Ukr War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Near-Frontline Drone Hits, Dog Rescue!
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:42⏩
Jonathan welcomed viewers to the first standard Ukraine War News Update for 31st May 2025. He mentioned a previous breaking news update concerning the visit of US Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal to Kyiv, praising their rhetoric and proposed bill, but expressed reservations about its potential impact due to Donald Trump.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Ukrainian General Staff Reports on Russian Losses (30/05/2025)
🎦 00:42-01:17⏩
Jonathan presented the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, reminding viewers of the usual caveats. Key figures included:
- 1,250 personnel lost: A decent number that has been increasing recently.
- Two tanks and five troop-carrying AFVs: Very low figures in these categories, a trend seen over the last week.
- 54 artillery systems: A significant jump, more than two and a half times the daily average.
- Two multiple launch rocket systems and one anti-aircraft warfare system: Good to see units in these categories.
- 109 vehicles and fuel tanks: A healthy number.
Current Frontline Situation & Challenges
🎦 01:17-01:54⏩
Jonathan highlighted that the situation is becoming increasingly challenging for Ukraine, particularly at the northern border, around Pokrovsk (eastwards towards Toretsk and New York, moving north towards Kostyantynivka), and in Zaporizhia. He noted there's "no rest for the wicked" on the frontlines.
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Civilian Casualties in Ukraine Increased by 59% (UN Report)
🎦 01:55-02:23⏩
The UN reported a 59% increase in civilian deaths in Ukraine over the past year. Jonathan stated this aligns with anecdotal observations of Russia's consistent use of drones and other weaponry against Ukrainian urban areas, with examples seen in overnight strikes.
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Ukrainian Airborne Troops Capture 10 Russian POWs in Kursk
🎦 02:24-03:26⏩
Ukrainian airborne assault troops captured 10 Russian soldiers in the Kursk direction. Jonathan highlighted this as good news for Ukraine, as capturing POWs typically indicates offensive actions, unlike defensive operations where Russians are unlikely to surrender. He presumed these were special forces performing smaller, probing attacks.
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Syrskyi on Kursk Operations and Russian Fibre Optic Drone Advantage
🎦 03:27-05:15⏩
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirmed that Ukrainian operations in the Kursk direction are ongoing. He claimed that these actions are forcing Russia to keep its best units in Kursk, preventing them from being deployed to the east, which was a key objective of the Kursk invasion. Syrskyi also noted Russia's advantage in using fibre optic drones, which significantly complicates the fight against them. Jonathan displayed an image of a field covered in fibre optic drone threads, illustrating the extensive cleanup efforts that will be needed post-war, likening trees covered in these cables to "Christmas trees covered in tinsel."
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Russian Army Recruiting Foreign Mercenaries from Multiple Nations
🎦 05:16-08:15⏩
Jonathan discussed reports from MAKS24 indicating that Russian units include foreign fighters from diverse nations, such as Chinese, Iranians, Kenyans, Colombians (previously often seen fighting for Ukraine), Ghanaians, Egyptians, and Bangladeshis. He expressed concern that Russia is sustaining recruitment by attracting foreign mercenaries, especially those in desperate situations, offering them attractive financial incentives. Jonathan noted that Russia likely finds it easier to recruit foreign troops than Russian ones, as they have cycled through many domestic volunteers and can offer foreign fighters far less in terms of compensation and benefits, without impacting their own economy or labour market.
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Ukraine Developing Motorbike Units to Counter Russian Drone Tactics
🎦 08:16-09:24⏩
Jonathan, referencing Christopher Miller from the Financial Times, reported that Ukrainian assault regiments are now utilising two-wheeled motorbikes to outmanoeuvre Russian drones. He explained that both sides, particularly Russia initially, were forced to adopt these units due to a lack of traditional combat assets like APCs and IFVs. However, they discovered that motorbikes offer a significant advantage for rapid movement, leading to their increased adoption by both sides, which presents a new challenge for the Ukrainians.
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Advanced Drone Warfare: Interceptions and Heavy Drones
🎦 09:25-12:28⏩
Jonathan shared interesting footage of a Ukrainian interceptor drone taking down a Russian Privy-82 Kamikaze drone, filmed from a third-party drone's perspective. He observed that the Ukrainian drone appeared to cause a "remote explosion" just above the target, leading to its destruction. He then highlighted the increasing use of heavy drones, such as a large hexacopter (Baba Yaga drone), which are now effectively replacing artillery and aviation in various combat roles, including bombing and potentially intercepting other drones and missiles. This signifies a major shift towards unmanned systems on the battlefield.
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Targeting Drone Operators and Manufacturing Facilities
🎦 12:29-15:58⏩
Jonathan reported on a Ukrainian MiG-29 destroying a group of enemy drone operators, suggesting that drone crews are becoming primary targets in frontline areas. He opined that drone manufacturing facilities should be the main target for long-range strikes, particularly since there appears to be an "unwritten agreement" between Ukraine and Russia not to target each other's energy infrastructure. He explained that reconnaissance drones can locate operator positions, and it is often more effective to use guided glide bombs (such as GBUs or HAMMERs) to flatten buildings housing these operators rather than FPV drones.
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Ukraine's F-16s to Integrate with NATO Military Wi-Fi (CSI & Link 16)
🎦 15:59-16:54⏩
Jonathan shared significant news (which he noted would be covered in more detail in his military aid video) that Ukrainian F-16s will connect to NATO military Wi-Fi. The Ministry of Defence signed an agreement on a CRC System Interface (CSI), a NATO military control system and Link 16. According to MAKS24, this integration will allow F-16s, Mirage 2000s, and air defence systems to coordinate actions, significantly expanding their operational range and improving air defence capabilities, potentially with the involvement of Swedish AWACS aircraft. Jonathan, however, cautioned that MAKS24 is not always 100% accurate.
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Ukrainian Sabotage and Long-Range Strikes in Russia (Including Vladivostok)
🎦 16:55-18:37⏩,24:17-25:51⏩
Jonathan reported on several incidents within Russia:
- A locomotive depot near Kursk caught fire, covering 2,000 square metres, which he suggested could be sabotage or a strike.
- Ukraine claimed responsibility for a strike in Vladivostok, approximately 9,000 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, hitting a Russian military camp and a checkpoint in Bukhta Desantnya Bay. Given the extreme distance, Jonathan believes this was likely a successful partisan sabotage operation rather than a long-range missile strike. High police and FSB activity, along with helicopter surveillance, were reported in the area.
- In the temporarily occupied Melitopol district, Ukrainian partisans successfully blew up a train carrying goods and fuel tanks en route to Crimea. Jonathan noted the ambiguity regarding the extent of the damage (e.g., whether only the locomotive or the entire train was destroyed).
Russian Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes on Ukraine, Including Deliberate Civilian Targeting
🎦 18:38-22:40⏩
Russia launched 109 drones, of which only 69 were intercepted (39 shot down, 30 by electronic warfare), meaning 40 drones (37%) got through. Jonathan reiterated his theory (supported by Tim White) that the lower interception rate is because Russia is increasingly targeting areas closer to the frontline (e.g., Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk), leaving Ukrainian air defences only minutes to respond. Additionally, two S-300 missiles (used in ground attack mode and difficult to intercept) and three Kh-59 missiles were used, with one Kh-59 being shot down. The Donbas semicircle (Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Siversk) was heavily battered by these strikes. In Sumy region, Russian forces were reported by NOL to be deliberately targeting civilians to "spread panic," with a drone striking a bread delivery vehicle and five more hitting a farm in Romney. Jonathan condemned these actions, stating, "Russians do what Russians do, unfortunately," in their "pure liberation ideology" of flattening towns.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Military Positions in Kursk Region
🎦 22:41-24:16⏩
Ukrainian forces conducted strikes in Rylsk and Lugov in the Kursk region, areas previously used as staging grounds for Russian defences. Explosions were reported overnight, likely targeting Russian military positions. Local channels claimed "lots of casualties" among Russian servicemen, though the Ukrainian General Staff has not yet commented. Russian authorities in Kursk confirmed 10 civilian injuries in Rylsk but did not confirm whether a hotel housing troops was hit, only claiming two five-story apartments were badly damaged. Jonathan speculated that these could be successful strikes against troop accumulations or command posts.
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Syrskyi on 58 Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes in Russia in May
🎦 25:52-27:15⏩
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian long-range drones struck 58 targets within Russia in May. He stated that military facilities were hit, undermining the capabilities of Russia's military-industrial complex. Targets included facilities for the production of explosives and strike drones. Jonathan reiterated his earlier point about the "unwritten agreement" between Ukraine and Russia not to target each other's energy infrastructure, noting that the Ukrainians have therefore focused on other strategic targets.
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Russian Army Unit Appeals Over Unpaid Wages
🎦 27:16-28:05⏩
Jonathan highlighted a video appeal from a Russian army unit to the Russian public and officials, stating they are no longer being paid and their families back home have bills to pay. He noted that while such appeals have appeared throughout the war, it's been some time since an entire unit collectively released one. Jonathan expressed concern for the individual delivering the message, anticipating potential punishment, but underlined that this indicates persistent issues within the Russian army regarding their treatment and payment of troops.
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Ukraine Building Impenetrable "Donbas Line" Defensive Fortifications
🎦 28:06-30:41⏩
Jonathan discussed Ukrainian officer Osman's confirmation of the methods for building truly impenetrable defensive lines, outlining elements such as anti-tank ditches with barbed wire, 10-meter spaced barbed wire fields, infantry trenches with dugouts (built without uprooting trees for camouflage), and special dugouts for drone crews. He then showed a map illustrating the new 350-kilometre "Donbas Line" being constructed by Ukraine, stretching from Kharkiv to the Zaporizhia region, far behind the current front lines. Jonathan acknowledged that this should perhaps have been done in 2022/2023 but welcomed the effort, stating it could prevent Russia from achieving more maximal objectives.
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Putin's Staged Drone Attack in Kursk to Bolster Image
🎦 30:42-32:01⏩
Jonathan addressed the Russian MOD's claim that Putin was at the "epicentre of a drone attack" in Kursk. Citing the Moscow Times, he revealed this was a staged Kremlin production designed to convince Russians that their president is not hiding, but rather "sharing dangers with the country." This "television show" was created against a backdrop of regular drone strikes and domestic chaos, contrasting Putin's manufactured risks with Zelenskyy's genuine proximity to frontline dangers, though noting Zelenskyy has recently been less exposed.
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Mandatory Evacuations in Sumy Amid Russian Troop Buildup and Intensified Offensives
🎦 32:02-33:17⏩
Ukraine ordered mandatory evacuations from 11 additional villages in Sumy Oblast due to a Russian troop buildup there, which Governor Oleg Kirov described as "Russia continues its terror of the borderlands, and our shared task is to save every life." Jonathan noted that Sumy and Kharkiv areas appear very vulnerable. Furthermore, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a significant intensification of Russian offensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction, confirming active measures to stabilise Ukrainian defences by strengthening threatened areas with reserves. This highlights widespread and intense pressure across multiple sectors of the front, including Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar, and movements towards the Dnipropetrovsk region.
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Ukraine Defaults on Growth-Linked Debt & Russia's Continued Hydrocarbon Revenues
🎦 33:18-36:18⏩
Bloomberg reported that Ukraine will miss a $665 million payment on growth-linked debt (GDP options) after failing to reach a debt restructuring agreement with creditors, effectively defaulting on those bonds. This is negative financial news for Ukraine. Jonathan also discussed Russia's continued financial gains, having earned €883 billion from oil and gas exports since the full-scale invasion, including €228 billion from countries that have imposed sanctions (such as EU members like Hungary and Slovakia, and Belgium from LNG). Jonathan acknowledged the complexity for European nations to cease buying cheap Russian hydrocarbons immediately, as it would cause massive energy inflation and logistical challenges. He emphasised that while Europe is working on a formal plan to end Russian hydrocarbon dependence, it's a gradual process due to existing contracts, infrastructure needs, and domestic economic concerns. He urged a quicker transition, citing Germany's success in this regard.
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Wall Street Journal Theory: Russia's Economy Trapped by War
🎦 36:19-38:17⏩
Jonathan presented a theory from the Wall Street Journal, expounded by Timofey Milovanov, that Putin has created an economy so dependent on military production that peace would threaten Russia's economic stability, effectively trapping him in a perpetual conflict. Russia's arms industry has received billions in stimulus, boosting wages and living standards in poorer regions and creating the largest wealth redistribution since the fall of the Soviet Union. Over 1,000 people sign up for military service daily, receiving bonuses equivalent to a year's salary. Moscow's unwillingness to engage in peace negotiations is partly attributed to the economic and social risks of demobilising hundreds of thousands of troops (many with short-term contracts and PTSD), as "it's not a good idea for the state to disappoint armed men." Unlike post-WWII America, Russia's defence industry is unlikely to drive sustained peacetime growth, reinforcing the idea that continued war is in Putin's best economic interest.
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Russia Using Chinese Low-Altitude Laser Defence System (LAS) in Ukraine
🎦 38:18-39:52⏩
Jonathan shared footage from Russian sources allegedly showing the operational use of a Chinese low-altitude laser defence system (LAS) to shoot down Ukrainian drones in a combat zone. He highlighted this as the first documented visual evidence of Chinese military hardware being used in Ukraine, calling it a "massive worry." Jonathan questioned what actions would be taken in response and suggested that such evidence of China directly aiding Russia might influence figures like Donald Trump to be more supportive of Ukraine and more anti-Russia, likening it to the clear "bad guy" status of North Korea.
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Heart-warming Dog Rescue Near the Frontline
🎦 39:53-41:45⏩
Jonathan concluded the news update with a positive and heart-warming video showing individuals rescuing a dog near the frontline, specifically crediting "vet.crew / animals in Ukraine" for their efforts. He highlighted the importance of such humanitarian work amidst the conflict.
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Wrap up
🎦 41:45-42:01⏩
Jonathan thanked the viewers and encouraged them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He announced that he would be releasing a military aid video shortly after.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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