Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231027a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"It's reprehensible to think that about that you would execute your own soldiers because they didn't want to follow orders and now threatening to execute entire units it's barbaric"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting 560 personnel lost which is lower than the previous week but still significant. Equipment losses are also down but remain considerable, particularly 11 APVs. Pro-Ukrainian mapper Andrew Perpetua's figures show a 4-5:1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Deserters
A Guardian article discusses Russian soldiers deserting with the help of a Georgia-based anti-war group. The group's founder claims to have helped over 500 soldiers desert so far. Russian court data shows a significant increase in criminal cases against soldiers abandoning their units in 2023 compared to previous years. Deserters are calling on their former comrades to join them.
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Russia Executing Soldiers
The White House claims Russia is executing soldiers who fail to follow orders and threatening entire units with death for retreating. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby called it "barbaric" and a symptom of Russia's poor military leadership and performance.
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Russian Losses in Avdiivka
Return to top⤴️Russia is suffering significant losses and low morale due to attacks in Avdiivka. The ISW reports Ukrainian estimates of 5,000 Russian personnel killed and wounded and 400 armoured vehicle losses near Avdiivka and Marinka since October 10th. Satellite imagery confirms at least 109 Russian military vehicles lost. Heavy equipment losses will likely undermine Russia's long-term offensive capabilities as they struggle to offset them, similar to after losses in Vuhledar earlier in 2023.
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Russian Minesweeper Damaged
A Russian minesweeper, the Vladimir Kotsitsky, was reportedly damaged near Sevastopol with smoke pouring from the engine room. It was likely hit by a Ukrainian maritime drone, either a torpedo-style one or possibly a "sea baby" drone. This type of Ukrainian activity renders the Russian naval port of Sevastopol less effective.
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Other News
- Footage shows a JDAM strike destroying a Russian warehouse with electronic warfare equipment in Zaporizhzhia. More JDAM usage by Ukraine is needed.
- A fire at a thermal power plant in Moscow caused a gas pipeline to ignite and concrete structures to collapse.
- Ukrainian partisans conducted a sabotage attack on a railway relay box in Luhansk, causing delays on a line Russia uses to transport weapons.
Distant Strikes
The UK intelligence update notes Russia's long-range aviation fleet has not conducted cruise missile strikes into Ukraine for over a month, likely to replenish diminishing stockpiles. Russia will probably use any newly produced missiles to strike Ukrainian infrastructure over the winter, supplemented by Iranian drones. Overnight, Russia used 6 drones with 2 shot down near Voznesensk. A solar power plant may have been targeted. The US struck Iranian drone facilities in Syria in response to attacks on American bases there, which could impact drone supplies to Russia.
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ATACMS Usage
Despite Russian claims of shooting down ATACMS missiles, experts say the evidence shows ATACMS breaking apart as designed rather than being intercepted. New footage suggests an ATACMS strike in Novaya Kakhovka, possibly hitting a training base or even destroying three S-400 anti-aircraft systems according to some Russian sources. More evidence of ATACMS usage is emerging beyond the initial five seen striking airbases.
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Other Updates
- A poll shows increased trust in the Ukrainian government and President Zelensky after the full-scale invasion, with 73% trusting Zelensky and over 50% the government. Some suggest now could be a good time for Zelensky to seek re-election.
- The US believes Russia retains some offensive potential and may attack again in the coming months, even as they face setbacks and heavy losses in Avdiivka. Ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts may provide enough troops for further offensives.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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