Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The only problem is whatever you lose, you have to get back diplomatically, invariably. And that is certainly a challenge going forward"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a long overdue frontline update, covering the previous 4 days and apologises for the delay stating that he hasn't had time previously.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Map Legend/Sources
🎦 00:27-01:03⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that the defensive lines on the map are shown by blue lines for Andrew Perpetua and orange-red lines for Suriyak Maps. Jonathan explains that he has synthesised data from both mapmakers who use pins to show the movement of the frontline. Jonathan encourages viewers to pause the video to familiarise themselves with the map legend.
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Kursk Oblast: Russian Defensive Lines Pushed Southeast - Suriyak Maps
🎦 01:03-01:19⏩
Jonathan observes from Suriyak maps that Russia has moved its defensive lines further to the southeast and taken territory North of Martynivka, highlighting the changes on the map.
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Kursk Oblast: No Changes - Andrew Perpetua
🎦 01:19-01:41⏩
Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's map shows no change to the frontline in Kursk Oblast and there is a difference of opinion between the 2 mappers.
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ATP Distilled and ISW AI Report
🎦 01:41-02:02⏩
Jonathan gives a shout out to Benny Pye for building the new "ATP Distilled" website and recommends viewers visit the website to read the new daily ISW AI report which uses AI to distil the key points from the daily ISW reports.
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Kursk Oblast: Russian Forces Using Powerful Electronic Warfare Systems
🎦 02:02-02:12⏩
Jonathan reports that the ISW has reported that Russia is using powerful electronic warfare systems in Kursk Oblast to facilitate and cover assault operations.
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Kupyansk: Oskil River Yet to Freeze: Russia Lacking Forces and Means to Take Kupyansk
🎦 02:12-02:31⏩
Jonathan reports that the ISW has stated that the Oskil River has not yet frozen over and Russia lacks sufficient forces and means to expand offensive operations to take Kupyansk.
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Kupyansk: Russia Pushed Back From Eastern Bank of Oskil River - Mapper Differences
🎦 02:31-02:54⏩
Jonathan points out the Oskil River on the map and notes that because it hasn't frozen, it is more difficult for Russian forces to cross. Jonathan notes that Russia had made some gains in Kupyansk, pushing into the eastern part of the city but have now been pushed back. He also notes a difference of opinion between the 2 mappers in this area.
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Kreminna: Prokrosk: Russian Forces Conducting Relentless Meat Assaults
🎦 02:54-04:11⏩
Jonathan reports that the ISW has quoted a Ukrainian artillery reconnaissance battalion commander operating in the Prokrosk direction as stating that Russian forces are making continuous attempts to advance in groups of 20-30 near Zhovte, Lisivka and along the railway lines towards Prokrosk and will attack again 30-40 minutes after being repelled. Jonathan notes that Russia is making slow gains but not enough to reach Zaporizhzhia, let alone Dnipro, and their advances are limited to the southeastern corner of the frontline.
Kharkiv Oblast: Hliuboke: AFU Advance - Greyskull
🎦 04:11-05:20⏩
Jonathan reports that Greyskull is reporting that the AFU has made advances in the Hliuboke area, north of Kharkiv. Referencing the map, Jonathan highlights the area controlled by Ukrainian forces and notes that Russia has been pushed back, although is not clear from the map whether the yellow areas signify no man's land. Jonathan explains that the new Russian frontline is probably along the road to the south. He notes that neither mapper has updated their maps to reflect this.
Svatove: Lack of Russian Activity Due to Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast - Andrew Perpetua
🎦 05:20-06:15⏩
Jonathan refers to analysis from Andrew Perpetua who states that the reason for the lack of Russian attacks around the Voskhansk area is because of the Ukrainian counteroffensive into Kursk Oblast. Jonathan points out that Ukrainian attacks have forced Russia to redeploy resources, leading to the relative quiet in this sector of the frontline apart from some limited advances.
Kupyansk: Russian Forces Make Advances Across Oskil River - ISW/George Barros
🎦 06:15-08:19⏩
Jonathan reports that ISW has assessed that Russian forces have made advances across the Oskil River, Northwest of Kupyansk, near Dvorichna, which has been acknowledged by a Ukrainian military official. Jonathan highlights the area on the map and points out that it is south of Dvorichna, near Masiutivka, where the Russians have crossed the Oskil River. Jonathan thanks George Barros for highlighting this development. Jonathan then reads a comment from George Barros reporting that the Ukrainian general staff have acknowledged that Russian forces have conducted attacks on the West bank of the Oskil River near Fyodorivka (Northwest of Kupyansk) and Holubivka and Kindrasivka (immediately north of Kupyansk) Jonathan points out these locations on the map noting that this is a problem for Ukraine.
Kupyansk: Russian Advances West of Oskil River: Stelmakivka and South West of Kreminna
🎦 08:19-09:21⏩
Jonathan points to the map, highlighting further Russian attacks, north of Dvorichna, near Fyodorivka, describing these attacks as "challenging for the Ukrainians". Jonathan states that Russia is also making gains south of the Oskil River, near Stelmakivka, pushing the frontline further west towards the south of Kreminna. Jonathan highlights the scale of the Russian advance which is acknowledged by both mappers.
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Lyman-Svatove: Limited Russian Advance Near Turney: No Change in Siversk
🎦 09:21-09:37⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have made limited advances near Turney, gaining around "half a field" but describes this as "nothing to report too significantly". Jonathan states that there is no change on the northern part of the frontline near Siversk, which he describes as "good news".
Bakhmut: Ukrainian Forces Push Back Russian Forces in Chasiv Yar - Suriyak Maps
🎦 09:37-10:04⏩
Jonathan reports that there is good news in Chasiv Yar, with Suriyak maps showing that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back to the West of the canal. Jonathan highlights the areas on the map.
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Bakhmut: Ukrainian Forces Push Back Russian Forces in Drozdbe - Andrew Perpetua
🎦 10:04-10:29⏩
Jonathan refers to Andrew Perpetua's map showing that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back along the railway line in Drozdbe, towards Mayorsk, in the Turetsk sector. Jonathan notes that Suriyak maps show that Russian forces are making progress in the centre and southern outskirts of Turetsk.
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Donetsk Oblast: Overview of Russian Advances: Prokrosk-Karakivka-Velyka Novosilka
🎦 10:29-11:10⏩
Jonathan apologises for skimming over the detail as there's a lot to get through. He reports that there is no change on the northern part of the front line. He notes that Russian forces are pushing further west around Prokrosk and that both mappers agree that Russia is pushing along this entire front.
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Donetsk Oblast: General Syrskyi: Ukrainian Reinforcements/Reserves to Donetsk, Prokrosk and Kurakhove
🎦 10:29-11:10⏩
Jonathan reports that General Syrskyi, commander of Ukrainian ground forces, has stated that Ukrainian units will be reinforced in the Donetsk, Prokrosk and Kurakhove directions. Jonathan notes that General Syrskyi didn't specify the number of troops/timings. Jonathan also mentions additional reinforcements of equipment/ammunition have been discussed.
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Donetsk Oblast: Prokrosk: Russian Forces Advancing Towards Main Ukrainian Trench Line
🎦 11:10-11:50⏩
Jonathan notes that Russian forces are pushing westwards around Prokrosk, dangerously close to the main Ukrainian trench line. He questions whether Russian forces have got behind the trench line and are now pushing north, towards the road running south from Prokrosk.
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Donetsk Oblast: Kurakhove: Russian Forces Capture Ilinka and Brestok
🎦 11:50-12:31⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces are pushing north through Ilinka, towards Kurakhove, south of the reservoir. He notes that both mappers agree that Russia has now taken control of Brestok. Jonathan points out a small difference in the maps, in the field between the reservoir and Novoselidivka. Jonathan goes on to describe how Russian forces are pushing through Kurakhove, now controlling half of the town, and are advancing south, towards Darya. Jonathan reminds viewers that there is an east-west trenchline here that Russia will be trying to reach and describes the situation as "looking pretty dicey" for Ukrainian forces.
Donetsk Oblast: Velyka Novosilka: Ukrainian Counterattacks? - Mapper Differences
🎦 12:31-13:16⏩
Jonathan highlights a potential Ukrainian counterattack. He notes that both mappers show differences in Russian positions to the East, north of Velyka Novosilka. Andrew Perpetua's map appears to show a rejig of the frontline, whilst Suriyak's map shows the Russian frontline further to the East. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians are still making it difficult for Russian forces. He points out that Russia has made some gains in the south of the Donetsk front, but that Ukrainians may be pushing Russian forces back in the Trudova area.
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Donetsk Oblast: Trudova: Heavy Fighting: Russia Losing Equipment
🎦 13:16-13:47⏩
Jonathan describes "quite a lot of fighting" taking place around Trudova with videos coming out showing Russian equipment losses. He comments that Russian losses "don't really stop them, do they?"
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Donetsk Oblast: Russian Gains North of Maksymivka
🎦 13:47-14:08⏩
Jonathan points out Russian gains, north of Maksymivka and states that he will come back to this area later in the video.
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Donetsk Oblast: Velyka Novosilka: "Bad News"
🎦 14:08-14:15⏩
Jonathan refers to a report from NoelReports stating that "bad news" is coming from the Velyka Novosilka direction.
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Donetsk Oblast: Autumn Offensive: Analysis From ML Castelhomme (Blackbird Group)
🎦 14:15-17:34⏩
Jonathan summarises analysis from ML Castelhomme from the Blackbird group.
- Autumn has been grim for Ukraine
- Between 1st September - 30th November Russian forces have captured over 1600 sq km and retaken 500 sq km of Kursk Oblast
- Rate of advance has accelerated each month
- Prokrosk is closer; Karakivka pretty much taken; Velyka Novosilka looking vulnerable
- By the end of the summer the situation was developing in a "worrying direction" for Ukraine
- Russian gains were relatively large and it didn't look like the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast would slow them down
- Russia conducted counter offensives in Kursk Oblast
- Ukraine lost the Western flank and positions in the East
- Between Sept-Nov, Ukraine did not advance significantly in Kursk Oblast - 40% of territory has been recaptured by Russian forces (now likely to be 50%)
- The main focus of the Autumn offensive has been Prokrosk and Karakivka
- In Nov, after the loss of Vuhledar, Russian forces also advanced quickly towards Velyka Novosilka
- Currently, most of the changes on the frontline are taking place along a 140km section
- Russian forces are applying pressure elsewhere but haven't gained much in the big picture
- Ukrainians have defended well in the Turetsk-Chasiv Yar-Siversk direction, denying Russia the opportunity to make significant advances
- There has been little change in Zaporizhzhia
- In Kupyansk, Russian forces have advanced across the Oskil River but this can be considered a secondary front
- The loss of territory means that Ukraine will have to regain it diplomatically which is challenging
Donetsk Oblast: Velyka Novosilka: Potential Further Russian Advances
🎦 17:34-18:02⏩
Jonathan notes that there are reports of "bad news" coming from Velyka Novosilka and reports that Russian forces have been located in Novyi Komar, cutting the highway to Prokrosk and putting the remaining Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novosilka at risk. He also reports that Ukrainian forces appear to have retreated beyond the Mokri Yaly River.
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Donetsk Oblast: Velyka Novosilka: Novyi Komar: Russian Forces Threaten to Encircle Velyka Novosilka
🎦 18:02-19:17⏩
Jonathan points out the location of Novyi Komar on the map and describes the situation as "challenging" for Ukrainian forces. He highlights that both mappers agree that Russian forces have entered Novyi Komar and that this gives Russia an opportunity to encircle Velyka Novosilka if they are able to make further advances to the west and up the Mokri Yaly River. Jonathan believes it is inevitable that Ukrainian forces will lose Makarivka, Storozheve and Neskuchne. He questions whether "the writing is on the wall" for Velyka Novosilka. Jonathan observes that Russia has made slight gains further east, around Novodaryvka, which they appear to have taken and that "things are not looking good" for Ukraine in this area. Jonathan summarises the situation, stating that Prokrosk is "typically challenging", Chasiv Yar and Turetsk "aren't looking too bad". Jonathan is concerned by the Russian advances across the Oskil River.
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Kursk Oblast: The Importance of Kursk Oblast: Bargaining Chip for Ukraine?
🎦 19:17-19:52⏩
Jonathan speculates about what will happen in Kursk Oblast and who will control it by the 20th January (the date of Trump's inauguration). He states that Putin wants control by this date. He believes that Kursk Oblast is an important bargaining chip for Ukraine and is worth more than its size in square kilometres. Jonathan ponders whether Ukraine will be able to hold on to this territory and whether doing so will be too attritional.
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Wrap Up
🎦 19:52-19:56⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and signs off.
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