Ukraine War Live Stream w/ Edward Hunter Christie - Unpicking Global Geopolitics
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Table of Contents 📖
"And I would rather see the likes of the UK, France, Italy, and others talk to their publics now and make the case for going from, say, 2% of GDP on defense to, let's say, 4%, which is still a peacetime level, but it's a high preparedness level, rather than having additional disasters."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:37⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and expresses excitement about today's guest, Edward Hunter Christie.
- Edward Hunter Christie is introduced as a Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and former NATO official.
- The discussion was initially planned to cover the war in general, geopolitics, the US, EU, Europe, China, Ukraine and Russia.
- However, due to recent news from Jeddah regarding a potential truce, the conversation will likely focus on this first before moving to broader topics.
- Jonathan welcomes Edward and asks him to provide a more detailed introduction and his involvement in the Ukraine war.
Edward Hunter Christie Introduction and Atlanticist Perspective
🎦 00:37-02:27⏩
- Edward Hunter Christie introduces himself as a commentator on foreign and security policy, a think tanker and former NATO official.
- He describes his background at NATO as "less mysterious" than some might think.
- Edward highlights his background as a "convinced and passionate Atlanticist".
- He expresses "grave concern, if not outright horror" at the new US orientation and approach to the Russia-Ukraine war.
- He states that these are "ominous and difficult times" for Europeans in general.
Initial Thoughts on Jeddah Truce Talks
🎦 02:27-04:01⏩
- Jonathan describes the international diplomacy surrounding the war as uncertain, comparing it to both a "massive game of chess" and a chaotic "pigeon on the chessboard".
- He references news from Jeddah about US and Ukrainian bilateral talks regarding the war and a potential truce agreed in principle by Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes the involvement of Jonathan Powell, a UK political figure, in the Jeddah talks.
- He asks Edward for his initial thoughts on the Jeddah developments and their potential implications.
- Edward responds that as "outsiders" they lack the full picture, which is only available to those directly involved in the talks and key leaders.
- He notes the lengthy duration of the talks (around seven hours) compared to the brief official readouts.
Limited Public Knowledge and US Actions Preceding Jeddah Talks
🎦 04:01-05:29⏩
- Edward emphasizes the limited information available to the public regarding behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts, contrasting it with the relative transparency of the early stages of the war due to visible fighting and open-source information.
- He states that the current phase of diplomacy is "a lot more closed" and difficult for those supporting Ukraine to understand or influence.
- He highlights the need to focus on "the few things that we do know".
US Reduction of Support to Ukraine
🎦 05:29-07:29⏩
- Edward states that in the lead up to the Jeddah talks, the US "basically cut support to Ukraine in multiple ways".
- This began with civilian support, including the shutdown of USAID assistance for repairing Ukraine's electricity grid, a critical target of Russian attacks.
- Diplomatically, the US started to align its messaging with Russia.
- He points to a "shameful episode at the United Nations" where the US pressured Ukraine to withdraw a resolution marking the war's third anniversary and then voted against it.
- This resolution openly stated Russia as the aggressor, and the US vote aligned it with Russia, Belarus, and Nicaragua, while even Iran abstained.
- Edward describes this as "despicable from a moral perspective".
US Diplomatic Shift and Potential Motivations
🎦 07:29-09:08⏩
- Edward states that the "US diplomatic line has flipped" and now consistently promotes the message across various channels.
- He argues that the US is now essentially saying "Russia's not to blame for the war".
- He suggests the motivation is likely linked to Russia wanting to be "off the hook for reparation payments".
- By having the US publicly shift blame, Russia can argue against being held accountable for aggression.
- Edward suggests "visible" actions signal a deliberate message from Washington to Moscow, rebuilding trust and signaling a "reconciliation" and "new US-Russia relationship".
- This new relationship would be "completely different from what we had in the past" and "strategically ominous".
US Arms Twisting of Ukraine and Strategic Implications
🎦 09:08-12:34⏩
- Edward argues the US "arms twisted Ukraine" before the Jeddah talks.
- This involved suspending arms shipments, civilian aid and intelligence sharing.
- He mentions a rumour (unconfirmed) that intelligence sharing was cut off to the point where Russians knew the positions of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region.
- He states the US pressured Ukraine into a mineral deal and unilaterally committing to a ceasefire, even before Russian agreement.
- He highlights the ongoing Russian occupation of 20% of Ukrainian territory and the human cost of this occupation, including torture chambers and crimes in occupied areas like Mariupol.
- He warns against being "fooled by this label of peace" as a ceasefire would still leave Russia in control of occupied territories and unpunished for its actions.
- He claims that US policy signals a desire to "reward" Russia, referencing readouts from US-Russia meetings mentioning "geopolitical opportunities and economic opportunities".
- He concludes the Trump administration "wants to do business with Russia" which is a "terrible turnaround" and "despicable" as it normalises invasion and "bully boy tactics".
Zelensky's Position and Potential Benefits of a Truce
🎦 12:34-14:02⏩
- Jonathan asks if Zelensky has "played a blinder" by agreeing to a truce but potentially sidelining the minerals deal, preventing the peace from being contingent on it.
- He questions who benefits from a potential 30-day truce, assuming Russia adheres to it, and whether Zelensky was forced into this position.
- Edward believes Zelensky and Ukraine are "forced" due to "massive" US pressure.
Ukraine's Forced Position and US Strategy
🎦 14:02-15:29⏩
- Edward states Ukraine is in a "difficult position militarily" even without US pressure, describing the conflict as a "war of attrition" where Russia has a "net positive advantage".
- He believes the front line is moving westward and Ukraine faces a struggle, despite domestic Russian vulnerabilities.
- He argues maximum assistance from Europe and America could have turned the war around, and still could.
- He believes Trump is aware of this and is deliberately ensuring "Russia is not gonna lose this".
- Edward posits that "America cannot allow Russia to lose" and that saving lives is not a primary concern for Trump.
Trump's Calculation: A De Facto Russian Win and Strategic Reconciliation
🎦 15:29-17:30⏩
- Edward believes Trump cannot openly allow Russia to "steamroll over the whole of Ukraine" without a pretext.
- He suggests Trump has been seeking pretexts to allow Russia to take territory while constrained by America's image and allies, preventing him from being "100% pro-Russian".
- He argues Trump's "vicious calculation" is to give Russia a "genuine de facto practical win" by allowing them to keep conquered territories and improve their economy.
- He questions whether Russia will be "intelligent enough to take the win" being offered or will continue seeking to "destroy Ukraine completely".
- Edward believes Putin, acting rationally, would take a ceasefire immediately to consolidate gains and avoid reparations.
Connecting US Policy to Trade and Potential Corruption
🎦 17:30-19:50⏩
- Jonathan connects US policy towards Russia to trade actions, including trade wars with Canada and potentially the EU and Mexico.
- He highlights tariffs on Canadian aluminium and steel, and the desire to relieve sanctions on Belarus potash.
- He links this to Oleg Deripaska, a sanctioned Russian oligarch connected to Paul Manafort and owning Rusal, the world's second-largest aluminium producer, which could benefit if US sanctions are lifted.
- Jonathan suggests Trump's actions are transactional and deal-oriented, potentially benefiting Deripaska and Russia.
Fundamental US-Russia Reconciliation and Tri-polar World Order
🎦 19:50-22:48⏩
- Edward flips the perspective, arguing Trump's actions are not driven by specific US interests in trade deals, but by a "fundamental decision" for "massive historical and strategic reconciliation with Russia".
- He believes this reconciliation is the primary goal, with trade deals and other actions fitting under it.
- He suggests Trump is acting against US national interests as traditionally understood, if the US is considered a Western democracy.
- He references a Marco Rubio interview indicating the US is "rescuing Russia at a strategic and economic level" from the consequences of its aggression.
- Edward explains the US aims to prop Russia back up to create a "tri-polar world" of the three largest nuclear states: US, Russia and China.
- This would involve a "tense, but nevertheless flexible and fluid three-way competition" with cooperation, coordination, and competition between them.
- The goal is to manage tensions within this tri-polar system.
Ramifications of Not Achieving a Tri-polar World and Alternative US Approach
🎦 22:48-23:57⏩
- Jonathan asks about the ramifications if the tri-polar world does not materialise.
- He suggests that if the US fully supported Ukraine and intensified sanctions, Russia could have been quickly defeated.
- He questions why Trump prefers a tri-polar world over a bi-polar China-US world, where the US might benefit from a collapsed Russia.
Trump as a Potential Russian Asset and Pro-Russian Elements in US Policy
🎦 23:57-27:01⏩
- Edward suggests Trump's motivations are complex, involving Trump himself, his advisors, and factions within American conservatism.
- He posits that Trump himself is "highly likely a well-cultivated asset" of the Russian Federation, cultivated since the 1980s, but not necessarily a direct agent.
- He cites Trump's personality traits (vanity, narcissism, self-interest, love of money and luxury) as making him an "absolute wet dream for influence by a hostile foreign intelligence service", especially the Russians.
- He describes Russian intelligence as "the best, most ruthless" in influence operations, lacking moral limits and making it an "art form".
- He points to Trump's pro-Russia statements dating back to the 2016 campaign, his association with Manafort, and the pro-Russian attitudes of figures like Tulsi Gabbard and Elon Musk within US politics.
- He concludes there is an "absolutely a pro-Russian... element to how the United States is being run today" which is "obvious".
China Hawks and the Reverse Nixon Strategy
🎦 27:01-30:08⏩
- Edward explains that another key component is the "China hawks" within the Pentagon, who prioritize containing China above all else.
- These strategists are less concerned with Russia or Europe, viewing China as the primary challenge to US power.
- They see China's population, economy, and manufacturing power as threats.
- They believe Europe is "sclerotic" and "lazy" and advocate for abandoning Europe to focus on China.
- Russia can exploit this by subtly influencing these China hawks to be even more extreme and disinterested in Europe.
Ungratefulness Towards Allies and Russian/MAGA Disinformation
🎦 30:08-32:00⏩
- Edward criticizes the "ungratefulness" of these China hawks towards European allies, who have contributed significantly to US-led operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
- He notes the lack of appreciation for European sacrifices and contributions in US discourse.
- He argues this is driven by a combination of "Russian disinformation operations and MAGA disinformation operations" which are now indistinguishable.
- He observes the merging of Russian and MAGA online narratives, making it difficult to differentiate between Russian bots and MAGA supporters.
Merger of Pro-Russian and Anti-China Forces in US Policy
🎦 32:00-34:26⏩
- Edward describes a "merger of different forces" in the US that shapes policy dangerously.
- This includes outright pro-Moscow elements and China hawks who, while not pro-Russia, align in certain policies.
- The China hawks can be "fooled" by a "reverse Nixon" logic of allying with Russia to contain China.
- He mentions past Russian propaganda efforts to align with the West against "Islamists".
- He speculates Russia might now present itself as a partner in combating drug trafficking to further manipulate the US.
- He concludes America is "opening itself up to being voluntarily subverted by the Russian state".
Triangulation and US Isolationism Benefiting Russia and China
🎦 34:26-36:48⏩
- Jonathan summarizes the situation: Russia distracts the US with China, allowing Russia to act freely, while China tries to decouple the US from the EU.
- He argues Trump "fundamentally doesn't understand alliances" and sees everything as "zero-sum gains", not understanding positive-sum cooperation.
- This leads to isolationism, peeling away from the EU, NATO, and other alliances, benefiting both Russia and China and fragmenting the world.
- Jonathan suggests the EU might be the only entity standing up for democracy.
- Edward agrees and expands on the historical context of isolationism and autarky, linking it to fascist regimes like Mussolini's Italy and Nazi Germany.
Historical Parallels to Fascist Autarky and Imperialism
🎦 36:48-39:30⏩
- Edward explains that the desire for autarky and self-sufficiency is not new and was pursued by fascist regimes.
- He describes Mussolini's Italy and Nazi Germany's economic ideology of conquering resource-rich territories and exploiting conquered populations to achieve self-sufficiency and invulnerability.
- He argues that Trump's policies are pulling the US and potentially the world back towards a "darker phase of human history" where major powers prioritize physical control and military force over trust and rules-based international order.
US Imperialism in the Northern Hemisphere
🎦 39:30-42:08⏩
- Edward suggests that a US behaving in an "imperialist way" would seek to control the "Northern Americas" from the Panama Canal to the Arctic Ocean.
- This would involve subjugating Canada, Greenland, Mexico, and Central American states for resources and control of the Panama Canal.
- He cites Trump's rhetoric about Canada as the "51st state" and Musk's suggestion to "throw in Greenland" as evidence of this "imperialist, expansionist, revisionist way of talking".
- He notes Canada is taking this seriously, fearing economic coercion and destabilization from the US.
- He compares Trump's approach to Putin's economic bullying of neighbours before resorting to military force.
- He concludes that Trump and Putin share a "similar worldview".
Economic Pain and Shift in US Priorities
🎦 42:08-44:28⏩
- Edward argues that Trump's administration accepts that the US economy will "rebalance" and undergo "adjustments" and "pain".
- This is a "complete change" from Trump 1.0, with his administration now openly telling the public to expect economic hardship.
- He questions why a "nuclear superpower" in a safe location would prepare its population for economic pain without an obvious threat.
- He suggests the US should instead stick to existing alliances and ask allies to pay more, which would be a "rational American policy".
- He believes Trump is "being cultivated and maybe a little bit brainwashed" due to "lack of education" and "spending too much time talking with Russians", leading him to misunderstand the "Western way".
- He describes Trump as a "non-Western leader" who doesn't understand Western prosperity based on global networks and positive-sum gains, contrasting it with a "pejorative" view of "globalism".
Imperialistic Expansionism and Isolationism
🎦 44:28-46:14⏩
- Jonathan summarises that Trump's approach is "isolationist in terms of international cooperation" but "expansionist in terms of" needing to own territories like Canada and Panama.
- This is a combination of "imperialistic expansionism together with an isolationism".
- He questions if Trump is clever enough to understand this, suggesting the thinking comes from advisors, potentially linked to "Project 2025".
- He argues Trump's current administration is more dangerous than his first, as it is more prepared and "imperialistic".
Forgetting the Value of Alliances and Lessons of History
🎦 46:14-48:34⏩
- Edward discusses a "process of forgetting" why successive US administrations maintained alliances.
- He argues that the understanding of the value of alliances has been lost over generations, as the "trauma of the two world wars" and the reasons for forming alliances are forgotten.
- He gives the example of the EU's origins as an economic community, designed to prevent resource competition and market tensions that historically led to European wars.
- He argues the "real explanation" for the European project and globalization is to avoid "negative sum competition" and war between states.
Economic Cooperation vs. Resource Competition and Trump's Abandonment of this Logic
🎦 48:34-51:07⏩
- Edward elaborates on how economic cooperation within the EU was designed to remove incentives for war by reducing competition for resources and export markets.
- He contrasts this with a "paranoia-informed" worldview where countries seek self-sufficiency through conquest due to fear of being cut off from trade and resources.
- He argues Trump is pulling the US away from a rules-based system and back towards a darker era of resource competition and potential conflict.
- He states Trump's logic is that "America will be fine because it's large enough and powerful enough", especially if it controls North America.
Self-Sufficiency and Isolationism
🎦 51:07-52:33⏩
- Edward warns that a self-sufficient "northern American empire" could be "isolationist" and "retrain from most of the world".
- They might not care if Russia invades Eastern Europe or China invades Taiwan if they are self-sufficient in resources and microchips.
- He connects this to the Biden administration's "Chips and Science Act" and Trump's likely continuation of policies to achieve domestic microchip production, reducing concern about Taiwan.
Isolationist Sentiment in America and War Fatigue
🎦 52:33-54:43⏩
- Edward describes a third group of Americans who are "actual isolationists" and desire "retrenchment" after the "global war on terror".
- He acknowledges the costs of the "forever wars" and the public sentiment against foreign entanglements.
- He cites Mark Milley's statement that "this country has had it with wars", suggesting a lack of "stomach for going to war at all" in contemporary America.
- This is "ominous for Europeans" as it raises questions about US commitment to defending allies.
- He draws a parallel to pre-WWII US isolationism and "America First" sentiment.
NATO Articles 1 and 2 Violation and Questionable US Commitment to NATO
🎦 54:43-57:47⏩
- Jonathan argues that US actions against Canada violate NATO Articles 1 and 2, which emphasize peaceful dispute resolution, friendly relations, and economic collaboration among allies.
- Edward agrees this is an "excellent point" he hadn't considered.
- Jonathan suggests this violation gives Trump further "motivation to get out of NATO".
- Edward believes Trump has already "put one foot of America out of NATO" and that many European governments doubt US assistance in case of attack.
- He emphasizes that while a complete US withdrawal from NATO is not certain, European governments should "plan and equip themselves" for scenarios where they face Russia alone.
European Defence and UK's Difficult Position
- Jonathan asks if there will be a "European analogue to NATO" and where the EU and UK fit in a "new age of empires".
- Edward believes Europeans "absolutely need to do a lot more for their defense and security" and assume US unreliability.
- He urges increased defense budgets across Europe, except for Poland, which he sees on a "properly serious trajectory".
- He believes the UK and France haven't fully "woken up" to the coming difficulties.
- He sees a risk of the UK being "tempted to sort of do the splits across the Atlantic" and prioritising the US relationship over European solidarity due to trade and economic vulnerabilities.
UK's Plan B and Need for Increased Defence Spending
- Edward suggests the UK should continue its existing US relationship but develop a "plan B" focusing on enhanced European security.
- He notes the UK's valuable military and intelligence assets appreciated by the US and its strong defence industry ties with both the US and Europe.
- He describes "diplomatic mirroring" where the UK copies some US policies to maintain favour.
- He stresses the UK "really should do this time" what it avoids: "spend proper money on defense".
- He criticizes successive UK governments for "cutting corners" on defence, leading to a historically low force size and questionable readiness against a peer enemy like Russia.
- He questions the UK's deployable force size in a wider European conflict.
Critique of Biden Administration's Drip-Feeding Approach to Ukraine Aid
- Jonathan critiques the Biden administration's "drip-feeding approach" to military aid to Ukraine, arguing it has prolonged the war and cost Ukrainian lives.
- He argues that while this approach might have attrited Russia economically and militarily, a quicker, more decisive approach could have been better.
- He expresses frustration that Trump could have capitalised on Russia's weakened state but is instead "resurrecting Russia".
Risk of Russian Reconstitution and Need for Stronger European Defence
- Edward argues Biden's "drip-feeding" may be worse than Jonathan suggests, as it gives Russia time to remobilize and increase defence production.
- He notes that by late 2023, European governments' threat perceptions shifted, realizing Russia could reconstitute its forces within 5 years, possibly sooner, even after a ceasefire.
- He emphasizes the danger of a ceasefire now, allowing Russia to stockpile weaponry and gain combat experience, while Europe lacks similar experience.
- He stresses the need to "save the Ukrainian army" and integrate it into European security structures, including EU membership, for security reasons.
- He acknowledges potential obstacles to EU membership and suggests "coalitions of the willing" as a necessary approach for European action, including the UK.
Hope for EU Awakening and Need for Increased Defence Spending
- Jonathan asks if Edward is "hopeful" about the EU's recent awakening and response, and whether the EU can "come up with the goods" despite internal divisions.
- Edward sees a "stronger awakening" among security professionals and policymakers in Europe, with a new realization of the need for greater defence efforts.
- He believes incoming German Chancellor Merz is serious about increasing German defence budgets.
- However, he is "stunned" by the UK's "very small increase" in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, considering it inadequate in the current dangerous global situation.
- He argues for a "wartime coalition government" in the UK to overcome political obstacles and prioritize defence spending.
Funding Defence Increases and Public Perception
- Jonathan raises concerns about funding defence increases within existing budgets and potential public resistance to cuts in other areas.
- Edward argues that increased defence spending is "absolutely doable" and historically, countries facing acute threats have readily increased taxes and mobilized resources.
- He suggests a small income tax increase of 1-2% across the UK could generate substantial defence funding without cutting other essential services.
- He emphasizes that Western governments have spent more on COVID and energy crisis responses than on defence, demonstrating the capacity to mobilize funds when prioritized.
- He urges European citizens to lobby for higher defence budgets and be willing to spend 3-4% of GDP, seeing it as cheaper than actual war.
Defence Spending as Insurance and Political Leadership
- Jonathan likens defence spending to an "insurance policy", often undervalued until a crisis hits.
- He notes the difficulty of selling increased defence spending in peacetime.
- Edward believes voters are now ready to accept increased defence spending, but the "blockage" is with politicians who rely on focus groups and opinion polls instead of providing leadership.
- He argues "genuine statesmen" shape public opinion rather than follow it.
- He advocates for political leaders to "mobilize a nation" and make the case for increased defence spending to avert future disasters, referencing Kennedy and Churchill as examples of effective leadership.
Need for European Agency and Strength
- Edward stresses the urgent need for European nations to increase defence spending to avoid losing "agency" in a world with a revanchist Russia and an unreliable US.
- He warns of a "divide and rule" scenario against Europe if it remains weak.
- He calls for European nations to "rise together to be strong" at the national and coalition level.
- He emphasizes the need for "strong European nations" committed to European values and collective security, able to deter threats like Putin and "tell him to back the fuck off".
Super Chat Thanks and Defence Spending Targets
- Jonathan thanks super chat contributors Jonny Nedrighaard and Jonny Christensen.
- He reads a comment from Goose Springsteen advocating for capability targets over percentage spending targets for defence.
- Jonathan and Edward discuss the UK's higher defence spending needs as a nuclear nation and island compared to landlocked NATO nations.
Percentage of GDP vs. Capability Targets for Defence Spending
- Edward agrees with Goose that "capabilities are what matter most" (output size).
- However, he argues that percentage of GDP targets are also "necessary" for political reasons, both domestically and within alliances, to demonstrate effort and ensure resource allocation.
- He mentions an estimate of 3.7% of GDP for the UK as necessary to achieve required capabilities.
- He emphasizes the importance of fair burden-sharing within alliances, with countries spending similar percentages of GDP on defence.
Trident and UK Defence Budget
- Jonathan reads a comment from Zed asking about removing Trident nuclear deterrent costs from the UK defence budget.
- He mentions his friend's naval perspective that pensions and nuclear costs significantly inflate the UK defence budget, making it appear larger than its actual conventional military capability.
- Edward acknowledges this point but reiterates the political necessity of percentage-based targets and resource allocation to achieve capabilities.
European Defence Force Feasibility and NATO Model
- Jonathan asks about the feasibility and desirability of a "European Defence Force" separate from NATO.
- Edward initially considered it "zero probability" but now sees increased discussion.
- He clarifies that a European Defence Force doesn't necessarily mean merging national armies, but rather creating an "integrated command structure" and "European coalition warfare" similar to NATO's model.
- He emphasizes the long history and success of coalition warfare and the UK and France's experience in it.
- He suggests Europe could "replicate the NATO model", either by Europeanizing NATO structures or through the EU or coalitions of the willing.
- He believes this is "possible" and "plenty of precedent" exists, but "a lot of work to be done".
Defence Inflation and GDP-Based Budgeting
- Jonathan raises the issue of rising equipment costs ("defence inflation") affecting defence budgets.
- Edward acknowledges defence inflation can be higher than general inflation.
- However, he explains the "advantage of fixing a percent of GDP" is that defence budgets "go up automatically every year in line with nominal GDP", compensating for inflation and real economic growth, unless there is a major recession.
Final Thanks and Warning about Dismissing Trump's Rhetoric
- Jonathan thanks AJ Simo for gifting memberships and mentions Canadian viewers, asking for thoughts and support for Canada facing US pressure.
- He warns against "laughing off" Trump's rhetoric, as some previously dismissed ideas now appear serious, such as the "51st state of America" comment regarding Canada.
- He urges viewers to support Canada and recognize the seriousness of Trump's rhetoric.
Making Sense of a Crazy World and Final Thanks to Edward
- Jonathan reflects on the "crazy time we live in" and thanks Edward for "helping us make sense of it".
- He encourages viewers to follow Edward Hunter Christie, especially on Blue Sky.
- Edward thanks Jonathan and viewers and expresses gratitude to those helping Ukraine.
- He emphasizes the importance of human lives over money and land and the need for unity in recognizing threats to Europe and global stability, acknowledging Ukraine's efforts "on our behalf".
Mineral Deal and Wrap up
- Jonathan mentions the mineral deal and its uncertain status.
- He thanks super chat contributors and the community.
- He expresses immense gratitude to Edward Hunter Christie for his insights.
- Jonathan directs viewers to ATPGO.com/donate and concludes the live stream.
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