Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"There's a lot of combustible material in a chicken farm. Just the chicken manure itself is going to be full of combustible energy."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a Ukraine War Update video for 10/01/2025. He's starting off with the overnight news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
🎦 00:11-04:06⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures:
- Personnel: 1,830 (above average)
- Tanks: 10 (above average)
- Troop carrying AFVs: 32 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 24 (above average)
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 3
- Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 86 (very high)
- Special Equipment: 3
I Want to Live project
🎦 04:06-05:43⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment by Cheryl Whatley who said that 25% of Russians who have surrendered under the "I Want to Live" project are from the Donbas. Jonathan notes that given the forced mobilisation in the occupied territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) it's likely that a high number of those surrendering will be from these regions as they don't want to fight Ukrainians. They may even be released as Ukrainian citizens rather than POWs.
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Lloyd Austin: Russia has lost two-thirds of its military resources
🎦 05:43-07:43⏩
Jonathan reports that US Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, has said that Ukraine has effectively destroyed two-thirds of Russia's military resources. Jonathan questions how this would be calculated but notes that the US estimates 700,000 Russian casualties since the start of the invasion which aligns with the Ukrainian General Staff figures of 800,000. Jonathan highlights that these losses have forced Russia to seek soldiers from North Korea to make up for the shortfall.
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Overnight Drone Strikes
🎦 07:43-12:54⏩
- Southern Ukraine: Air defence forces destroyed two 9K317BKM3 air defence system elements and a launch unit
- Magyar Birds drone unit: Destroyed a Russian military convoy destroying four pieces of equipment and killing a number of personnel.
- Jonathan digresses to talk about how the Ukrainians use videos to calculate losses and shows footage from a Magyar birds drone unit video (which he adds to the comments) which shows soldiers entering a small building which is then destroyed.
MLRS technical
🎦 11:39-12:54⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a truck that has been converted into a MLRS technical in Ukraine. He thanks viewers for their donations towards the MLRS technical that the channel fundraised for and confirms it is now operational in Ukraine.
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Overnight Drone Strikes
🎦 12:54-13:52⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine was targeted by a large wave of 72 Shahed drones overnight.
- 67 were destroyed (33 shot down, 34 electronically jammed)
- 5 got through
Kyiv
🎦 13:52-13:52⏩
Jonathan reports that a high rise building was damaged in Kyiv, possibly as a result of a drone being destroyed overhead.
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Explosions in Voronezh
🎦 13:52-14:21⏩
Jonathan reports that explosions were heard in Voronezh. Overnight strikes targeted Milorovo airbase, Kamensk-Shaktinsky and Novoshektinsk - all previously targeted.
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Nizhny Novgorod hydroelectric power station
🎦 14:21-15:08⏩
Jonathan reports that the Nizhny Novgorod hydroelectric power station (300km east of Moscow) may have been targeted. Heavy smoke was seen billowing from the plant. He questions whether the damage would be significant enough to warrant a strike given the distance from Ukraine and suggests that the damage may be unrelated to the war.
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Acetone plant in Leningrad region
🎦 15:08-15:32⏩
Jonathan reports that an acetone plant in the Leningrad region was on fire and explosions were heard.
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Ingrich Tech Gachina
🎦 15:32-16:54⏩
Jonathan cites information from Tim White about distance strikes:
- Ingrich Tech in Gachina, Leningrad Oblast (40km south of St Petersburg and 900km from the Ukrainian border) was destroyed in a fire. While officially a manufacturer of decorative coatings and doors, the Ukrainian Centre for Countering Disinformation claims that the site was being used for military production. Jonathan agrees that this is likely as it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to target this from such a distance unless it was of military significance.
Rostov region drone strikes
🎦 16:54-17:40⏩
Jonathan cites information from Tim White about distance strikes:
- The governor of Rostov region reported that 16 drones were shot down over the region.
- A private house in the village of Chautier was hit and debris fell on a factory (Plastfaktor). Russia claims Plastfaktor manufactured floor coverings, however Ukraine claims that it was a disguised military production site. Jonathan notes that there were no injuries at Plastfaktor unlike the civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia earlier in the week.
Donetsk region strikes
🎦 17:40-18:24⏩
Jonathan cites information from Tim White about distance strikes:
- One civilian was killed and six were injured following shelling in occupied Donetsk. Jonathan acknowledges that this may indicate that Ukraine is not avoiding civilian casualties however more context is needed.
Kievsky region - power outages
🎦 18:24-18:48⏩
Jonathan cites information from Tim White about distance strikes:
- In the Kievsky region, six substations were de-energised and 1,750 subscribers left without power. Jonathan notes that this seems more deliberate than an attack on a supermarket.
Svitlodarsk - Residential building shelling
🎦 18:48-19:17⏩
Jonathan cites information from Tim White about distance strikes:
- 65km northeast of Donetsk, a woman was killed and four others injured when a residential building was shelled in Svitlodarsk. Jonathan notes that further information is needed to understand the reasons behind the shelling.
Cherkazovo Chicken Kindom
🎦 19:17-23:08⏩
- Jonathan discusses the fire at the Cherkazovo Chicken Kingdom, one of Russia's largest poultry producers, yesterday. While Russian sources claim that the fire was caused by falling debris after drones were shot down, Jonathan speculates that the farm was targeted as Russia may have been storing ammunition at the site. He notes that it is not unusual for ammunition depots to be disguised within civilian locations to protect them from attack. He illustrates this by saying that even though it is an egregious act, military equipment is often stored in nuclear power stations, hospitals and other civilian locations as a deterrent to attack as most armies would avoid striking them.
Update on Engels oil depot fire
🎦 23:08-24:22⏩
Jonathan gives an update on the fire at the Engels oil depot which was attacked by Ukrainian drones two days previously.
- Firefighters are still trying to extinguish the blaze using foam.
- The oil depot stored kerosene used by the Russian airforce at the nearby airfield.
- The airfield is reportedly experiencing fuel shortages as a result of the attack.
Orel - satellite images of oil depot strike
🎦 24:22-25:09⏩
Jonathan reports that satellite images show that an oil depot in Orel was hit by Ukrainian drones on December 22nd. The images show that at least two fuel tanks and a pipeline were destroyed.
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Lloyd Austin: Russia is relying on North Korea and Iran
🎦 25:09-26:36⏩
Jonathan reports that Lloyd Austin has said that Russia is relying increasingly on Iran and North Korea for military support. He notes that in order to hold onto its gains in Ukraine, Russia would need to deploy substantial forces and that they are critically short of personnel. Jonathan believes that the war has become a war of attrition.
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Kursk counteroffensive
🎦 26:36-27:55⏩
- The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk has been repelled.
- Russia has recaptured a number of settlements (Tolstoy Lug, Zelyonyi Shlyak, Novy Ivanovka, Kruglenkoia) and entered the northern part of Prohres.
- Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainian counteroffensive may have been a ploy to draw Russian forces to the area to inflict heavy casualties and deplete their resources.
Prokrosk offensive slowed
🎦 27:55-28:38⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian offensive on Prokrosk has stalled due to heavy losses and lack of resources. However Russian forces are just 2km from Prokrosk.
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Russian soldiers looting in Kramatorsk
🎦 28:38-29:18⏩
Jonathan shows footage of Russian soldiers breaking into and looting apartments in Kramatorsk.
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EU advice on flights to Moscow
🎦 29:18-30:06⏩
The EU has issued a warning to airlines to avoid flying to Moscow due to safety concerns. The warnings cite poor Russian coordination with civil aviation, the risk of being caught in the crossfire as Russian air defences activate in response to attacks. Jonathan suggests that the warnings, while valid, could also be a means of damaging the Russian aviation industry and economy.
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Syria blocks evacuation of Russian military equipment from Tartus
🎦 30:06-30:51⏩
Jonathan reports that Syria has blocked the evacuation of Russian military equipment from the port of Tartus. A ship that was due to evacuate equipment and personnel has been refused entry to the port.
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Wrap Up
🎦 30:51-31:16⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them that the channel will be travelling to Ukraine soon.
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