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Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

Front Line Thursday, 16th November 2023, 14:48
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"The Russians are not going to want, obviously not going to want to let the Ukrainians get a serious bridgehead to allow them to start making these moves towards Crimea or in some kind of pincer movement with what's going on in Robotina."

Hello Team!

  • Jonathan provides an update on the frontline situation in Ukraine as of 16th November 2023
  • The key to the map is shown on screen. JR has updated the Brody-Afric fortification lines from pastel yellow to dark red.


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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeastern Sector (Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna)

  • Minor Russian gains around northern Volodymyrivka and northern Brest, northwest of Svatova
  • Russians made gains along a 4km wide part of the frontline, pushing inwards slightly
  • ISW reports repelled attacks at many positions like Liman Peshi, Makivka, Sinkivka, Nadia, Serebiansky Forest, indicating an active frontline


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Bakhmut Area

  • Minor Russian gains north of Bakhmut in the Dubovo-Vasilyevka area according to Syriac maps
  • Russian VDV elements attempting to regain lost positions and advance 500m south of Bakivka
  • Russian bloggers claim advances in forest areas near Klishchivka and a foothold on the northern outskirts
  • Both sides are fighting for control of key heights near Klishchivka
  • Minor Ukrainian gains east of Andreevka according to Andrew Perpetua


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Between Avdiivka and Bakhmut (Holivka)

  • Ukrainians made gains at the northwest of Holivka, crossing the 2014 line
  • Russians claim they repelled a breakthrough attempt at Holivka
  • Geolocated video shows Ukrainian positions on the Russian defensive lines
  • Andrew Perpetua notes Ukrainian gains, possibly pushing Russians back by around 1km


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Avdiivka

  • Significant Russian gains around the city, particularly to the north and east near Krasnohorivka
  • Russians made gains southeast of Terokon waste heap and near Vesele towards Kamyanka
  • ISW reports 60% of the industrial area south of Avdiivka seized by Russians
  • Russian blogger claims no direct attacks on Avdiivka or coke plant yet
  • Noah Report's map shows large gap in Russian defensive line compared to other maps


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Southern Frontline (Velyka Novosilka)

  • Relatively quiet over the past 6 weeks but some recent activity
  • A Russian armoured column was reportedly destroyed by the 58th Motorized Brigade near Staromonivka
  • No territorial changes in the area


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Zaporizhzhia (Robotyne)

  • ISW reports Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhzhia but counter-attacks by Russians
  • Russian sources claim repelled Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne, Kopani, Vobove and Novofedorivka
  • Fighting west of Robotyne is largely direct infantry contact according to Russian blogger
  • Bad weather impeding offensive operations
  • Russian blogger claims 700m advance in a forest near Robotyne and on outskirts of Pyatiketki between Nov 13-15
  • Ukrainians stepping up actions north of Novopropivka, minor improvements made, likely preparing new push


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Kherson Region

  • No map changes but ongoing conversations
  • Ukrainian spokesperson claims they are pushing Russians 3-8km from Dnipro east bank, but this is not confirmed by open source evidence
  • 8km would be a very significant gain, 3km is roughly the current frontline
  • Russians tried and failed to dislodge Ukrainians from Krinky
  • Ukrainians reportedly advanced slightly westward towards Kozachi Lahiri based on Russian reports
  • Unconfirmed Ukrainian reports of trying to expand to Korsanka
  • Geolocated footage shows Russian advances into Krinky
  • Russian military observer outlines likely Russian plan to eliminate Ukrainian east bank positions with 3 tactical groups
  • Russians employing heavy mines, infiltration tactics, snipers, heavy artillery, MLRS and airstrikes to defend against Ukrainian advances


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Wrap up

Jonathan summarises:

  • Mixed bag for both sides
  • Russians still pressuring Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kupyansk line
  • Good to see Ukrainian success around Andrivka and Holivka
  • All to play for on the Dnipro river, Russians appear to be stabilising the front somewhat


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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

The exact location of the reported destruction of a Russian armoured column near Staromonivka was unclear. The specific forest area near Robotyne where Russians claimed a 700m advance between Nov 13-15 was not specified.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Extract video title, date and part from the YouTube title Identify key topics discussed in order and create subheadings Summarise the content under each subheading, keeping the British English style Include any relevant quotes, opinions or insights from Jonathan Note anything that was unclear in the transcript Select the most profound or poignant quote for the video Review summary to ensure all key points are covered

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Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce, J.R. (Cartographer)

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos