Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"If you're the Russian army, and the whole point of you being in Ukraine is to take Ukraine territory right, you have the second greatest army in the world, this is not, it shouldn't be a problem that all is going well right? If you if you're a Russian troll, you're sitting there saying 'yeah, we're all great, we're fine, we're brilliant, Russians are awesome, yay!' You would just be like waltzing through the land, but you're not. You're thinking everything is so difficult, everything is so slow, and everything is so costly..."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:45⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new frontline update. He's just finished watching England narrowly beat Switzerland 2-1 in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals, a game he feels England didn't show up for. He encourages viewers unfamiliar with the map legend to pause and review it.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kharkiv Oblast: New Sector & Russian Advance

🎦 00:45-02:25⏩

Jonathan examines the northern Kharkiv Oblast, where a third sector has opened northwest of Kharkiv City. Both Deep State Map and Suriat Maps depict a Russian advance into this sector. This is concerning, especially given the recent US warning that any expansion of the Kharkiv attack zone justifies Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory beyond the usual 100km limit. The implication being that Ukraine could target Russian airbases with longer-range missiles. It's unclear if this advance constitutes such an expansion or if Ukraine will retaliate.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Llyubyky & Ukrainian Counterattacks

🎦 02:25-03:31⏩

Shifting focus slightly north of Kharkiv, around Llyubyky just above Lipsy, Suriat Maps show Ukrainian counterattacks pushing back Russian forces. There's a discrepancy in Suriat Maps' tweet where the text describes a different frontline section. However, multiple sources confirm Ukrainian advancements and the liberation of 1.22 square kilometers north of Llyubyky.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Vovchansk and Russian Retreat

🎦 03:31-04:05⏩

In the Vovchansk area, comprising the wider northeastern sector from Starytsia to past Vovchansk, Suriat Maps shows Ukrainians pushing back Russian troops significantly. Jonathan speculates Suriat Maps is likely updating its data to reflect the situation accurately, as previous Russian control claims weren't corroborated by other sources.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Russian Mechanised Assault Near Kliopoque

🎦 04:05-07:57⏩

Jonathan circles back to the Kliopoque area, where a Russian mechanized counterattack, likely aimed at halting Ukrainian advances, was thwarted. Andrew Perpetua, in a recent livestream with Geek, highlighted this as one of the first major mechanized assaults in the area, noting that Russia typically relies on infantry-led attacks. The Russians lost four vehicles in this instance, all destroyed by Ukrainian forces before reaching the frontline. Perpetua attributes this success to Ukrainian drone fire control over the roads, making surprise attacks difficult. He mentions a satellite image capturing a Russian tank exploding during the attack, emphasizing the importance of drones in this conflict. The ability to spot enemy movements eliminates surprise attacks and requires overwhelming numerical superiority to counter. The destroyed Russian vehicles, two kilometers from the frontline, demonstrate the Ukrainian drone advantage.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Vovchansk, Encirclement at the Aggregate Plant

🎦 07:57-10:35⏩

Moving to the Vovchansk area, Jonathan addresses the situation at the aggregate plant, where Russian forces are reportedly encircled. The exact situation remains unclear, with uncertainty about troop numbers and whether it's a complete encirclement or a contested gray zone. Citing analysis from a recent Geek video, Jonathan notes that a lack of Russian mechanized attempts to break the encirclement suggests there might not be many troops trapped. Examining a month's worth of geolocated drone and artillery strike data, Geek observed that only Ukrainian strikes (marked in blue) were recorded inside the plant's vicinity. In contrast, Russian strikes (marked in red) were concentrated in a semicircle around the plant. This pattern suggests the Ukrainians control the surrounding area, effectively encircling the Russians inside. Jonathan highlights Suriat Maps' adjusted mapping, acknowledging a Russian pushback around the plant, aligning with the encirclement theory.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian Gains in Eastern Vovchansk

10:35-12:27⏩
East of the aggregate plant, in Volchansk, Ukrainian forces have completely liberated the eastern part of the settlement, reclaiming half a square kilometer. Suriat Maps reflects this substantial gain, contrasting with Deep State Map, which shows only a marginal change. Suriat Maps details that Ukrainian forces recaptured a new position northeast of Vovchansk, while both sides clash at the aggregate plant. Russian forces captured buildings east of Soborna Street, countered by Ukrainian recaptures west of the same street. Jonathan updates the map to reflect these changes and underscores the positive development for Ukraine. Kharkiv Oblast appears to be where Russia is facing the most setbacks. He speculates that the opening of the third sector to the northwest might be a Russian distraction tactic to divert Ukrainian resources.

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Northeastern Axis: Minor Russian Gains and Overall Stalemate

🎦 12:27-14:06⏩

Shifting to the northeastern axis, from Kupyansky Svatov to Kramina, Surat Maps indicates minor Russian gains near a tree line in the last few hours. Jonathan corrects an error in Suriat Maps' description, pointing out a mix-up in the location names. He clarifies that the previous report of Ukrainian advances was actually referring to the Gliobokoy area, while the current update pertains to Pistchani, where Russia made limited progress along a tree line and riverbed. Despite this minor gain, Jonathan emphasizes that the situation across the entire northeastern axis remains largely unchanged, a positive sign for Ukraine.

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Donetsk Oblast: Spirna Captured by Russian Forces

🎦 14:06-16:04⏩

Moving south to the Spirna area, Jonathan highlights what Suriat Maps depicts as significant Russian gains. While initially showing Ukrainian counterattacks and control of a plant east of Spirna, Suriat Maps has reversed its assessment, now indicating full Russian control of Spirna. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about this shift, noting that only Suriat Maps reflects this change. He highlights a video showing a Russian flag raised in Spirna, confirming at least a temporary Russian presence. However, Deep State Map and Andrew Perpetua's maps place the frontline further east, suggesting a smaller Russian advance than Suriat Maps portrays. Jonathan believes Suriat Maps might have overcompensated in its previous assessment, leading to this discrepancy. He concludes that while Russia has likely made some gains, they are likely less extensive than Suriat Maps indicates.

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Donetsk Oblast: Challenges for Ukraine in Chasivyar

🎦 16:04-19:16⏩

Jonathan observes no changes in Chasivyar, which is notable given recent reports of challenging conditions. Andrew Perpetua described the northern and southern areas as precarious for Ukrainian forces, with fighting occurring over the canal separating them from Russian troops. All three mappers depict differing control interpretations north and south of the canal, reflecting the area's fluidity and difficulty for Ukrainian troops. Citing reports from Ukraine, potentially from Euromaidan Press, Jonathan conveys the precarious situation of the Ukrainian assault force in Chasivyar-Antonyetsk. These reports suggest:

• The assault force is unsustainable and will likely be exhausted within months.
• Issues stem from ill-prepared infantry, with some receiving as little as a week and a half of training.
• Heavy tank and armored vehicle losses result from effective Russian drone attacks.

While these reports raise concerns, Jonathan emphasizes Russia's tendency to compensate for poor training and equipment with sheer troop numbers. He highlights reports from the Euromaidan Press:

• Russian forces struggle to hold Kalinivka village due to low morale.
• There's a decrease in Russian weapons and equipment quality.
• A captured Russian soldier claimed their most significant gains in Chasivya, Siverskaya, and Korakova resulted from attritional frontal assaults relying heavily on artillery and airstrikes, rather than strategic flanking maneuvers. These tactics have led to significant Russian armored vehicle losses.
• Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, Roman Mashovets, stated that the number of operational Russian tanks in the Chasivya, Siverskaya, and Korakova directions has dwindled to approximately 650, with only 1,850 combat-ready armored fighting vehicles remaining.

Jonathan connects these figures to his daily losses reports, emphasizing the unsustainable nature of Russian losses and their likely impact on equipment shortages. He cites the increased use of unconventional vehicles like motorbikes, quads, and modified garden sheds as evidence. He provides context by noting that visually confirmed Russian losses since the war's start exceed 15,000 armored vehicles and 8,000 tanks, with approximately a dozen of each lost daily. He concludes that while these figures paint a challenging picture for Russia, the situation for Ukraine remains critical, especially in Chasivyar.

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Donetsk Oblast: Concerns over Russian Advance South of Chasivyar

🎦 19:16-21:40⏩

While acknowledging the concern in Chasivyar, Jonathan emphasizes that a more significant problem is developing further south. In New York and Turetsk, Russia is making unexpected progress. Jonathan attributes this to a potential Ukrainian miscalculation, suggesting a rotation of troops might have created a vulnerability exploited by the Russians. He highlights the devastating impact on civilians, with Russian artillery and airstrikes targeting towns and cities in the area. Andrew Perpetua has been vocal about the horrific nature of these attacks, which have resulted in civilian casualties. Jonathan expresses concern for Turetsk, believing it's likely to suffer a similar fate to New York, with Russia employing its strategy of flattening population centers before attempting to capture them. He finds this southern advance particularly alarming, as it was not anticipated, unlike the offensive in Chasivyar, where Ukrainian defenses were more prepared.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian Gains Near Klishchiivka and Mayorsk

🎦 21:40-23:41⏩

Jonathan examines specific locations south of Chasivyar where Russia has made gains:

• Near Klishchiivka: Russians have secured a minor gain across the railway line and a couple of reservoirs, though this could be an existing position only recently confirmed.
• Mayorsk Area: Russian forces are pushing further north, aiming to capture the area east of the canal. This advance threatens Ukrainian supply lines, making it likely that areas up to Kurdyumivka will fall under Russian control.
• Along the Railway Line: Suriat Maps shows extensive Russian control, encompassing Klyuchivka, the trench system to its northwest, and surrounding land. Other mappers disagree, highlighting a significant discrepancy in assessments.
• Toward Pivnichne: Russians are making significant gains along the railway line towards Pivnichne and Drusba, employing a pincer movement with flanks advancing through Zalizhne.
• Pivnichne Outskirts: All three mappers agree on Russian control of areas in Pivnichne, though Suriat Maps depicts only minor gains, potentially reflecting their tendency to provide early assessments.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian Advance on New York and Towards Pokrovsk

🎦 23:41-26:51⏩

Jonathan analyzes Russian gains in the New York area:

• Confirmation of Russian Presence in New York: Andrew Perpetua confirms earlier claims by Suriat Maps about Russian presence inside New York. Deep State Maps corroborates this, raising concerns.
• Impact on Kostyantynivka: Perpetua highlights the significant implications of a potential fight over Kostyantynivka and the threat to the T0504 highway, which serves as a critical supply route.
• Russian Gains Across the Northern Salient: Russians have secured gains across the northern part of the salient, with Suriat Maps depicting slightly less progress than other mappers, likely due to differing assessment timelines.
• Slow but Steady Russian Advance: Jonathan notes that while Russia's progress is slow and costly, they are steadily pushing towards Pokrovsk in a westerly direction. However, their failure to cut the T0504 highway, as predicted by Perpetua, suggests limitations in their capabilities.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian Flanking Maneuver Near Voskhod

🎦 26:51-28:05⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to Voskhod, a settlement south of Yevhenivka in the southern part of the northern salient:

• Russian Advance West and Southwest of Voskhod: Russian forces have progressed in these directions, aiming to outflank Novoselivske and Pershotravneve from the north, potentially leading to their encirclement.
• Krasnohorivka Gains: Deep State Maps shows Russian gains in Krasnohorivka, aligning with earlier assessments from Suriat Maps and Perpetua.

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Analysis: Slow Russian Advance and Unsustainable Losses

🎦 28:05-29:24⏩

Jonathan analyzes the overall frontline situation:

• Concerns for Ukraine: Acknowledges the concerning situation for Ukrainian forces, especially given Russia's recent gains.
• Limitations of the Russian Advance: Despite being the aggressor with the "second greatest army in the world", Russia's progress remains slow and costly.
• Evidence of Unsustainable Russian Losses: High daily casualty rates and reliance on outdated equipment indicate the unsustainable nature of Russia's approach.
• Attrition Warfare: Jonathan believes Russia's only path to success lies in leveraging its disregard for human life, throwing troops and dwindling resources at the Ukrainians until they are overwhelmed.

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Southern Front: Fires and Potential Ukrainian Advances

🎦 29:24-32:17⏩

Turning to the southern front, Jonathan presents an unconfirmed report of Ukrainian advances into Krynky.

• Unconfirmed Reports of Ukrainian Advance: Jonathan acknowledges he has not seen this information corroborated elsewhere.
• Widespread Fires and Logistical Challenges for Russia: Jonathan notes reports of widespread fires in Russian-occupied Kherson, likely caused by Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots. These fires are creating chaos and logistical challenges for Russian forces.
• Potential Ukrainian Opportunism: Jonathan ponders whether Ukraine might capitalize on the situation in Kherson. However, he doubts they have sufficient forces in the area and emphasizes the high-risk nature of such an operation.
• Lessons from Previous Krynky Withdrawal: Jonathan reminds viewers that Ukraine's previous withdrawal from Krynky was strategic, not forced. Ukrainian forces were redeployed to defend Kharkiv, a higher priority at the time.
• Confirmation of Fires: He cites reports from "Said No Reports" confirming the extensive fires in occupied Kherson, adding that the area is becoming increasingly challenging for Russian forces. Jonathan questions the strategic value of a Ukrainian push across the Dnipro River at this time, especially since Russia has learned from its past mistakes and is less likely to commit significant resources to defend against a bridgehead.

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Wrap up

🎦 32:17-32:29⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers and reminding them to like, subscribe, and share the video.

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