Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Massive Russian Strikes
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"They attempt to herd people into vulnerable positions, cause them to panic and then drop bombs on them. It is common to hear that people snap from distress and begin to act erratically, walking out into open fire... It's actually targeted murder."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine war news update for the 17th of November 2024. He describes an incredibly busy night in Ukraine, with record-breaking strikes across the country—the biggest attack since August. Jonathan predicted this massive wave, anticipating a significant escalation in Russian missile attacks after a period of relative quiet.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Record Russian Losses
🎦 01:14-04:47⏩
- Jonathan dives into the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, emphasizing the usual caveats (found in the video description) and noting large numbers across several categories.
- Personnel: 1,640 Russian personnel lost (a huge number, consistent with the trend of the past week). Jonathan cites record seven-day rolling averages for personnel losses, suggesting substantial difficulties for the Russians.
- Tanks: 12 tanks lost (above the daily average).
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles: 27 troop-carrying AFVs lost (also above the daily average).
- Artillery Systems: 36 artillery systems lost.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 85 lost, reflecting very heavy losses in this category and indicative of the equipment being actively used in attacks.
- Jonathan highlights a Twitter comment from 'Special Kherson Cat' observing that an entire Russian assault group is using only unarmoured civilian vehicles, a tactic they've never seen before.
- This lack of armoured vehicles is concerning, with viewers suggesting Russia may soon resort to pushing for negotiations.
- However, reports of North Korea supplying Russia with 50 self-propelled howitzers and 20 multiple-launch rocket systems indicate Russia may not be on the verge of collapse.
- Jonathan expresses frustration with this development as it hinders Ukraine's progress.
- He shares insights from various sources:
- Ragnar Yatov Gudmundsson's analysis shows a 22% increase in casualties over the previous week, a new record.
- Yakov Yanovsky from Oryx reports a 2.9:1 ratio of Russian equipment losses to Ukrainian losses (basically a 3:1 ratio), higher than the 30-day rolling average of 2.5:1.
Oryx: Detailed Visual Confirmation of Losses - 12th & 13th of November
🎦 04:47-14:09⏩
- Jonathan analyzes detailed, visually confirmed loss data from Oryx (maintained by Stijn Mitzer), acknowledging delays in Oryx's updates due to the volume of footage.
- He begins with Ukrainian losses:
- A few AHS Krab self-propelled howitzers lost.
- Six tanks lost (most damaged, including an M1 Abrams; the rest Soviet-era).
- Seven infantry fighting vehicles lost.
- Six Bradley's lost (three abandoned, three damaged), highlighting that although these losses are significant, they indicate Ukraine is deploying these valuable assets instead of relying on less effective equipment.
- Four MRAPs, Kozaks, Kirpys, and MaxxPros lost (all abandoned).
- Two APCs lost (one destroyed).
- Jonathan then examines the more substantial Russian losses:
- A Strela-10M air defense system lost.
- A couple of boats lost.
- A BM-21 multiple-launch rocket system destroyed.
- Various artillery pieces lost.
- Twenty tanks lost, including T-80s and T-72s (roughly half abandoned and destroyed).
- Around twenty fighting vehicles lost, over half damaged.
- Eight ATCs lost (mostly destroyed, mainly MTLBs).
- Numerous trucks, ATVs, four-wheelers, buggies, golf carts, motorcycles lost, emphasizing that the types of vehicles Russians are attacking with are increasingly appearing on the loss list.
- Jonathan points out a significant spike in visually confirmed human deaths recorded by Oryx, rising to 122 on the 13th of November, which aligns with the increased figures reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. He stresses that this correlation provides further evidence for the accuracy of the Ukrainian General Staff's trend reporting.
- Jonathan strongly defends the credibility of the Ukrainian General Staff figures, arguing that after two and a half years of data analysis, there's enough evidence to have faith in their reports.
- He continues to delve deeper into Oryx's visually confirmed loss data for the 13th of November, noting:
- One Ukrainian artillery piece lost.
- Nine Ukrainian tanks lost, including an abandoned Leopard 2A4 and a damaged Challenger 2 (the first time a damaged Challenger has been reported).
- A damaged Leopard 2A4, demonstrating that modern Western tanks are now appearing on the lost lists.
- Another batch of Bradleys lost, a setback for Ukraine.
- Roughly six BMPs and other infantry fighting vehicles lost.
- Western-provided APCs lost, including VABs (French), Senators (Canadian), and Strikers (American).
- A couple of MRAPs lost.
- Jonathan then focuses on the extensive Russian losses for the 13th of November:
- Tremendous losses in civilian vehicles.
- An air defense system and a 1L122 Garmon radar destroyed.
- An old M-46 (D-30) artillery piece and a BM-21 Grad rocket system destroyed, with another Grad damaged.
- A substantial number of tanks, including a T-90A (one of Russia's most modern tanks, though not the most modern variant, the T-90M).
- A remarkable number of infantry fighting vehicles lost, with Jonathan initially struggling to believe the figure of 50 (between rows 60-100 of the spreadsheet). He expresses astonishment at this massive visually confirmed loss.
- Half a dozen ATVs lost.
- Jonathan concludes this analysis by emphasizing that over two days, visually confirmed losses reveal a staggering 62 Russian infantry fighting vehicles destroyed, a testament to the scale of the conflict.
- He reiterates his point about the ongoing situation:
- Russia is losing enormous amounts of equipment and personnel.
- However, Ukraine desperately needs more troops on the ground to effectively halt Russia's territorial gains.
- Jonathan underscores the importance of these visually confirmed losses as concrete evidence of the war's high cost and highlights the links to the source data sheet in the video description.
Reports from Kursk: Russia Attacking with Civilian Vehicles
🎦 14:09-14:58⏩
- Jonathan cites reports from Sean Pinner, who suggests that due to heavy vehicle losses, Russian forces around Kursk are now resorting to using civilian vehicles for assault positions, resulting in significant casualties. This is a clear sign of Russia's dwindling military resources.
- He describes this as a desperate measure where troops are essentially 'purged off like cattle' from trucks, a far cry from the typical infantry fighting vehicle assault tactics.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Targets: Tor Air Defence System and Troop Concentration
🎦 14:58-16:19⏩
- Jonathan reports on a 'Baba Yaga' drone strike hitting a Russian Tor air defense system, showcasing Ukraine's effective use of drone technology.
- He then showcases drone footage of a devastating Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a large Russian troop concentration in the village of Tavria in the Zaporizhzhia region, noting the use of both unitary warheads and a cluster munition. This successful operation highlights Ukraine's precision targeting capabilities and effective use of advanced weaponry.
- Jonathan credits the 15th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade for this strike.
Russian Atrocities: Drones Terrorizing Civilians and Animals
🎦 16:19-18:28⏩
- Jonathan shares a chilling report from Andrew Perpetua about the increasingly brutal tactics being employed by Russian forces:
- They are using drones to terrorize civilians, herding them into vulnerable positions, causing panic, and then dropping bombs on them.
- This terror extends to animals as well.
- Jonathan expresses his disgust at these actions, describing them as 'targeted murder'.
- He extends his criticism to those who support Russia's actions, particularly referencing individuals associated with Donald Trump at a Mike Tyson fight, whom he labels as pro-Russian and morally reprehensible.
Ukrainian Partisans: Sabotaging Russian Supply Lines
🎦 18:28-18:52⏩
- Jonathan reports that the Atesh partisan group sabotaged a key railway line in Oleshky in the Kherson region, targeting electrical equipment and disrupting Russia's military supply chain.
- This sabotage action, planned for November 16th, demonstrates the continued resistance efforts within Russian-occupied territory and the ongoing challenges to Russia's logistical capabilities.
Massive Russian Missile and Drone Strikes: Ukraine's Air Defences Intercept Most Threats
🎦 18:52-29:27⏩
- Jonathan dives into the massive Russian missile and drone strikes that occurred overnight:
- The Ukrainian air defenses, despite the scale of the attack, prevented a complete catastrophe, shooting down a significant number of threats.
- Jonathan details the interception numbers:
- One out of one Zircon hypersonic cruise missile shot down.
- Seven out of eight Kinzhal hypersonic missiles (considered Russia's most advanced) shot down.
- 85 out of 101 Kalibr cruise missiles intercepted. This suggests that Russia might be deploying them from the Black Sea Fleet, as Jonathan hadn't seen Kalibr missiles used for an extended period.
- Four out of four Kh-22/Kh-31P (cruise/anti-radar missiles) taken out.
- Five out of five Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles intercepted.
- 42 out of 90 Shahed drones intercepted.
- Jonathan questions whether the remaining drone interceptions include those taken down by electronic warfare. He then cites a different source, Flash News, which claims Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 144 aerial targets in total.
- This leads to a breakdown of the attack:
- Russia launched approximately 210 projectiles (120 missiles and 90 drones).
- Based on Flash News' report, Ukraine intercepted 102 missiles and 42 drones.
- Adding the 41 enemy drones lost in various regions due to the active countermeasures of the Ukrainian Air Defence Forces, the total number of intercepted targets reaches 185 out of 210.
- Jonathan expresses astonishment at Ukraine's successful interception rate.
- He discusses news coverage of the strikes, noting that it was front-page news globally, highlighting the attack's significance.
- Jonathan mentions specific areas impacted:
- Residential areas of Kharkiv.
- Dnipro and Kherson.
- Kyiv (heavily targeted).
- Odesa (hit with Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea Fleet).
- Mykolaiv (targeted by KH-101 missiles).
- Areas just south of Poltava (targeted by Kinzhal missiles).
- Kropyvnytskyi.
- Jonathan points out the increasing use of Kinzhal missiles and the appearance of cruise missiles, reminiscent of the early stages of the war in 2022.
- He highlights the targeting of thermal power plants as winter temperatures drop, noting severe damage to a DTEK thermal power plant (a private energy concern that plays a significant role in Ukraine's energy grid). However, no casualties have been reported.
- Jonathan shares footage of the damage in Mykolaiv, praising Ukraine's efforts in intercepting numerous aerial threats.
- He then contrasts this with the Russian news agency RIA Novosti's claim of destroying a drone workshop in Mykolaiv, allegedly killing 12 Ukrainian servicemen and injuring others.
- Jonathan expresses skepticism about the Russian claims, noting the lack of evidence and highlighting that the previous day's reports from Mykolaiv indicated no injuries from the strike.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Military Industrial Complex in Lipetsk
🎦 29:27-29:48⏩
- Jonathan reports that Ukrainian drones targeted the Russian city of Lipetsk, specifically hitting the Tupolev plant that produces aircraft components for the Russian military. This strike disrupts Russia's military industrial complex.
Ukraine's Long-Range Missile Production: Need for Increased Output
🎦 29:48-31:11⏩
- Jonathan discusses reports suggesting that Ukraine can now produce 10-15 long-range missiles per month with assistance from the US military.
- He expresses his personal opinion that this production rate is far too low, three years into the war, and emphasizes that the West should prioritize helping Ukraine build up its capacity for long-range missile strikes at scale.
- He argues that if Western weapons can't be used for such strikes, supporting domestic production in Ukraine is crucial.
- Jonathan criticizes the inadequacy of 10-15 missiles per month, comparing it to the much higher number of long-range missiles Russia typically fires daily.
- He highlights the stark asymmetry in long-range missile capabilities, urging for a solution to this imbalance.
Russia: Leadership Purge Within the 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army
🎦 31:11-33:47⏩
- Jonathan delves into reports of a large-scale leadership purge within Russia's 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army, first mentioned in the previous night's Frontline update.
- He details the reported changes:
- The entire command staff of the 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army has been fired.
- Commanders of the 7th and 12th Guards Tank Regiments have been arrested.
- Numerous brigade commanders and lower-level commanders have also lost their positions.
- Jonathan attributes this purge to the inadequate and failed actions of the 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army in the Kharkiv region.
- He suggests that concealing losses and misrepresenting the real situation to higher command are primary reasons for these arrests and dismissals.
- Jonathan delves into the systemic issue of 'bullshit' reports within the Russian military hierarchy:
- Subordinates often provide fabricated or overly optimistic reports to their superiors to avoid repercussions.
- This misinformation travels up the chain of command, with each level potentially embellishing the reports further.
- Eventually, this false information reaches the top, potentially influencing strategic decisions.
- He uses the example of the initial stages of the war, suggesting that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was likely based on inaccurate information provided by his military leaders.
- Jonathan argues that this chain of 'bullshit' is breaking down, with higher command starting to believe these inaccurate reports.
- He posits that this lack of reliable information may contribute to Russia's ongoing military struggles and their inability to accurately assess the situation in Ukraine.
Discrepancies in Mapping: Russian Deception and Misinformation
🎦 33:47-35:27⏩
- Jonathan continues discussing the issue of misinformation within the Russian military, focusing on discrepancies in mapping and reports of captured territory.
- He specifically mentions the village of Vil’na Kharkivska (Donetsk Oblast), where significant differences exist between Andrew Perpetua's mapping and Suriyak Maps:
- Suriyak Maps, relying heavily on Russian Ministry of Defence statements, often prematurely declares Russian control over areas still contested.
- These statements, often based on exaggerated claims from commanders on the ground, contribute to a system where appearances are prioritized over reality.
- Jonathan acknowledges that while Suriyak Maps can appear ahead of the curve, its accuracy is often questionable, as Russia's eventual capture of areas doesn't necessarily validate their initial claims.
- He emphasizes his preference for Andrew Perpetua's more cautious mapping, which relies on verified information and acknowledges contested areas as gray zones.
- Jonathan emphasizes that despite showing both maps, he encourages viewers to critically evaluate the information presented.
- He highlights another area of discrepancy in mapping:
- The area around Spirne in eastern Ukraine, where Suriyak Maps shows full Russian control while Perpetua's map depicts a more nuanced situation.
- This example further demonstrates the ongoing issue of misinformation within the Russian military and the importance of relying on credible sources for accurate battlefield assessments.
North Korea Supplies Russia: Howitzers and Rocket Systems
🎦 35:27-36:11⏩
- Jonathan reiterates the news of North Korea supplying Moscow with long-range rocket and artillery systems.
- He provides further details on the equipment:
- 50 Koksan M1989 self-propelled howitzers.
- 20 multiple-launch rocket systems.
- These supplies, now deployed to the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, represent a concerning development.
- Jonathan expresses concern that North Korea could become a significant source of military equipment for Russia, potentially prolonging the conflict. He views this as demoralizing for Ukrainians, who had hoped to see Russia's resources dwindle.
Russia: Railway Overloads and Potential Economic Collapse
🎦 36:11-38:41⏩
- Jonathan reveals a potentially significant sign of strain on Russia's infrastructure:
- Russian Railways has halted cargo transportation to the Yetino terminal in the Moscow region for ten days (from November 12th to 23rd) due to severe overload.
- This overload also affects another large terminal, Alekseevka.
- The issue, according to Jonathan, is not a lack of goods to transport but an overloaded network. This could indicate:
- Shortages in rolling stock and locomotives.
- Maintenance problems.
- Years of underfunding for the railway system.
- Jonathan then discusses a Twitter thread from Yevgen, an expert on the Russian economy, who highlights alarming trends in the Russian construction market:
- Banks have raised mortgage rates to 28-30%.
- Major developers are ending their subsidy and installment programs.
- The market for corporate shares and developer bonds is becoming increasingly risky.
- Yevgen suggests that this combination of factors could lead to the collapse of large developers, triggering a cascading effect of panic across the entire construction sector.
- Jonathan connects this to previous reports of collapses affecting the first and third biggest property developers in Russia, with the second largest developer potentially on the brink of collapse as well.
- He concludes by highlighting the numerous problems plaguing the Russian economy.
Russia: Refinery Shutdowns and Potential Fuel Shortages
🎦 38:41-39:18⏩
- Jonathan raises concerns about Russia's oil refining capacity:
- Three major refineries are currently unable to operate.
- Reasons for these shutdowns include:
- Sanctions impacting the availability of necessary parts.
- General mismanagement.
- Jonathan warns that these shutdowns could lead to fuel shortages in Russia, further straining their resources.
Global Anti-War Marches Led by Russian Opposition
🎦 39:18-40:37⏩
- Jonathan discusses upcoming anti-war marches planned for Berlin and various cities around the world.
- He clarifies that these marches are not the typical pro-Russian appeasement demonstrations often seen in the US, led by figures like Tulsi Gabbard, Russell Brand, and Jordan Peterson, who call for an end to the war without addressing the underlying aggression.
- Instead, these marches are organized by Russian opposition leaders who have fled the country and actively oppose the Kremlin regime.
- Jonathan highlights a crucial detail about the protests:
- The use of blue and white flags representing an independent Russia.
- Expressions of support for Ukraine.
- A clear rejection of an unjust peace.
- He emphasizes that these marches represent a genuine movement within Russia for peace and justice, distinguishing them from the pro-Russian appeasement narrative prevalent in some Western circles.
Wrap up
🎦 40:37-40:43⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, expresses gratitude for their support, acknowledges the gravity of the day's news, and signs off, promising to see everyone soon.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
At timestamp 11:18 Jonathan says "I don't know the 1L122 harmony." Could you clarify what this refers to?
At timestamp 24:09 Jonathan says "What are the kinds of arms like?" Could you please clarify what he means and what "arms" he's referring to?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a lengthy and complex transcript, so I need to break it down methodically to ensure I complete the tasks effectively and accurately.
Step 1: Extract Title, Date, and Part:
I will identify the video title, date, and part using the provided YouTube title. I will carefully remove the date and part from the title to ensure the remaining title accurately reflects the video content. I need to remember to format the date in the DD/MM/YYYY format as this is the standard in the UK.
Step 2: Identify Topic Titles:
This step requires careful consideration of the flow of conversation and the points being discussed. I need to create concise and specific topic titles that accurately reflect the content being discussed within each timeframe. This means I need to look at the context and consider the types of information Jonathan provides for each subject (e.g., types of military aid, specific location names, etc.). It's also important to avoid vague or general topic titles that could encompass multiple different points being discussed.
Step 3: Determine Topic Timeframes:
This step involves carefully mapping out the timestamps for each identified topic. I will match the 'id' attribute with the corresponding 'topictitle' to ensure accurate tracking of each topic segment. This step allows for double-checking the topic titles and ensuring that they cover the entire video transcript without gaps or overlaps.
Step 4: Write Topic Summaries:
This is a crucial step where I must succinctly summarise the key points of each topic while ensuring sufficient context. I will use bullet points to make the summaries easy to read. Jonathan's insights, analysis, opinions, and sources are particularly important to include in these summaries as his viewers value these aspects of his content. I will strive to convey Jonathan's passion and personality, which is a significant part of his channel's appeal, without adding any information not present in the transcript.
Step 5: Select a Quote:
I will carefully select a quote from the transcript that is either particularly significant, insightful, thought-provoking, or humorous. It's essential to choose a quote that makes sense out of context and effectively represents Jonathan's unique voice and perspective.
Step 6: Record Queries:
I will honestly report any aspects of the transcript or tasks that I didn't understand. This includes any unclear terminology, potentially misheard words, or any points where the context is ambiguous. My queries will help improve the accuracy and clarity of future transcripts.
By carefully following these steps, I will produce a well-structured and informative summary of the video transcript, effectively capturing the essence of Jonathan's content for viewers with limited time.
