Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Intelligence Sharing Ban Effects
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Prove me wrong. And it's really interesting to see those who were shouting the Andy S's of the world, shouting how wonderful Trump is and this is all going to be really good. I don't hear a peep out of people like that at the moment because it's pretty bloody obvious which side of this conflict He and his administration is on."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:24⏩
- Jonathan welcomes the team to ATP Geopolitics and the Ukraine War News Update for 6th March 2025.
- He notes that it is a geopolitically important day, with political decisions significantly impacting tactical and operational activities.
- Jonathan expresses his daily frustration with the worsening geopolitical situation, particularly concerning the Trump administration's actions.
- He sets the stage for discussing hits and losses, acknowledging the political crossover but aiming for a practical viewpoint.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses According to Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 01:24-02:32⏩
- Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, reminding viewers of the usual caveats and that figures are available in the video description.
- Reported losses include 1,140 personnel, 5 tanks, and 7 AFVs, which are noted as being around or below daily averages.
- Artillery system losses are at the daily average (21), a significant decrease from previously higher numbers.
- Two anti-aircraft warfare systems were destroyed, highlighting Ukraine's successful efforts in attriting Russian air defences, possibly through SEAD operations.
- 94 vehicles and fuel tanks were also destroyed.
Ukrainian Drone Tactics and Potential Buffer Zone
🎦 02:32-03:13⏩
- Jonathan speculates on Ukraine's tactics, suggesting drones are playing a significant role in creating buffer zone corridors.
- He proposes that Ukraine might be using drones to minimise human troop usage due to personnel shortages.
- The tactic involves flooding the skies with drones to disrupt Russian movement and potentially reduce the need for extensive troop deployment along the entire front line, focusing instead on reactive defence.
Declining Russian Assault Operations and Frontline Dynamics
🎦 03:13-04:43⏩
- The number of Russian assault operations is declining, particularly on the Prokrosk front.
- Jonathan refers viewers to his previous frontline update for more context on the changing frontline situation.
- He suggests Kursk is under pressure and could potentially be lost by Ukraine, which would be a significant loss of a bargaining chip.
- Despite overall challenges, Ukrainians are pushing back in areas like Prokrosk and Kupyansk, with successful counterattacks in Turetsk.
- Russian offensives appear to have culminated, at least temporarily.
- Fighting continues in the Vliko Novosilka area, with questions raised about Ukrainian defence plans there.
Lowest Number of Russian Engagements Recorded
🎦 04:43-05:07⏩
- A new record low of 17 Russian engagements was recorded on March 4th, compared to a daily maximum of 30.
- Deep State maps graph indicates a significant drop in the intensity of Russian attacks since 2025.
Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade Destroys Russian Equipment Near Liman
🎦 05:07-05:33⏩
- The Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade destroyed a range of Russian equipment near Liman in recent days.
- Equipment destroyed includes armoured vehicles, trucks, an ammunition-carrying UAZ, a motorcycle, guns, an anti-aircraft warfare system, mortars and an electronic warfare unit.
- Such visual confirmations have been less frequent recently due to the focus on higher-level political events.
HIMARS Strike with Cluster Munitions and Baltic State Cluster Munitions Convention
🎦 05:33-06:30⏩
- Footage of a HIMARS strike using cluster munitions is shown.
- Jonathan notes that one of the Baltic states, possibly Lithuania, is considering withdrawing from the cluster convention.
- This withdrawal is speculated to be potentially linked to acquiring or providing cluster munitions to Ukraine.
US Intelligence Sharing Pause and Impact on HIMARS
🎦 06:30-07:25⏩
- The US has reportedly stopped sharing some intelligence with Ukraine, potentially affecting HIMARS usage.
- While some HIMARS operators deny any impact, others suggest it varies along the front line.
- Reports from Washington Press indicate that the AFU has stopped receiving data for HIMARS strikes beyond 60km from the contact line for the past month.
Intelligence Sharing Pause Predates Zelensky-Trump Meeting
🎦 07:25-08:29⏩
- The decision to scale back intelligence sharing with Ukraine reportedly predates Zelensky's meeting with Trump at the White House, debunking the idea that it was a reaction to the meeting.
- This action is described as part of a broader US strategy to pressure Ukraine while not pressuring Russia, seen as detrimental to Ukraine's interests.
- Analysts are suggesting the US has effectively changed sides and is harming Ukraine while doing nothing to harm Russia.
Belgorod Shopping Centre Fire
🎦 08:29-09:34⏩
- A shopping centre complex in the Belgorod region of Russia has caught fire.
- Locals are suggesting flammable materials and poor safety procedures exacerbated the fire.
- Jonathan notes that such incidents are frequent in Russia and speculates that some may be insurance jobs due to economic pressures from the war.
- Even if not directly war-related, such events are still connected to the economic impact of the war on Russia.
Russian Drone Attack on Ukraine and Interception Rates
🎦 09:34-10:35⏩
- Russia launched 122 Shahed drones at Ukraine overnight; 68 were shot down and 43 suppressed, meaning 11 got through.
- A nearly 10% failure rate in interception is considered problematic, as previous nights have seen 100% interception rates.
- This raises questions about whether the reduced interception rate is linked to the pause in US intelligence sharing, potentially affecting Ukraine's target acquisition capabilities.
- Two Iskander ballistic missiles were also launched and are assumed to have gotten through.
Odessa and Pivdeni Port Targeted in Drone Attacks
🎦 10:35-11:18⏩
- Odessa and surrounding areas, particularly the port of Pivdeni, were prime targets of the Russian drone attacks.
- Chornomorsk, south of Odessa, was also likely struck.
- Jonathan speculates if Odessa's air defences, possibly Patriot systems, have been degraded due to interceptor shortages, damage, or maintenance issues, contributing to increased successful strikes.
US Halts Weapon Deliveries to Ukraine and Turns Planes Around Mid-Air
🎦 11:18-12:21⏩
- The US is no longer providing weapons to Ukraine, with reports of planes carrying kit being turned around mid-air.
- Jonathan interprets turning planes around mid-air as a deliberate and forceful attempt to prevent aid from reaching Ukraine, indicating a strong desire to harm Ukraine's capabilities.
- This action is seen as more than just stopping future aid but actively preventing already en route supplies from arriving.
Concerns for Odessa's Weakened Air Defences and Russian Missile Strike on Kryvyi Rih Hotel
🎦 12:21-13:47⏩
- There are concerns that Odessa has become more vulnerable due to weakened air defences, which Russia may be exploiting.
- A Russian missile attack struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, similar to previous attacks on journalist hotels in Kharkiv.
- The targeted hotel was housing journalists and humanitarian workers, suggesting a deliberate targeting.
- The attack resulted in at least four deaths and around 30 injuries, with potential for more casualties under the rubble.
US Intelligence Sharing Pause: Imminent Force Protection Exempted but Broader Assistance Halted
🎦 13:47-15:22⏩
- Nick Schifrin reports on the end of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
- A US official and congressional official indicate that "imminent force protection" is exempted, suggesting air defence cooperation for Kyiv might continue, particularly against ballistic missiles.
- However, broader intelligence sharing, especially assistance for Ukrainian strikes into Russia, has been paused.
- This is seen as discriminatory, protecting Kyiv but not necessarily other parts of Ukraine.
Nuances of US Intelligence Pause and Cost in Ukrainian Lives
🎦 15:22-16:22⏩
- Ukraine can still launch strikes into Russia, but accuracy will be reduced without US assistance.
- US also provides targeting assistance for Ukrainian soldiers inside Ukraine fighting on the front line, but it's unclear if this is also paused.
- Conflicting reports exist on the extent of the intelligence pause's impact on defensive capabilities.
- A US official states the intelligence pause will cost Ukrainian lives, indicating a severe consequence of the policy change.
US Policy Favours Russian Lives Over Ukrainian Lives to Force Peace
🎦 16:22-17:01⏩
- Jonathan argues that the White House has made a calculation that it is more acceptable for Ukrainian civilians and soldiers to die than Russian soldiers, to force a peace deal.
- He believes the US would prefer Ukrainian casualties over Russian casualties to pressure Ukraine into negotiations.
- He asserts that all US actions align with this "despicable" mantra.
Cessation of US Aid Means End of US Restrictions on Ukrainian Strategy
🎦 17:01-18:15⏩
- According to a Canadian source (Roy), the cessation of all US aid to Ukraine also means the end of US restrictions on Ukrainian strategy.
- Targets previously forbidden, such as the vulnerable Russian electrical system powering railways, can now be attacked.
- Russian railways are crucial for supplying their army, and their electric substations and transformers are highly vulnerable.
- Repairing and replacing these transformers is difficult for Russia.
- With the US no longer providing targeting assistance or aid, Ukraine may feel less constrained by previous restrictions on targets within Russia.
France and UK Offer Intelligence to Ukraine After US Pause
🎦 18:15-20:17⏩
- Following the US suspension of intelligence sharing, France is offering its intelligence to Kyiv.
- French Defence Minister Sébastien Le Cornu confirmed France's offer, noting the US suspension started the previous afternoon.
- He suggests it is more complicated for the UK to follow suit due to the Five Eyes intelligence community with the US.
- France's independent military-industrial complex and intelligence apparatus are highlighted as advantages in this situation.
- Politico reports that the UK is also prepared to fill the gap, particularly with aerial electronic surveillance, though their capabilities cannot match the US.
Jim Hines on Severity of US Intelligence Sharing Pause
🎦 20:17-26:24⏩
- Jim Hines, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, discusses the severe impact of the US intelligence sharing pause.
- He argues this is a greater blow to Ukraine than the weapons pause, as intelligence capabilities are unique to the US and irreplaceable.
- He cannot disclose specifics but emphasizes their importance for past Ukrainian successes.
- Hines contrasts weapons, which other nations can provide, with US intelligence, which is unparalleled.
- He criticises the Trump administration's approach of pressuring the victim (Ukraine) instead of the aggressor (Russia) to achieve peace.
- He highlights the lack of communication from the administration, even to ranking members of the Intelligence Committee, about these strategic shifts.
- He expresses embarrassment towards Ukrainian intelligence chief, whom he had recently assured of US support.
- Hines believes Trump's actions aim to bring Ukraine "to its knees" to force peace, a misguided approach that punishes the victim.
European-Led Ukrainian Air Protection Plan "SkyShield" Proposal
🎦 26:24-29:04⏩
- The Guardian reports on a European-led Ukrainian air protection plan called "SkyShield" to counter Russian missile attacks.
- The proposal involves a European air force of 120 fighter jets, operating separately from NATO, to secure skies over Kyiv and western Ukraine defensively.
- This aims to protect Ukrainian cities and infrastructure without escalating the conflict with Russia.
- The plan, supported by military experts like former NATO commanders, is seen as potentially more impactful than deploying ground troops.
- It would cover nuclear power plants and cities like Odessa and Lviv, but not the frontline or eastern Ukraine.
Renewed Impetus for SkyShield After US Actions
🎦 29:04-30:34⏩
- The SkyShield proposal has gained renewed momentum after Zelensky's meeting with Trump and the US halting military aid and intelligence sharing.
- Europe is realising it must take a leading role in supporting Ukraine and providing security guarantees.
- SkyShield is developed by former RAF planners and Ukrainian armed forces, presented to European defence ministries.
- Despite previous lack of appetite, recent events might prompt fresh consideration for protecting Ukrainian airspace, especially as part of security guarantees in a ceasefire.
- Jonathan strongly supports the SkyShield idea, believing it should be enacted.
Russian Millbloggers Report Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Near Prokrosk
🎦 30:34-32:38⏩
- Moving to frontline news, Russian sources report a Ukrainian counter-offensive, or series of local counter-attacks, in the Prokrosk sector.
- Russian millbloggers report Ukrainian forces expanding assaults and achieving tactical gains, with intense fighting involving up to two brigades attacking from Prokrosk and one from Uzponivka.
- They acknowledge struggling against Ukrainian advances.
- Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated Udachny, Kotlina, Panivka and Shevchenko village in this sector.
- Despite this positive news, Jonathan reiterates concern about the situation in Kursk.
- Translated Russian source reports AFU counter-attacks hitting Prokrosk, Chesediyar, and Toretsk, indicating Russian manpower shortages.
Russian Source on Difficulties Near Prokrosk: Logistics and Manpower Issues, Ukrainian Drone Dominance
🎦 32:38-35:33⏩
- A Russian source describes the situation near Prokrosk as "extremely difficult," citing disrupted logistics and personnel shortages near Chazyvyar.
- Despite slight Russian advances, logistics and manpower remain persistent problems.
- Urban combat continues in Turetsk amidst Ukrainian counter-attacks.
- The source criticises the "illusions" fed to commanders, highlighting the reality of personnel shortages and targeted logistics.
- They question the lack of personnel and Ukrainian air dominance, particularly in lower airspace, attributing Ukraine's growing advantage to 24/7 aerial assets, drones, electronic warfare, and relay systems.
- Ukrainian FPV drone ratio is claimed to be greater than six to one, which the Russian source finds "insane".
- They attribute this not just to fewer drones, but fewer drone operators, and suggest that many trained drone operators avoid frontline deployment due to poor treatment in some units.
- The source describes Russian soldiers as "debt-ridden losers or unfortunate conscripts," lacking noble motivation, and notes reluctance to sign indefinite contracts.
- They acknowledge AFU faces similar issues but drones are their "lifeline".
- The source highlights the challenge of operating even 2km from the frontline due to constant enemy drone surveillance and strike assets, recounting five drone attacks in one day.
Frustration with US Policy Amidst Russian Weakness and Ukrainian Drone Advantage
🎦 35:33-36:21⏩
- Jonathan expresses "massive frustration" upon hearing this Russian report, particularly at a time when Russia is culminating and its economy is under strain.
- He criticises the US decision to withhold aid to Ukraine and potentially relieve sanctions on Russia, arguing it undermines Ukraine's advantage.
- He reiterates his view that the US is "going out of its way to kill Ukrainians and help Russians," describing it as a "stunning turn of events."
Ukrainian Drone Corridor and Static Frontlines
🎦 36:21-37:10⏩
- The Russian source's report provides evidence supporting the idea of a Ukrainian drone-created corridor, making Russian movement difficult.
- In this zone, Russians struggle to move, deliver supplies, or evacuate wounded due to drone attacks.
- Jonathan believes Ukraine has increased drone production and operator training to create this effect, hindering Russian advances, especially on more static frontlines.
- Ukraine's drone advantage makes it difficult for Russians to move significantly, potentially creating a stalemate along much of the front.
Kursk Salient Weakening and Russian Glide Bomb Usage
🎦 37:10-38:09⏩
- While some frontlines are becoming static, Kursk salient is slowly weakening, impacting prospects of talks.
- Despite Ukrainian efforts, the salient is collapsing and likely to be the target of a major Russian operation, especially given the arms and intelligence embargo on Ukraine.
- Russia is reportedly concentrating its guided glide bomb usage on Kursk, heavily bombarding Ukrainian positions.
- While drones are effective, they offer limited defence against massive FAB bombs and glide bombs, similar to the situation in Avdiivka.
- The heavy glide bomb attacks are making the situation in Kursk challenging for Ukraine, similar to how they precipitated the fall of Avdiivka.
Russian Objective to Eliminate Kursk Before Negotiations and US Policy Favours Russia
🎦 38:09-39:33⏩
- Russia's goal is to eliminate the Kursk salient before any negotiations to deprive Ukraine of leverage.
- Jonathan highlights that the US message to Ukraine – aid won't resume until a date is set for negotiations – effectively benefits Russia.
- This policy creates a situation where Russia has no incentive to negotiate, as they can delay talks and continue to exploit the lack of US aid to Ukraine.
- US policy is seen as placing all leverage on Ukraine and none on Russia, incentivising Russia to avoid negotiations and maximise battlefield gains.
US Negotiating Skills Criticised and Russian Exploitation of US Weakness
🎦 39:33-40:47⏩
- Jonathan criticises the "stupid, naive, and selfish politicians running America," stating their negotiating skills are akin to a "six-year-old."
- He dismisses the idea of "5D chess" in US policy, seeing it as fundamentally flawed and damaging.
- Russia has announced it will exploit the US arms embargo to maximise battlefield gains, wasting no time in taking advantage.
- This immediate Russian response highlights the predictable and detrimental consequences of US policy.
- The US leadership is criticised for failing to comprehend the impact of their "single-layer thinking" and public pronouncements, which inadvertently aid Moscow.
- Unlike the US, Russia does not offer any reciprocal de-escalation, instead accelerating its efforts where possible.
- Russia is exploiting American weaknesses, ideological arguments from figures like Trump, and his personality flaws to their advantage.
- Marco Rubio is singled out for failing to challenge these damaging foreign policy decisions.
Russia Negotiating with Syria to Retain Military Bases
🎦 40:47-42:37⏩
- Annoying news: Russia is negotiating with Syria to retain its military bases.
- Negotiations involve billions of dollars in cash and investments in gas and ports.
- As the US engages in "political harakiri," China is increasing military spending while the US is cutting its defence budget by a significant percentage over five years.
- Despite China being identified as the "real threat," the US is seen as neglecting Syria and favouring Russia over Ukraine.
- Jonathan emphasizes the strategic importance of Syria, particularly Tartus and Russian air bases there, for both Europe and the US.
- Allowing Russia to consolidate its presence in Syria undermines past efforts in the region.
- Negotiations focus on reconstruction of Tartus port and access to phosphate and hydrocarbon fields in Palmyra region, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Wrap up
🎦 42:37-43:22⏩
- Jonathan concludes the "hits and losses" video, acknowledging its more political nature due to the direct impact of political decisions on military operations, particularly regarding HIMARS and air defence intelligence.
- He reiterates the conflicting reports on the extent of intelligence sharing pause but emphasizes that any reduction is detrimental to Ukraine and is effectively "a method of killing Ukrainians and not killing Russians," which he deems "despicable."
- He thanks viewers and signs off.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
In topic title 7, I have put (Baltics) in parenthesis - is it correct to assume that Lithuania is one of the Baltics? In topic title 23 and 24, I have used Prokrosk and Kursk - please confirm spellings are correct and consistent. In topic title 30, I have put "annoying news" - is this appropriate or should I reword to "concerning news"?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
The user wants me to summarise a YouTube transcript from ATP Geopolitics following a set of instructions and rules. I need to perform several tasks including extracting metadata, splitting the transcript into topics, adding timestamps, writing summaries, selecting a quote and identifying any queries. I will proceed step-by-step as outlined in the prompt, ensuring I adhere to all the formatting and XML tag requirements. I will double check all XML tags and ensure they are correctly opened and closed. I will also pay close attention to the British English writing style and Ukrainian spellings.