pilot) can also provide independent verification when they post tributes to downed pilots. Jonathan concludes by highlighting how the Ukrainians are now deploying Patriot and NASAMS systems as part of mobile air defence teams to target Russian aircraft. He acknowledges the recent loss of a NASAMS launcher but believes "that's a price you'd be willing to pay" for the high value aircraft being shot down.
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Impact of Ukrainian Air Defences on Russian tactics
🎦 04:45-06:33⏩
Jonathan describes how Russia are now wary of using their aircraft to deploy guided glide bombs over Ukrainian positions now that Ukraine has deployed more effective air defences, as was seen by the lack of Russian fixed-wing activity after the downing of two A-50 AWACS aircraft. He notes how Russian jets are now operating from within Russian airspace and are currently targeting the northern Oblasts of Sumy and Kharkiv with a large number of unguided (gravity) bombs, forcing the Ukrainians to fall back in these regions. As well as targeting grain infrastructure in Odesa, Reni and Izmail, the Russians appear to be deliberately targeting Ukrainian grain storage facilities. Jonathan highlights that the Russians are also using S-300 systems to target targets in Kharkiv Oblast.
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Drone persuades Russian soldier to surrender
🎦 06:33-07:41⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a Ukrainian drone dropping a message to a Russian soldier hiding in a destroyed BMP alongside the body of a dead comrade. The soldier initially appears frightened but then follows the drone and surrenders to the Ukrainians.
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Russian soldier punished for leaking images of HIMARS strike in Volnovakha
🎦 07:41-09:15⏩
Jonathan contrasts the drone footage with an incident on February 20th where 65 Russian soldiers were killed by a HIMARS strike whilst assembled at a training facility near Volnovakha. The incident came to light after photographs of the dead soldiers were leaked online. Jonathan notes how the Russians dismissed the photographs as fake news, claiming the uniforms of the dead soldiers were too clean. He notes the irony of the Russian soldier who shared the photographs then being punished (by being placed in a pit) for sharing "fake news".
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Snow melt reveals extensive Russian minefields
🎦 09:15-10:05⏩
Jonathan shares footage of extensive Russian minefields that have been revealed by melting snow, noting the density of the minefields. He observes that these minefields are a significant obstacle for both sides but particularly for the Russians as they are the ones having to advance.
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Partisans blow up United Russia party office in Nova Kakhovka
🎦 10:05-10:15⏩
Jonathan reports that partisans have blown up a United Russia party office in Nova Kakhovka on the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River. He notes how Kherson Oblast has been subject to increased shelling over recent days.
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Russian war criminal killed in car bomb attack
🎦 10:20-10:37⏩
Jonathan reports on the death of Serhiy Konkov, an ex-Wagner mercenary who confessed to killing two Ukrainian and two Polish POWs with his bare hands, who died in a car bomb attack in Krasnoyarsk, Russia. The National Resistance Center had previously stated that "one by one, the Russian war criminals, including the Supreme Kulio [Putin] will meet their fate".
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Another Russian shopping centre destroyed by fire
🎦 10:37-11:12⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a fire that destroyed a shopping centre in the village of Chunsky in Okhotsk, Russia. He notes how this is the latest in a number of fires that have affected Russian shopping centres, some of which were suspected of housing drone manufacturing facilities. Jonathan jokes that the reason for the fires is more likely to be because "drone in shopping malls" are struggling to do business, rather than a result of insurance fraud!
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Overnight drone and missile attacks
🎦 11:12-12:23⏩
Jonathan reports that ten Iranian-supplied Shahed drones that were launched at Ukraine overnight were shot down, although some detonated close to their intended targets. He encourages viewers to click a link in the description to view footage of a Ukrainian heavy machine gun engaging one of the drones. Jonathan reports that the port area of Odesa was targeted by the drones and that two residential buildings were damaged by Russian shelling. He reiterates that the Russians are targeting grain storage facilities in Kharkiv and Sumy using S-300 missiles, as well as heavily shelling settlements along the Dnipro River.
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Update on Ukrainian attacks inside Russia
🎦 12:23-12:37⏩
Jonathan says that he has no information regarding Ukrainian strikes inside Russia overnight but, as he mentioned yesterday, these are now a regular occurence but not always reported.
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Navalny's lawyer briefly detained
🎦 12:37-13:29⏩
Jonathan reports on the arrest of Vasily Dubkov - the lawyer who represented Alexei Navalny's mother - by Moscow police for "disorderly conduct". He decries the arrest and detention as an example of the lack of freedom in Russia where those who defend human rights are routinely arrested and locked up. He notes how Dubkov was released an hour later but did not comment on the reasons for his arrest other than to say that it was intended to obstruct his work as a lawyer.
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Russian human rights activist Oleg Orlov jailed for "discrediting the Russian army"
🎦 13:29-14:54⏩
Jonathan expresses his despair at the arrest and imprisonment of Oleg Orlov, another prominent Russian human rights activist, for the crime of "discrediting the Russian army". He notes the irony of Orlov, someone who has spent his life documenting the horrors of Russia's totalitarian past, being arrested by the very regime he was warning people about. Jonathan notes how depressing he finds it that anyone could still support Russia. He talks about the comments he receives on his own articles and how some seem deliberately designed to undermine and belittle him. He expresses his frustration at how "it's so obvious who the bad guys are" but people still try to defend Russia.
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Leaked documents reveal Russia's criteria for nuclear weapons use
🎦 14:54-17:59⏩
Jonathan reports on leaked Russian military files obtained by the Financial Times that reveal Russia's doctrine for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The 29 documents, which date from 2008-2014, indicate a far lower threshold for the use of nuclear weapons than previously thought. As well as an incursion into Russian territory, the documents reveal a number of potential triggers, including:
- the destruction of 20 of Russia's strategic ballistic missile submarines.
- the destruction of three or more large surface warships.
- the destruction of three airfields.
- the destruction of 30 of Russia's nuclear powered submarines
- a "simultaneous hit" on main and reserve coastal command centres.
Jonathan highlights how the documents also demonstrate a distrust of China, with military exercises based on a hypothetical Chinese attack. Jonathan references analysis of the documents by open source intelligence expert William L. Burke who summarises four key takeaways:
- Russian doctrine for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons by the Russian Navy includes a much lower threshold for nuclear use than previously thought and far lower than the Kremlin has claimed in the years since the end of the Cold War.
- Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons remain a part of the surface fleet including missiles, bombs, torpedoes, depth charges all with hot swappable conventional and nuclear warheads - despite promising to remove them in the presidential nuclear initiatives.
- Russia has done extensive work to target with nuclear and conventional precision strike civilian and military infrastructure in Japan, and at least some theoretical targeting against targets in South Korea, Iran, Azerbaijan, North Korea and even China.
- Russia's naval nuclear doctrine is consistent with its very real shortcomings and precarious position compared to the U.S. Navy therefore integrating nuclear planning at lower levels giving commanders wide targeting flexibility after initial nuclear use
Jonathan concludes by stating how this latest revelation should give "pro-Russian" supporters pause for thought, given that Russia is the only party in the conflict who is threatening to use nuclear weapons. He reiterates how it is Russia, not Ukraine, who invaded a sovereign nation and who is committing war crimes.
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The dangers of misinformation and Russian propaganda
🎦 17:59-36:22⏩
Jonathan shows footage of an incident in a Russian shopping mall where two people dressed as superheroes are inflating balloons for children. A man approaches and asks why they are dressed as "NATO" superheroes. He is dismissive when they state that they don't understand his question. Jonathan uses this incident to highlight the pervasive nature of Russian propaganda and how it is seeking to influence the very young. He goes on to say that this is just the tip of the iceberg and quotes Alexei Danilov (Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine) who recently revealed in an interview with The Times that Russian agents (including bots) are distributing an estimated 166 million disinformation posts about Ukraine per week, which equates to approximately 25 million per day. Jonathan then turns his attention to Fox News host Tucker Carlson and criticises him for pushing Russian propaganda and talking points, such as claiming that Ukraine killed Darya Dugina. Jonathan highlights how damaging this is and questions why Carlson feels the need to entertain these kinds of theories when it is clear who the bad actors are in this war. He points out how Carlson failed to mention that Russia has repeatedly tried to assassinate Navalny, including by using a nerve agent in a NATO country. Jonathan criticises Carlson for his whataboutism, both-sidesism and for using the issue to criticise the United States and Joe Biden. He compares Carlson to Trump, who he labels a "Muppet", and criticises both for focussing on issues such as immigration and the southern border when the future of Ukraine hangs in the balance. He points out that it is Biden and the Democrats who are actually being supportive of Ukraine. He mocks Carlson for saying that he is "just asking questions", pointing out that he is instead acting as a useful idiot for the Russian state. Jonathan then addresses those who claim that Ukraine killed Navalny, pointing out that Russia had plenty of motives to do so, including preventing him from becoming a future Russian leader. He states that by comparison, Ukraine had every reason to want to keep Navalny alive. He points out that Navalny's death directly coincided with a debate in the US Congress about funding for Ukraine and speculates that this may not have been a coincidence. Jonathan expresses his anger at the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson who announced that he would be delaying aid to Ukraine until at least 8th March, despite the precarious situation on the ground. He criticises Johnson for putting the needs of the US above those of a country fighting for its very existence. He implores viewers to call out those who seek to defend Johnson's stance, accusing them of being “part of the problem”. Jonathan shares footage from an interview he conducted with a woman in the US who states that she has no problem with Russia and that it is Ukraine which is corrupt. She states that Russia is simply trying to take back “what was theirs”. When it is pointed out that Russia is killing thousands of people, she responds "That's fine". She states that she does not see Russia as a threat to the United States and that she believes that Zelenskyy is the problem and not Putin, because she had seen Carlson's interview with Putin. Jonathan expresses his disbelief at the woman's comments, pointing out how dangerous this type of thinking is and how it is people like Tucker Carlson who are responsible for spreading it. He highlights how the woman's views reflect the views of many people and how pervasive Russian propaganda has become. He goes on to share another clip of an interview with an American veteran who, when asked if he is concerned about Russian aggression, responds by saying that he has watched the Tucker Carlson interview with Putin. He says that he doesn’t think that Russia wants to do anything. Jonathan despairs at the man’s ignorance and reiterates his point that Putin has invaded a sovereign nation and killed thousands of people. The footage ends with the interviewer expressing his shock and concern that so many people are repeating Russian propaganda and that these conversations are now taking place in American communities. Jonathan is visibly angry and upset by the footage and apologises to viewers for his language. He states that the woman in the interview seemed like a nice person but struggles to understand how she could hold such ill-informed views. He highlights how dangerous it is that people are being brainwashed into believing that Ukraine is the enemy and Russia is in the right. He blames this on Russian propaganda and those who spread it, such as Tucker Carlson, who he accuses of legitimising Putin. Jonathan highlights how dangerous this is given the potential for Trump to run for President again in 2024, particularly if he has someone like Carlson as his running mate. He is worried about the damage that is being done to public discourse, not only in the US but also in countries such as France. He is concerned that countries such as the US, which are pivotal to Ukraine's survival, may be influenced by Russian propaganda to withdraw support for Ukraine. He reveals that he was recently contacted by a Ukrainian soldier called Greg who told him about the horrific situation facing Ukrainians, which has come about as a result of the political impasse in Washington. Jonathan ends his rant by sharing a comment from a former fan who suggested that Trump is more intelligent than he is. He suggests that anyone who thinks that Trump is the answer to Ukraine’s problems has “some intelligence issues going on” and begs people not to come to his page and insult his intelligence whilst defending Trump.
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Wrap up
🎦 36:22-38:59⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.
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