Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Donetsk Market Shelling - Who Did It?
Table of Contents 📖
"I think we've got definitely justification that this is or was a Russian false flag operation... I think just we're justified in believing the most probable hypothesis for that explains the data."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan Pearce introduces the video as an "extra" focusing on the recent shelling of a market in Donetsk. He plans to address a viewer comment questioning the event and share his analysis of the situation.
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Viewer Comment and Initial Reactions
🎦 00:17-01:15⏩
Jonathan reads a viewer comment alleging that Ukraine shelled the market using expensive NATO-supplied cluster munitions for maximum damage. He highlights the contradictory nature of the comment, pointing out that it claims Ukraine typically uses cheaper munitions on civilians. He expresses frustration at the eagerness to blame Ukraine, despite the scale of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
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Media Reports and Evidence of the Shelling
🎦 01:15-02:50⏩
Jonathan reviews various media reports on the shelling, noting that while some initially blamed Ukraine outright, others used more neutral language. He acknowledges photographic evidence confirming the attack's occurrence and the resulting casualties but emphasizes the need to determine responsibility.
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Analysing the Plausibility of Ukrainian Involvement
🎦 02:50-05:05⏩
Jonathan questions the logic of Ukraine targeting Ukrainian civilians in Donetsk, especially considering their limited ammunition and the ongoing Russian offensive in the region. He questions why Ukrainian forces would prioritize shelling a marketplace while under pressure from Russian attacks elsewhere.
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Inconsistencies and Suspicious Footage
🎦 05:05-06:03⏩
Jonathan points out several inconsistencies that cast doubt on Ukrainian responsibility. He references a video purportedly showing the aftermath, noting the unconcerned behaviour of passersby amidst supposedly dead and injured individuals. He mentions sound analysis suggesting the munitions were fired from a location too close for Ukrainian forces to be responsible.
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Malcontent News Analysis
🎦 06:03-09:48⏩
Jonathan presents analysis from Malcontent News, which suggests the attack was a Russian false flag operation. He cites their geolocation of the shelling site, analysis of debris patterns, and calculations based on munition ranges, all pointing to a launch site under Russian control. He reiterates the need for an independent investigation but acknowledges the difficulty due to Russia's swift cleanup of the scene.
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Sound Analysis and Munition Range
🎦 09:48-11:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the sound analysis of the shelling, highlighting the short intervals between firing and impact. He argues that even considering the high velocity of artillery shells, the sounds indicate a firing point too close for Ukrainian artillery to be responsible. He addresses a comment suggesting artillery shells travel near the speed of sound, explaining that the calculated ranges still point to a Russian-controlled launch site.
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Examining the "Fake" Aftermath Video
🎦 11:21-12:08⏩
Jonathan plays and analyses the video mentioned earlier, which was shared as evidence of the attack. He points out the lack of urgency or distress among those present, highlighting individuals casually walking by and using their phones while others lie seemingly dead or injured. He questions the authenticity of the scene, suggesting it was staged.
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Bayesian Analysis and Prior Probabilities
🎦 12:08-15:32⏩
Jonathan introduces the concept of Bayesian analysis as a method for evaluating competing hypotheses. He explains that prior probabilities, based on past behaviour and knowledge, play a crucial role. He argues that Russia's history of false flag operations, particularly in Donetsk, creates a high prior probability for this incident being another one. He stresses the need for strong evidence to overcome this prior probability and support the hypothesis of Ukrainian culpability.
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Russia's History of Targeting Civilians and Hospitals
🎦 15:32-18:00⏩
Jonathan further strengthens the prior probability of Russian responsibility by citing Russia's documented attacks on civilian targets, specifically hospitals. He references reports of over a thousand medical facilities targeted in Ukraine since 2014, as well as evidence of deliberate attacks on hospitals in Syria, even after their locations were shared with Russia through the UN for protection. He argues that this pattern of behaviour makes a Russian attack on a marketplace entirely plausible.
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Concluding Thoughts: A False Flag Operation?
🎦 18:00-21:02⏩
Jonathan reiterates his conclusion that based on available evidence, the most plausible explanation is a Russian false flag operation. He cites the combination of Russia's history of such tactics, inconsistencies in the evidence presented, and implausibility of Ukraine's motive and capability. He encourages viewers to consider the information presented and form their own conclusions. He addresses dismissive comments from those demanding more research, emphasizing that his conclusions are based on thorough analysis, even if he doesn't always explicitly detail every piece of information.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:02-21:10⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for watching and encouraging them to share their thoughts.
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