Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update
Table of Contents 📖
“I'd much rather a world where we can [celebrate Eurovision]… rather than a world where you're just constrained and… don't have any of this, and that's the world that, kind of, Russia wants.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers while watching the Eurovision Song Contest, drawing a contrast between its celebration of life and unity and the constraints imposed by the war in Ukraine. He expresses his appreciation for the event's positive message and acknowledges the efforts of JR for the frontline map updates.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kharkiv Oblast - Overview and Grey Zone
🎦 02:09-03:18⏩
Jonathan introduces a new "grey zone" feature on the map, developed by JR and based on analysis by Andrew Perpetua. This zone represents areas where control is contested between Ukrainian and Russian forces, particularly prominent in Kharkiv Oblast. He highlights the discrepancies between this assessment and information from Suriat Maps, underlining the complexities of the situation on the ground.
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Kharkiv Oblast - Russian Pushback and Ukrainian Resistance
🎦 03:18-05:50⏩
Focusing on two main areas of Russian pushback in Kharkiv, Jonathan acknowledges Ukrainian setbacks but emphasises the difficulty of establishing fortifications near the border. Despite territorial losses, Ukrainian forces are inflicting casualties and equipment damage on the advancing Russians, utilizing artillery and drones. Jonathan details specific villages affected by the fighting, referencing sources like Deep State Map and reports from the Kharkiv governor. He notes the heavy fighting but reassures that the city of Kharkiv itself is not under immediate threat of ground invasion. The bombardment of Vovchansk with over 20 GRAD rockets is highlighted, resulting in civilian casualties.
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Kharkiv Oblast - Contradictory Information and Media Focus
🎦 05:50-09:03⏩
Jonathan cites Andrew Perpetua, who describes receiving contradictory information about the situation in Kharkiv Oblast from trusted sources, suggesting a highly fluid and complex battlefield environment. He observes that despite uncertainties, the Russian offensive in Kharkiv is receiving significant media attention and speculates that this focus serves a public relations purpose for the Russians.
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Northeastern Frontline - Limited Territorial Change
🎦 09:03-10:42⏩
Moving to the northeastern frontline, Jonathan observes that while there's considerable military activity, it hasn't resulted in significant changes in territorial control, except for a small Russian advance east of Kolomyrchivka, near Stanivka. He notes Deep State Map's report of Ukrainian pushback but acknowledges this poses a challenge. Despite ongoing fighting in areas like Tors'ke, there are no significant changes reported in areas such as Lyman or Siveresk. Jonathan observes a discrepancy between the maps, with Syriac maps showing a recent Russian gain near the canal micro district in Bakhmut that isn't yet reflected in JR's map.
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Bakhmut - Russian Advance near Canal Micro District
🎦 10:42-11:28⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in Bakhmut, where Suriat Maps reports Russian forces have entered the canal micro district and secured a stretch of the T0504 road, potentially approaching a bridge (although its structural integrity is uncertain). This advance contradicts earlier claims of Ukrainians holding a defensive line near a culvert and tunnels in that area.
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Southern Front - Ukrainian Counter-Attack and Russian Gains
🎦 11:28-14:21⏩
Shifting to the southern front, Jonathan reports a Ukrainian counter-attack south of Ocheretyne, supported by Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, resulting in Russian losses in both personnel and equipment. Despite this Ukrainian success, Jonathan notes Russian advances near Pervomais'ke, pushing further into Netaylove. He confirms Suriat Maps and Deep State Maps align on this assessment. He observes the Russians are closing a pocket north of Novomykhailivka, between Pervomais'ke and the town itself. In Krasnohorivka, Deep State Maps reports further Russian advances, consistent with information from other mapping sources. Finally, in Mar'inka, Suriat Maps indicates Russian gains over the past week, with Russian forces re-entering previously abandoned areas and pushing Ukrainian troops back to a trench system in the town centre.
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Wrap up
🎦 14:21-14:52⏩
Jonathan concludes the frontline update, explaining he won't be discussing the Institute for the Study of War report due to time constraints. He jokingly mentions his multiple votes for Ukraine in the Eurovision Song Contest and encourages viewers to do the same.
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